am i ever winning here?

[will641]

villain is unknown, i tend to default that he isnt very good. the only hand i can put him on this line with is AQ, because he is probably scared on flop and turn that i have KK/AA, so he calls flop and check behinds turn, an when he fills up, he throws in a half pot bet. i wanted to call this, but i think one of my biggest leaks is looking people up light in situations like this, and in general 3 bet pots where i dont have the nuts i feel like i suck at.

Edit: i forgot to mention that he could def. be bluffing AK, but i feel like if hes bluffing he is probably going to bet around $45.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($104.25)
UTG ($101.15)
MP ($98)
Button ($67.70)
Hero ($103.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J.
UTG raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, UTG calls $10.

Flop: ($29) Q, 3, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20.

Turn: ($69) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: ($69) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $30, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $69

[IowaSkinsFan]

def fold river
In threebet pots, especially after someone raises UTG, your opps range is very tight. When someone calls a threebet oop there most likely hand is AQ/KQ as well.

I probably check the flop too.

[griffey24]

Your pot odds are pretty good here, you're gettin better than 3:1 even, so you only have to be ahead like less than 25% of the time.

If there's any chance he is value betting any pair 44-TT, or even A high to get you off a chop I think based on pot odds this should be a call.

[bigslikk]

Don't know what he has exactly, but I agree with you: his range is beating you. He could have AQ, KQ, overpairs, maybe AdKd. I don't think the villain "fears" anything on the turn, really.

[will641]

just throwing this out there, how about a block bet?

[griffey24]

Your pot odds are pretty good here, you're gettin better than 3:1 even, so you only have to be ahead like less than 25% of the time.

If there's any chance he is value betting any pair 44-TT, or even A high to get you off a chop I think based on pot odds this should be a call.

sorry.. didn't notice this was a 3-bet pot.

ok I think that weighs it more towards a fold... and yah i prob c/c flop given that you're wa/wb.

Fold is prob best.. but his bet is so damn small.. I just can't fold to such small bets.. though that doesn't mean you shouldn't

[Ash256]

Anyone like $55 on river? It looks like we have AK IMO

[IowaSkinsFan]

Not enough value to fire a small bet, i'd def just c/f.

[Ash256]

Not enough value to fire a small bet, i'd def just c/f.

Would you agree with me that there's more value (and a much higher expectation) in betting 61 than 34?

(Though I'm still undecided on whether betting is the best option atm)

[Numbr2intheWorld]

you might want to consider calling preflop against an UTG, unknown full stack.