PSA: The long term is really long...

[Jager]

This month has been the worst run I have ever had.

14 Sessions played:

8 Winning
6 Losing

Ive played 36.6k hands. Some stats:

WTSD: 28.2%
W$SD: 47.16%
W$WSF: 45.53%

Winrate: (2.48)
Net: -3637.2

The downswings:

14 BIs
8 BIs
18 BIs
12 BIs
11 BIs

Yes all in 36k hands.

The graph:



What does all this amount to? Over my previous 150k hands I ran ~5.o bb/100. Poker is a long term game. If at any time you fail to acknowledge this fact, or underestemate the short term luck, you are weakening your edge. I really feel as though I was playing winning poker this month, my W$WSF as evidence, but I will not end up a winner. The frustration has been very hard to combat , and at times has taken its toll mentally. I have played only 1 session this month where I was not down at least 1.5 BIs. Do not get down on yourself if things aren't going your way, continue to plug away and maintain the right mindset.

[will641]

damn man that is running shitty. i thought the worst you ever had was a 40 bi downswing or something?

and is all this 200nl or mixed with 400nl?

[Jager]

This is all 200nl, I only played a little 400 this month. I had a 40 BI downer, but it was only over like 10k hands, nothing sustained like this is.

[noble007]

unlucky, gl, good mindset.

Doesn't a high W$WSF & a low W$ at SD% (on a tag) indicate that people are able to find folds against you when you have good hands?
ie. you could be easy to read

(Unless you're lag in which case it indicates you're using aggression
to win alot of pots.)

I'm not sure about that

[Halv]

Wtf 40BI in 10k hands? Tell me there was a decent bit of tilt in there or I will spend the rest of my career fearing variance.

[Jager]

Already I checked the old 40 BI downer. 53k(over 12 days) hands with a W$WSF of 38 and a W$SD of 51%. It also includes 15 BIs at 2/4, where I didn't do too well. The difference here is that I am exponentially better player . I am running around 28/23/3 these days, so I think that is Lag. In the last 5o hands or so I played of this stretch I had QQ v AA 3 times, either AI pre or 4bet pots.

[griffey24]

unlucky, gl, good mindset.

Doesn't a high W$WSF & a low W$ at SD% (on a tag) indicate that people are able to find folds against you when you have good hands?
ie. you could be easy to read

(Unless you're lag in which case it indicates you're using aggression
to win alot of pots.)

I'm not sure about that

I was gonna say something similar to this.

I'm getting rocked in feb, but my W$WSF is almost ALWAYS at like 50%, no matter what (I run 19/16ish fwiw). But this doesn't say anything about how you're running, cause its likely when you're running bad that you're still winning a lot of similar small pots but the large pots (set over set, overpair vs set etc) you're getting owned at and losing huge one's.

I don't think W$WSF is that good of an indicator of how well you're playing.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Why are you running 28/23?

[benny999]

i'm not saying i know how...i actually am just getting back to even after 100k+ hands and a 30+ BI swing myself...but there are ways to have a good win rate and not swing as much.
some things that i've improved over that swing are adapting better to different players/history, sizing bets better, table selection, and just reading/analyzing better in general.

[Jager]

Why are you running 28/23?

Why not????

[sauce123]

seems pretty good to me

[trump]

Isn't this a bankroll management thing? Can't you do something like the following to help prevent going too far in the hole?:



(credit for the image to kingscascade's mangatang)

[Renton]

i think you are weakening your edge by dwelling on this completely irrelevant information instead of working on fixing your leaks, improving your tilt control, and... gasp... playing more.

[Renton]

and i wouldn't be picking on you, but unless i am mistaken, you have had several of these insane downswings. Isn't it possible that you have some tilt issues?

[Deanglow]

the first thing i thought about when I saw that graph was wow this guy has major tilt issues. Maybe after losing a buyin or two you just play bad.

[Fnord]

Roughly the smaller your edge, the worse your swings are going to be. If I ran like that I would seriously be considering my edge. Then again I'm probably way to sensitive to stuff like that and game selection. I don't think I've ever run worse than than ~12 buy-ins (big bet) or 150BB (short-handed limit.)

[Jager]

Well I have been relatively swing free since mid August. I feel that I may tilt off a buy in or 2 here and there, but it does not add up to running like this. This is just a legitimate bad run. I started the month with several standard coolers, then ran ~6 bb/100 below expectation for around 10k in the middle, then ended the month with more coolers. Again I am not complaining, just pointing out an interesting group of hands where I played good enough to be a winner, but came out on the wrong end. This really could happen to any of us.

[wufwugy]

I've been there, not sure what to make of it though.

I like how CTS said in his latest video how Plastic doesn't ever swing lower than 10 bi because he never tilts.

[wufwugy]

Why are you running 28/23?

I'm trying to work out a 35/32 game or the like. Should be fucking awwwwesome.

[Fnord]

I like how CTS said in his latest video how Plastic doesn't ever swing lower than 10 bi because he never tilts.

Unless you have very serious tilt issues, I think game/seat selection is more important.

When I used to play a lot of tables at once, I would set an egg timer for an hour, then re-evaluate all my tables. Usually I'd force myself to close at least one.

[wufwugy]

Preaching to the choir. I can't play more than 4 tables, table/seat select reliiiiiigiously, and hate hate hate less than 5ptbb winrate.

[will641]

I like how CTS said in his latest video how Plastic doesn't ever swing lower than 10 bi because he never tilts.

Unless you have very serious tilt issues, I think game/seat selection is more important.

When I used to play a lot of tables at once, I would set an egg timer for an hour, then re-evaluate all my tables. Usually I'd force myself to close at least one.

unless you are playing FR it is pretty hard to exercise good seat selection, because all the good tables are full typically. so it seems difficult to impossible to have it both ways.

[Fnord]

If you always replaced your worst table every few minutes you would tend to have better tables even if you picked new tables at random.

[mcatdog]

Jager,

You posted some lame whiny stuff in your blog like a year ago, but you seem like a good guy and people on FTR give you too much crap IMO. Congrats on your success the last few months.

[wufwugy]

Selection is a technique that takes much practice and patience to hone. Just as important as having good selection is knowing how to use it. So often sixmax tables are five winners/breakevens and one loser. I continue to switch tables until I am to the left of the loser and pound on him again and again until his stack is mine. Then I leave and find another donkey with a seat to his left. Oftentimes this is via waiting lists on random tables but so be it.

A big thing most think about selection is not having good players to their left. While I think this is a thing, I do not think it's big since most good players do not exploit other good players. Now if you're sitting to the left of a lag who actually understands full exploitation you'll be a loser in that game no matter what. Because a truly excellent player understands that the player to his right, no matter who, is his bitch. I look forward to the day that I'm confident enough and skilled enough to pound on the player to my right incessantly until he becomes impassioned with tilt and gives me all his chips then leaves the table and commits seppuku. I theorize that a truly awesome player spends a lot of time specifically tilting the player to his right.

Another strategy is what to do when tables are all full. Sit at an unoccupied table. Those who show up later are often fish since most regs are bots who don't wanna play out of their zone. I've gotten some pretty sick juicy tables this way, but it doesn't work as often as I'd like. Oftentimes it becomes a shortstack haven, sometimes fish don't show up, and sometimes nothing but regs show up.

The best option, however, is to not select and just be the best player at your stake. Selection is actually kinda an enemy to somebody striving to become as good as he can. Players like CTS could sit at any 5/10 table and run it wild.

If I had two stations to my right and three nits to my left I would be rolling a 12+ptbb winrate I'm sure.

[Genitruc]

Selection is a technique that takes much practice and patience to hone. Just as important as having good selection is knowing how to use it. So often sixmax tables are five winners/breakevens and one loser. I continue to switch tables until I am to the left of the loser and pound on him again and again until his stack is mine. Then I leave and find another donkey with a seat to his left. Oftentimes this is via waiting lists on random tables but so be it.

A big thing most think about selection is not having good players to their left. While I think this is a thing, I do not think it's big since most good players do not exploit other good players. Now if you're sitting to the left of a lag who actually understands full exploitation you'll be a loser in that game no matter what. Because a truly excellent player understands that the player to his right, no matter who, is his bitch. I look forward to the day that I'm confident enough and skilled enough to pound on the player to my right incessantly until he becomes impassioned with tilt and gives me all his chips then leaves the table and commits seppuku. I theorize that a truly awesome player spends a lot of time specifically tilting the player to his right.

Another strategy is what to do when tables are all full. Sit at an unoccupied table. Those who show up later are often fish since most regs are bots who don't wanna play out of their zone. I've gotten some pretty sick juicy tables this way, but it doesn't work as often as I'd like. Oftentimes it becomes a shortstack haven, sometimes fish don't show up, and sometimes nothing but regs show up.

The best option, however, is to not select and just be the best player at your stake. Selection is actually kinda an enemy to somebody striving to become as good as he can. Players like CTS could sit at any 5/10 table and run it wild.

If I had two stations to my right and three nits to my left I would be rolling a 12+ptbb winrate I'm sure.

wouldya look at that ass`

good post, btw

my 2 cents : don't waste your time trying to beat the regs at 1-2. Table/seat select as well as you can and start worrying about destroying the regs at 5/10 when you can make some decent cash.

At least that's my current perspective, coming from somebody who took great pleasure in pissing off all of the regs for a long time. Who cares about owning regs at 1-2 or 2-4. yay. I wanna own fish at 10-20.

Fastest and least swingy way there is to find easy tables to beat.

[Fnord]

Short handed tables with empty seats is a great way to get into a sick game. Particualy if you know enough not to suck at playing that short (in the case of 6-max HU or 3 handed, for full ring learn 4-6 handed.) The specialists are playing HU and short handed max tables so you will run into far more than your share of terrible players that short and many won't adapt as the table fills.

[Marshall28]

i have very similar downswings to u.

i play similar numbers also.

i have very big upswings too though ...

i dont seat select, i just dont play at tables w/ a bunch of nits, i want people there that i can get to gamble w/ me, especially the people to my right, if i can get them to gamble, they will fold often enough that the times im gambling im basically freerolling.

[Jager]

Actually my table/seat selection are very good. My simple test after a few orbits is that if my raises are more 3bets than Isolations, there better be a HUGE fish at that table without anyone good to my left. Its a lot easier to play when you aren't 3betting as much, and you are constantly isoing fishy limpers.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Why are you running 28/23?

Why not????

I'm not asking why not, im asking why. This isnt meant to be some condescending question but from what ive experienced from your postflop game the last time I played you 28/23 doesn't fit.

[Jager]

ISF:

You must be insanely good to determine the quality of my postflop play in the 500 hands we've played since July.

Since I switched to 6 max I tried to play a Tag style. All the forums say that this is the way to beat the games. In the last few months I have realized that this has been a waste of time for me, round hole/square peg... It just didn't work for me, I was a <2.0 winner for almost all of last year. Now my game varies from 24/20 to 30/25 and sometimes higher, it just averaged out to 28/23 this month.

[riverturnflop]

The easiest way to know if you're good or not is to ask those you who play against if you're good. And remember to ask your friends, not sharks who say you are good to keep you in the games.