Flush Draw

[langaan]

If you're holding AX diamonds....

you're in position, mid-position player raises 4x pfop and 2 callers including yourself..

flop comes Kd, 10d, 6h

initial raiser bets 2/3rds pot, other folds....

odds are against you here, correct? how often do you call this?

turn comes 8c...

raiser bets 2/3rds again...

fold? if when... ??

how strictly do you follow pot odds here and how big of a factor is implied here..


on a dif note, how exactly does pt calculate BB/100 ?
it looks to me as though 1BB = 2 big blinds ??

[langaan]

in the above case,
if the pot is $40 after turn and his river bet is $30,
that would put my flush draw at a -EV of $3.41... is that correct?

my math is that im gonna win 20% of the time, and lose 80,,,
so i cant call any more than a 20% / final pot bet when im certain my missed flush is a losing hand... correct?

also, how do you apply EV on the turn? do you include odds of the turn and river cards for your ev on the turn?

confusing

[langaan]

im a little confused how to use odds on the turn vs river...

when im up against a 2/3 bet ofter flop, i have odds to call a flush draw if i use turn and river together, but if i am using the odds on hitting it on the turn only, odds are against me...

same goes on the river, if i called a flop bet based on odds of hitting on turn or river combined, and miss on the turn, my odds are out the window on a river bet...

[will641]

well first of all, the only thing villain bets on flop isnt TP. in either case, i raise flop and get a fold at least 60% of the time.

[langaan]

well first of all, the only thing villain bets on flop isnt TP. in either case, i raise flop and get a fold at least 60% of the time.

do you mean it isnt the only thing he bets?

[will641]

yes

[langaan]

yes

dont matter what hes betting with at this point because im looking at a flush draw. will re-think if board is paired ...

my real question is about how ev should be used on the turn and river.

odds of hitting flush on turn or river are about 1/3, do you use those odds?
or do you use the approx 20% on each street when calculating ev?

[Pelion]

dont matter what hes betting with at this point because im looking at a flush draw.

Of course it does. If hes usually only betting strong hands then we have good implied odds so we arent bothered about not having express odds.

If his range is wider so he can have stuff like QQ/77/AQ then calling is might be bad but raising might be good.


As for your original question Im never folding the flop but raising is often better than calling. There are also many players who you can call the flop and they will check/fold the turn without a strong hand. Against these guys we have extra steal value that makes up for our poor pot odds.

[eugmac]

If his range is wider so he can have stuff like QQ/77/AQ then calling is might be bad but raising might be good.

Just so it's clear that you understand what Pelion said, if he's tight and only bets good hands you have implied odds to just call his bet. If he is loose and bets a lot of stuff, then you should do a semi-bluff raise because he will often fold if he doesn't have at least a pair of kings, and you have plenty of outs just in case he calls your raise.

The 2:1 odds for a flush draw to hit on the turn or river are only useful if it's the last bet you're going to have to call, i.e. if villain is going all in on the flop and you the pot is laying you 2:1, it's +EV to call. If you are very likely going to have to call another big bet on the turn, the 2:1 odds are not that useful. On the other hand as Pelion mentioned if the opp will give up on the turn after the flop bet is called very often then taking a floating line by taking the pot away when he checks can be good, as can be just checking behind and taking your free card. Raising is good for a lot of reasons including disguising your hand when your flush does come. It's a pretty transparent play to keep calling with a flush draw then start raising when the flush completes.

[langaan]

If his range is wider so he can have stuff like QQ/77/AQ then calling is might be bad but raising might be good.

Just so it's clear that you understand what Pelion said, if he's tight and only bets good hands you have implied odds to just call his bet. If he is loose and bets a lot of stuff, then you should do a semi-bluff raise because he will often fold if he doesn't have at least a pair of kings, and you have plenty of outs just in case he calls your raise.

The 2:1 odds for a flush draw to hit on the turn or river are only useful if it's the last bet you're going to have to call, i.e. if villain is going all in on the flop and you the pot is laying you 2:1, it's +EV to call. If you are very likely going to have to call another big bet on the turn, the 2:1 odds are not that useful. On the other hand as Pelion mentioned if the opp will give up on the turn after the flop bet is called very often then taking a floating line by taking the pot away when he checks can be good, as can be just checking behind and taking your free card. Raising is good for a lot of reasons including disguising your hand when your flush does come. It's a pretty transparent play to keep calling with a flush draw then start raising when the flush completes.

ok,
so for the above example, lets say villain is running 20/15..

say i call his post flop bet, and the turn doesnt improve anyones hand...

so i have 4:1 odds on the flush, villain likely has TPTK or better...

he bets likely puts me on a flush draw and bets pot on river... or even 2/3

[jyms]

What do you put fvillain on for a hand? Is your A any good for outs?