50NL: nut flush + gutshot draws

[d0zer]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($96.50)
SB ($19.50)
BB ($31.50)
UTG ($10.95)
UTG+1 ($59.65)
MP1 ($60.60)
MP2 ($64.90)
Hero ($51.70)
CO ($83.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4, A.
4 folds, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $2, 3 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 3, 2, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, CO calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.75) J (2 players)
Hero bets $8, CO raises to $20, Hero ...

Villain 20/3 over 60 hands

[pokerfan]

you probably have 12 outs on the turn which means your winning odds is around 1:2.8 compared with your pot odds(1:3.3). I'd call and hope for the best. :P

[dev]

This line is QJ or a set a lot of the time, so I think we stick around for implied odds. We hit that straight and villain stacks off, hit the flush and you might make that extra 26 or so on the river.

The only issue is that if it is a set, and we get the J or 2 of clubs, we're broke.

It's a good bet, I think this one goes either way.

[jimmy44]

You have 12 outs to the nuts on the flop: that's about 48% of equity.
Furthermore, an A might be good also, so possibly more 3 outs.
I think you should stick it in on the turn.
This is a typical set line indeed, but, depending on his aggression factor, you cannot discount hands like KK, QJ, even T9cc or KJcc.

[sweetlemon69]

With stats like 20/6 over 60 hands, can we not assume he would raise premium hands such as KK,QQ? I agree it look likes QJs, but more like a set of 3's or 2's. I'd stick around. Then again, i'm a 10NL donk

[jimmy44]

With stats like 20/6 over 60 hands, can we not assume he would raise premium hands such as KK,QQ? I agree it look likes QJs, but more like a set of 3's or 2's. I'd stick around. Then again, i'm a 10NL donk

A 20/3 villain will most likely simply call your PFR with QQ-AA from almost any position. If he was 20/7 then we maybe could discount QQ+, but sometimes they would call KK+ IP.
However, 60 is not a lot of hands, so you cannot discount QQ-AA from his range.

[martindcx1e]

You have 12 outs to the nuts on the flop: that's about 48% of equity.
Furthermore, an A might be good also, so possibly more 3 outs.
I think you should stick it in on the turn.
This is a typical set line indeed, but, depending on his aggression factor, you cannot discount hands like KK, QJ, even T9cc or KJcc.

Why push the turn if we have no FE?

[spoonitnow]

You have 12 outs to the nuts on the flop: that's about 48% of equity.
Furthermore, an A might be good also, so possibly more 3 outs.
I think you should stick it in on the turn.
This is a typical set line indeed, but, depending on his aggression factor, you cannot discount hands like KK, QJ, even T9cc or KJcc.

Why push the turn if we have no FE?

Exactly.

[jimmy44]

One of the reasons for shoving here is that we are OOP. If villain is aggressive (whether he will have a better hand or not), he will be able to take the pot away from us on the river 1 every 4 times (when we don't hit).

Let's do some math.
What do you think would be the % of the time villain would raise that turn with a bluff? (let's say 10%) With FD? (10%)
Let's suppose if we push he will fold these 20% of the time (if he calls with FD it's even better!)

The pot contains: pot: $39.75
out stack: $38
villain: $58 (however, we can only win $38)

0.2*39.75 + (X*115.75 - (1-X)*38) = 0
(X = out equity if villain calls out push)
7.95 + 115.75X - 38 + 38X = 0
30.05 = 153.75X
X = %19.5

Let's put opp on ranges: JJ+, QJo, 33, 22 (I'm not putting AQ or other crappier hands here and not putting a flush draw in his calling range either)
I don't have pokerstove here, but I believe that our equity is at least around 20% (at least 10 outs: 3 fives and 7 clubs)

Maybe I'm wrong here but I definetively see a reason for a shove. Plus villain will not try to be tricky against us in the future and we'll be able to steal more pots.

[d0zer]

pokerstoving the turn vs set = 23% for the good guys (IIRC, I pokerstoved it last night).

Nobody wants to put KQ in v's range here eh? I guess KQ wouldn't raise the turn here...

What would raise the turn here? set and QJ only I guess which means zero FE, which means a turn call?

[BankItDrew]

What would raise the turn here? set and QJ only I guess which means zero FE, which means a turn call?

Yup. the ol' call flop raise turn line is very strong and means no FE a high % of the time, so raising is out of the question. This same FE is great for drawing hands however.

If you hit your flush, I'd lead out for a 4/5+ pot bet. Straight = push. If you hit your ace, I'd lead for a 1/4 - 2/5 pot sized bet and fold to any raise.

[jimmy44]

Guys,

I reviewed my calcutaions (there were some few errors, basically, I had a too big size of the pot won) and I added 2 other scenarios, where villain folds to our push 10% and 0% of the time:
(So the push was not as good as I thought initially)

pot: $39.75
our stack: $38.2
villain's effective stack: $26.2

(if villain folds 20% to our push)
0.2*39.75 + 0.8*(X*65.95 - (1-X)*38.2) = 0
7.95 + 52.76X - 30.56 + 30.56X = 0
22.61 = 83.32X
X = 27.1%

(if villain folds 10% to our push)
0.1*39.75 + 0.9*(X*65.95 - (1-X)*38.2) = 0
3.97 + 65.95X - 34.38 + 34.38X = 0
30.4= 100.33X
X = 30.3%

(if villain never folds)
X*65.95 - (1-X)*38.2 = 0
65.95X - 38.2 + 38.2X = 0
38.2= 104.15X
X = 36.6%

Conclusion, I would say, if villain has a turn AF of around 4-5 this would be a good push.

What would raise the turn here? set and QJ only I guess which means zero FE, which means a turn call?

Yup. the ol' call flop raise turn line is very strong and means no FE a high % of the time, so raising is out of the question. This same FE is great for drawing hands however.

If you hit your flush, I'd lead out for a 4/5+ pot bet. Straight = push. If you hit your ace, I'd lead for a 1/4 - 2/5 pot sized bet and fold to any raise.

I see what your saying. This is really a typical set line and we have very few FE. What I was wondering what would be the percentage of the time he would fold?
If the push is almost break even, I think it's better to push as we are OPP and you'll always get paid when you hit your flush or straight, while if you call it would not be the case and you might even be pushed of the best hand.
However, with my corrected calculations, this is only OK with a more aggressive opp.
Thanks for making me revise my calcs and correct my mistake

@dozer: what was villain AF on turn (if you had something for 60 hands)?

[martindcx1e]

(if villain folds 20% to our push)

way too high imo

[jimmy44]

(if villain folds 20% to our push)

way too high imo

For the villain is question I agree, however someone with 4-5 turn aggression, it would be good, no?