Guud shove or bad shove?

[MuddyWicket]

Ok this is 5cent poker, the first limper was a complete retard losing loads with all sorts of crap so I wanted to isolate him so I raised with marginal crap preflop and when he called the flop bet he could literally still have nothing and given the first guy was cbetting I wasn't convinced he would like me reraising him big and there was a lot of cash in the pot. So I thought it was worth my while seeing as I wasnt calling...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button ($6.30)
SB ($4.95)
BB ($5.13)
UTG ($5.42)
UTG+1 ($19.18)
MP1 ($6.55)
Hero ($7.02)
CO ($5.24)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , .
UTG calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.2, CO calls $0.20, 2 folds, BB raises to $0.35, UTG calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.15, CO calls $0.15.

Flop: ($1.42) , , (4 players)
BB bets $1.35, UTG calls $1.35, Hero raises to $6.67

should i stop reading the higher stakes hand histories because i suck?

[pokerfan]

man, your play couldnt be worse preflop. If one of these guys had ace suited, you would be in very bad shape .

[d0zer]

Yeah the PFR in a marginal position with a marginal hand and a limper behind is dodgy.

The call of the min 3-bet is also dodgy as you're setting yourself up to get stacked when the flop comes Kxx and you're against AA/KK/AK as BB is repping. Even if the flop comes Kxx and nobody hits you're not going to make much if any from any worse hands.

Basically you're playing for the flush or some lucky 2pr by calling, which isn't +EV IMO. You only hit a draw 10% of the time, then complete 1/3 of that 10%. Gotta see those draws cheap.

Postflop I don't like the semi-bluff push. I rarely like semi-bluff pushes at these limits because most villains are such stations that you've got no FE, and are playing basically for the flush value. I suspect you've got even less FE in this situation vs the BB who's shown strength both pre & postflop.

So assuming your hand's only value is in the flush draw, I don't think a push is in your best interest. You could save money when you miss by calling the flop as you've been given odds to do so by the UTG call. BB looks like he's probably getting it in no matter what you do, so save some money when the spade doesn't come.

Before I semi-bluff push I always ask myself "do I have any FE?". If the answer is "not likely", then I usually don't bother unless the pot is so big that I'm committed by odds.

[dev]

Yeah, hate it preflop, isolate when you don't have so much possible action behind you, and preferably with a decent heads-up hand.

BB is basically representing an overpair here, and the push SCREAMS flushdraw. On top of that, you said the other guy is pretty loose... if he has a calling reflex your getting called and behind for all your money against a really bad player. This is kinda why we need a better hand to isolate a donk in the first place.

[MuddyWicket]

fwiw they had AAs and Q4o respectively, they both called allin. Thx for the responses.

Yeah, gross overestimation of zero fold equity. Preflop I wanted position with a absolute idiot who was nearly losing loads of money every other pot. I couldn't fold for another 15cents either, to the reraise - its so weak.

On the flop I didn't give any credit to utg and while the BB had 3bet he still could be betting AK or QQ+. Given the size of the pot already it felt like shove or fold, and I don't feel like living in fear of the Ace of spades here (maybe that will change). Seeing as I have the king of spades I can't put BB on AKspades which is in my favour, utg is playing every hand so Axs is tiny part of his range, imo.

I can see why this play would be a lot more favourable with the Ace of Spades instead of a king as it changes BB holdings in my favour and gives me more outs against him, and makes him less likely to call. In fact sticking it in pokerstove the Ace instead of king increases my equity by 3.5% - quite a lot over time. (vrs QQ+,AK & Q4)

In my weak defense I have been trying to rid myself of the fear of felting, I've spotted several hands recently where I should have been shoving or reraising instead of calling and this was maybe an over correction. I've also been trying to raise a lot more preflop because I limp too much and dont raise enuff, especially when i notice i win 50% of hands I raise without a showdown. (21/10).

This hand would have been more interesting if the BB folded and I won on the river with a paired 8 beating his pair of 4's.

[XTR1000]

i believe raising pre isnt marginal but straight -EV.

as played i like flop

[REDBRG]

I turn into a huge donk (as opposed to a marginal one) whenever i start drooling over someone else's money cuz i see them playing like a complete f'in idiot...

Fair to say a massive strategy overhaul mid-session is a bad idea (for a micro-grinder) when you're trying to stack a complete twit? Aka... play your game, wait for a good opportunity, and then stack them?

[martindcx1e]

fold preflop. call flop if you think you can win at least another like $1.30 or so if the turn is a spade.

[microgrinder]

i believe raising pre isnt marginal but straight -EV.

as played i like flop

QFT.

Dont know why everyone else is saying do something else on flop, push looks fine and optimal here.

[dev]

Unless the BB is really really reckless, he calls with his whole range. The limper isn't likely to go anywhere either. We have almost 0 FE here, we beat nothing, and we might not even have the best draw.

[XTR1000]

The biggest part of BB´s range are TP´s and overpairs vs which we have good equity, I´m kinda worried about UTG having 44/55, but he could have 67/JX as well, spades are unlikely. I´ll run it thru pstove when I´m home, I´m pretty sure we´re good often enough.

[MuddyWicket]

There is a lot of money in the pot when it gets to me and the BB's range is easy to work out, the only question is how much weight you put on Ak compared to QQ+.

The hand utg showed up with was pretty much in line with every other hand he showed down after putting loads of money in - its hard to put his range wide enough as he will felt with any piece of the flop. I don't find people this bad that often hence the questionable preflop play.

There is rarely such a thing as zero fold equity even if this is close. Also I'm shoving a lot more hands than a flush draw vrs what is often an overpair, knowing I am ahead.