zook's Picks: NBA December

[zook]

Starting a new thread because 1) the other one's too long, and 2) I'm changing my unit size from $30 to $20. Couple of reasons for the change... I withdrew some profits recently (from poker and football obv, not hoops) so my BR is smaller (units should be 1-2% of your roll) and I'm playing the NBA much more than I thought I would. Smaller units will make it easier for me to make multi-unit plays when I'm more confident and should let me bet big M/L dogs for full units instead of half (if I don't chicken out). My NFL units will stay $30 because I bet fewer games per week and I think my edge is higher there. Updated NBA YTD using the new unit size:

Spreads: 10-9
Moneylines: 3-7
Totals: 3-4
YTD: - 0.51 units

I'm going to try to post my early thoughts when lines come out the day before games, but wait to place bets until I've done more research. Some guidelines that will influence my picks:

1) Give strong consideration to home dogs.
2) Watch for early moves of 2 pts. or more on totals. This is often sharp money correcting an inaccurate early total.
3) Fade the Knicks and Celtics at home. Both are terrible teams with terrible coaches and hostile home crowds. Fading the Sixers at home may not be a bad play either, but AI is an x-factor.
4) As the season wears on, start fading young teams more and more... Charlotte, Portland, Memphis, Minnesota, Chicago, NY.
5) Bet the Spurs, still the class of the NBA imo. I'm starting to be won over by the Jazz and Magic though. Favorable lines will be hard to find for all three teams.

Don't think I'm playing either game tonight, but I'll definitely find something in the full card tomorrow.

[zook]

I lied. I'm playing this game because two solid cappers are:

LAL -4 vs. Utah (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Utah's coming off a big win against the Spurs last night, LA is rested and coming off a terrible loss to Milwaukee. Lakers should be motivated by that, in addition to the fact they lost to the Jazz earlier in the season.

Lines are up for tomorrow, a few I like... NY +8 vs. Det (-106), Orl -4 vs. Por (-105) & Sea -2.5 vs. Ind (-104). Won't play anything until tomorrow.

[zook]

Kobe went OFF! So sick. 19-25 for 52, 30 of them in the 3rd quarter. And I'm back in black in the NBA!

Spreads: 11-9
Moneylines: 3-7
Totals: 3-4
YTD: + 0.44 units

[ensign_lee]

Congratulations zook!

[zook]

Thanks lee. Let's hope I stay on the plus side for awhile.

I think my card is full for the night...

Sac +7 vs. DAL (-103) - 2 units @ Pinnacle
Sac M/L (+275) vs. DAL - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Tailing lee and his favorite capper on these plays. I think Dallas is a little overrated on a 10-game win streak and Sac is playing well right now. With Nowitzki's vision possibly a little blurry, I'll take the dog here. Wanted to get +7.5, but oh well.

Mil vs. Pho OVER 219 (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I'm testing something I read in an academic article recently, that early in the season totals that move more than 2 points usually move in the right direction. The authors show that you win over the whole season betting these games, and you can be very profitable in the early part of the season. This line is REALLY high, but it's moved up 2.5 points since it opened so I'm taking a shot. These two teams have gone over 219 4 out of their past 5 meetings and they're both rested and healthy.

SEA -3.5 vs. Ind (-102) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

One of two square plays I like tonight. The other is Orlando at Portland, but here's the difference... public's all over both Orlando and Seattle, but only the Seattle line has moved. I really like Orlando, but lee's taught me that when 70% of the public is on a team and the line doesn't move, that's fishy. I like Seattle here because they should be desperate after three straight losses and Indy's likely overvalued on a two-game win streak.

[zook]

Not a good night... Sacto got destroyed and the Sonics almost covered, but missed a couple of free throws at the end. My experiment chasing the total worked out well at least, Mil/Pho went to 238! Well, I'm glad I decreased my unit size at least.

Spreads: 11-11
Moneylines: 3-8
Totals: 4-4
YTD: - 2.61 units

A few games I like tomorrow... Tor +3 @ NY, Phi +5 v@ NJ, Ind @ Den UNDER 212... actually I like the last one enough to place it:

Ind @ Den UNDER 212 (-108) - 1.5 unit @ Pinnacle

Both teams on back-to-back, Indy's only gone over this total once all season and Denver's games have slowed down recently. I may be missing something, but this looks great to me.

edit: oops, I screwed up my unit size and made this 1.5 instead of 1. Bet this won't be the last time I do that.

[zook]

Placed two more, courtesy of a capper that's been hot:

Sea +9 vs. Utah (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Mia +2.5 vs. Mem (-108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Really like Miami getting points against Memphis. DWade had a terrible game on Thursday, I think he'll come back strong. Still thinking about Phi +5 @ NJ.

[zook]

After reading another capper's writeup, I added a unit to Mia +2.5 at (-112) and played the OVER 183.5 in that game too. Giving me:

Ind @ Den UNDER 212 (-108) - 1.5 unit @ Pinnacle
Sea +9 vs. Utah (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Mia +2.5 vs. Mem (-110) - 2 units @ Pinnacle
Mia vs. Mem OVER 183.5 (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Ok, one more. Two solid cappers posted this independently, so I just had to tail

Clippers -2.5 vs. Lakers (-107) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Lots of action tonight!

[ensign_lee]

3-2 on the night, with a scare at Miami. But if I did the math correctly, you're up...1.5 units (and then subtract juice)! Sweet!

[zook]

Thanks lee! You're right, +1.2 units, can't complain about that.

Spreads: 13-12
Moneylines: 3-8
Totals: 5-5
YTD: - 1.41 units

Not sure if I'm playing any NBA today... damn Det -4 @ Cha is tempting, but 75% of the public's on Detroit and the line hasn't moved!

[zook]

One play for tonight:

Orl vs. LAC UNDER 186.5 (-114) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I'm chasing this total. It opened at 189 and has come down 2.5 pts. and looks to go lower. All the trends point to the being an under and Orlando's #2 in the NBA in opponent FG%. Plus the Clippers are coming off a back-to-back and looked out-of-sync against the Lakers... I like this play.

[zook]

Added a bet from a solid capper. Only a small play from him, but I like it.

Por -2.5 vs. Atl (-110) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

D'oh! Schooled on both bets. Oh well, at least it was a good day in the NFL for me

Spreads: 13-13
Moneylines: 3-8
Totals: 5-6
YTD: - 3.41 units

[zook]

Still trying to get the hang of the NBA. Have done fine following other cappers but have gotten my ass handed to me capping myself and making multi-unit plays. Still having fun and learning though, which I why I do this.

A solid capper just posted this so I'm tailing:

Dal vs. Was OVER 203.5 (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

It looks good to me... Dallas has had two overs after a few consecutive unders, Washington has been hitting overs at home consistently.

Not sure what else I like tonight. Maybe Mil +7.5 @ Utah or Golden State +8.5 @ San Antonio.

[zook]

Missed it by a half point, damn. Glad I adjusted my unit size downward.

Spreads: 13-13
Moneylines: 3-8
Totals: 5-7
YTD: - 4.41 units

Thinking about playing some M/L road dogs tonight, Miami, Sacramento, GS and Portland are all tempting.

[zook]

My NBA picks have been pretty miserable recently, but a solid capper likes GS +7.5 tonight and I was thinking about it already, so I jumped on it. Juice was -112 on 7.5, so I sold a half-point. I hope that doesn't come back and bite me in the ass.

GS +7 vs. Hou (-103) - 2 units @ Pinnacle
GS M/L vs. Hou (+280) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Careful with the moneylines against Houston. Houston seems to be one of those teams that will win, but not cover.

But that may be just the homer in me wanting to be able to win while Houston wins too.

A note: Houston has only lost one game so far at home.

[zook]

Thanks lee. Just taking a shot here, just taking a shot

[zook]

Added this, from another respected capper:

Dal -2.5 vs. NJ (+100) - 2 units @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Added this from the same capper, sorry to be on the opposite side of lee:

Mia +6.5 vs. LAC (-102) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

what? Did Procapper really just post that? Aww...fuck me.

Thanks a lot, procapper. Way to go against Kojak and screw me all up. This should be a no play for me now, but the play is already in.

Oh well...

(It's funny how only you, me, and bigspenda should have any idea what I'm talking about).

[zook]

Goddamn, GS got owned. Dallas destroyed NJ though, so I'm only down 1 unit so far. Need Miami to cover to pull me to even...

Spreads: 14-14
Moneylines: 3-9
Totals: 5-7
YTD: - 5.41 units

[ensign_lee]

Yeah. GS got COMPLETELY owned. WTF?

I didn't know my Rockets were that good. GO ROCKETS!

[zook]

Miami covered, thankfully, making it a -0.02 unit night.

Spreads: 14-14
Moneylines: 3-9
Totals: 5-7
YTD: - 5.43 units

Few games I like for tomorrow, in order of preference... Was +1.5 vs NY, NO +8 vs. LAL, Phi +8.5 vs. Chi, Orl +1.5 vs. Ind, Hou -1 vs. Min.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Was vs NY I think Was is a good bet. They haven't won a game on the road so you know they are going to come out fired up. Also, the way they were beat last time was by the kind of hustle play that only happens 1 or 2 games a year.

[zook]

Thanks ISF. Chance of letdown after they beat Dallas the other night, but I still like this play a lot.

[zook]

Three plays tonight, all from cappers. Put 3 units on Washington b/c it was already my favorite pick and a solid capper posted it as his too.

Was M/L vs. NY (+102) - 3 units @ Pinnacle
SA vs. Cha UNDER 188 (-110) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
IND -2 vs. Orl (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Adding some road dog M/L plays:

Atl M/L vs. Den (+545) - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle
Phi M/L vs. Chi (+420) - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle
NO M/L vs. LAL (+360) - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Big night for me, 5-1 for +9 units!!! Drinking some whiskey and celebrating

Spreads: 16-14
Moneylines: 5-10
Totals: 6-7
YTD: + 3.50 units

[ensign_lee]

Nicely done zook!

Nice call on the WAS moneyline!

[zook]

Thanks lee. And thanks ISF and brewers7 for making me even more sure of the Washington play. After tonight, this thread deserves a

[zook]

Couple of cappers posted this play, so I'm on it:

DAL - 7 vs. Det (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I'm thinking about the Nets +3, for the same reason lee is (70% of the public on Phoenix, line moved a half-point) but Phoenix is just SO much better than NJ. It will be tough to pull the trigger.

[ensign_lee]

Couple of cappers posted this play, so I'm on it:

DAL - 7 vs. Det (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I'm thinking about the Nets +3, for the same reason lee is (70% of the public on Phoenix, line moved a half-point) but Phoenix is just SO much better than NJ. It will be tough to pull the trigger.

THAT'S why it pays to not know much about the NBA.

[zook]

THAT'S why it pays to not know much about the NBA.

You're blushing, but you're probably right!

Did you see brewers7 like Detroit +7 and the M/L? Blech.

[bigspenda73]

I did but I already trusted you boys

[zook]

Alright, I succumbed to the Pinny lean... juice is really high on NJ +3, even though all of the public is on Phoenix. I'll hop on the M/L with lee:

NJ M/L vs. Pho (+129) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Carefule with the Pinny lean this close to gametime. It's really only effective until about an hour or two before gametime.

At the last second, the Pinny lean is EXTREMELY unreliable.

[zook]

Huh, why would that be? I assume the line/juice moves late usually because of sharp action, no?

[ensign_lee]

Not necessarily. The late line/juice moves would be because of other books (assumedly) dumping off their action on Pinnacle. Pinnacle would then adjust their juice based on their software.

Pinny leans are designed to 'sucker' in action from the public. It's hard to do that when the line is onyl up for a minute or two.

[zook]

Gave a little back tonight. Nets coulda, woulda, shoulda and Dallas didn't have a chance. I have to admit that I didn't love either play, and was feeling that way before both games. I went with them because other cappers posted them. (And of course I wouldn't be typing that if both picks won.) I think I'm going to try to cut down my number of plays a little... I feel like I'm falling into the old action-junkie trap.

Spreads: 16-15
Moneylines: 5-11
Totals: 6-7
YTD: +1.50 units

[zook]

A few plays I like for tomorrow, mostly squares I'm afraid... Hou -5 vs. Cha, LAC +8.5 vs. SA, Utah +1 vs. Min, Mil -5.5 vs. Mem.

[zook]

Just put two units on Was:

Was -1.5 vs. PHI (-105) - 2 units @ Pinnacle

Iverson and Webber are questionable with back injuries and the rumor's out that Iverson has demanded to be traded. If that happens today and he sits out, this line will shoot up a few points.

[zook]

A capper just posted a play that I already liked, so I'm on it:

MIL -5 vs. Mem (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Added a pick of my own:

NO +3.5 vs. SEA (-108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Sonics are without Ray Allen and haven't played well at home this season. NO may have a letdown after their big Lakers upset, but I don't think Seattle's good/deep enough to take advantage.

[zook]

Wasn't going to play Orlando, but now two excellent cappers have posted it as a play, so I'm on it. A capper also posted the NO play, so I added a unit to that. Giving me a lot of action tonight, but all bets I'm confident about:

Was -1.5 vs. PHI (-105) - 2 units @ Pinnacle
MIL -5 vs. Mem (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
NO +3.5 vs. SEA (-108) - 2 units @ Pinnacle
ORL -4.5 vs. Det (-107) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

2-2 on the night, so I lost the juice - 0.16 units.

Spreads: 18-17
Moneylines: 5-11
Totals: 6-7
YTD: +1.34 units

[ensign_lee]

Did a lot better than me. Favorites went 9-3 on the night ATS and 10-2 SU. Hah...f*#^ me.

[zook]

Sorry to hear that lee. Let's get em tonight.

Made this play b/c a couple of good cappers did, although I got a worse line. Might add a unit later.

LAC -2.5 vs. MEM (-108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Added a unit on the Clippers. Also like the Pacers tonight. They're 5-1 ATS this year on back-to-backs and Cleveland hasn't been covering big spreads at home this year. Here's what I have for tonight:

LAC -2.5 vs. MEM (-108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
LAC -3 vs. MEM (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Ind +8.5 vs. CLE (+101) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Ind M/L vs. CLE (+355) - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Clippers covered, Indy got killed. Oh well, still a winning night, +0.36 units.

Spreads: 19-18
Moneylines: 5-12
Totals: 6-7
YTD: +1.70 units

[ensign_lee]

.36 units > 0 units > -10 units.

Well done, zook!

And yes: Indy got demolished.

[zook]

A couple for today, from a couple of cappers:

CHA +7.5 vs. Pho (-101) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
CHA vs. Pho OVER 212 - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Added this, courtesy of lee and his capper:

SA vs. LAL UNDER 189 (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

0-3 on the day. Charlotte bets looked great at halftime but they couldn't find the basket the second half. Thankfully the NFL more than made up for my NBA ineptitude today.

YTD:
Spreads: 19-19
Moneylines: 5-12
Totals: 6-9
YTD: -1.30 units

[ensign_lee]

0-3 for me today as well. Thank you NBA.

[zook]

They do say it's the hardest sport to cap...

[zook]

Bos @ NY: battle of two bad, terribly coached teams who both play poorly at home. I'll take the road dog tyvm.

Bos +2.5 vs. NY (-108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Bos M/L vs. NY (+124) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

From a capper:

Utah -1 vs. Dal (-105) - 2 units @ Pinnacle

edit: Another good capper posted this as his play, so I added a unit.

[zook]

3-0 on the night +4 units. Very happy about the Boston win because that was my play and my plays have not been good so far this season.

YTD:
Spreads: 21-19
Moneylines: 6-12
Totals: 6-9
YTD: +2.75 units

[zook]

Posted by a capper. Hawks are missing Joe Johnson.

Den -6 vs. ATL (-101) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Added another. This was the only play I personally like tonight and a capper posted it as a "lean" so I went for it:

MIL -5 vs. Sea (-104) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Last one for the night, coming from two good cappers.

Sac vs. GS OVER 213.5 (-108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Well done last night, zook!

And I'm glad that one of 'your' plays came through in such a big way (it was my only win last night too ). Congratulations!

Looks like we might be opposite on one bet tonight (and to a point where we could both lose ) but good luck to you anyway. Looks like i'm hitting a slump, so you're probably good to go.

P.S. PM me who took the SAC/GS over, please.

[zook]

Thanks lee! I sweated out that Boston win as they let a 25-point halftime lead dwindle to 3 in the final minutes

I wouldn't worry too much about us being on opposite sides of Mil/Sea... it's mostly my play I just think Seattle can't keep playing this well without Ray Allen, so when I saw pro had it as a lean, I went for it.

GL to you.

[zook]

Another good night, 2-1. Unfortunately lee and I both lost the Mil/Sea play

YTD:
Spreads: 22-20
Moneylines: 6-12
Totals: 7-9
YTD: +3.66 units

[ensign_lee]

Congrats zook. Woot 1-10 stretch for me...

[zook]

That sucks lee. I hope you come back strong tomorrow. And whenever you lose a few bets, remember Joey Porter

A capper posted an early pick and I'm going to be out of town tomorrow, so I'm on it:

Min vs. SA OVER 182.5 (-102) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Huh, 104 the first half made it look like the over was a can't miss. Then 77 the second half. Ugh.

YTD:
Spreads: 22-20
Moneylines: 6-12
Totals: 7-10
YTD: +2.66 units

[zook]

Hate betting Charlotte, but they're at home, Orlando has huge injury problems, and as lee pointed out, the public's on Orl, but the line moves the other way. Two cappers are on this M/L taboot.

CHA M/L vs. Orl (+112) - 1 unit @Pinnacle

[zook]

One more for tonight, from a capper:

Spurs -7.5 vs. NO (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Three games, three bets... probably not the best idea, but I really respect this capper:

GS -4 vs. Hou (+100) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

2-1 on the night, +1.07 units. Grinding away in the NBA.

YTD:
Spreads: 23-21
Moneyline Dogs: 7-12
Totals: 7-10
YTD: +3.73 units

[zook]

Just got this after seeing a capper post it:

Tor vs. NJ OVER 192 (-108) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

A couple others I'll looking at... Den -3 vs. Bos (fading the Celtics at home) and the Clippers -2.5 vs. Por.

[zook]

Three favorites for tonight. The first two are from a hot capper, the third is my play:

CHI -7.5 vs. Mil (-103) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
UTAH -7.5 vs. Sac (-104) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Den -3. vs. BOS (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I'm going to keep looking, but that's probably it.