Question about implied odds.....

[frosst]

Here's the info I used on villian
22/2/3.9 over 2k+ hands
wsd 57.14%
read: even though he was in the BB, his pfrr range is very tight, I'm thinking JJ+, AK, and maybe KQ here (as you see it was AA)
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.10 BB (10 handed) Ultimate-Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($1.80)
BB ($28.53)
UTG ($4.57)
Hero ($34.60)
UTG+2 ($9.64)
MP1 ($2.50)
MP2 ($11.37)
MP3 ($9.06)
CO ($1.85)
Button ($9.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J, K.
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.4, 6 folds, SB calls $0.35, BB raises to $1.6, Hero calls $1.20, SB folds.

Flop: ($3.60) Q, Q, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3.6, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: $10.80

My question is with our stacks being so deep, would it be worth it to see the turn? I'm pretty sure he's putting me on not having a Q (with the amount of time I spent thinking) and with that info would push his AA on the turn, if I just call. With the pot, his bet, and his stack, am I getting the right price to see the turn? Just curious. thanks

[d0zer]

You're going to hit your gutshot on the turn roughly 8% of the time.

So 92% of the time you're wasting your call.

(.92) -3.6
+
(.08)(10.8 + 23.33)
= -3.312 + 2.730
= -EV

These calculations assume that you can even stack your villain every time you hit. He could very well be c-betting with AK and shutdown after the flop. OR he could have AQ/KQ and hit a boat to beat your straight. So there's a lot going against you here.

A few general principles:

1) Don't chase draws on boards where you won't be confident that you're good when you hit (paired boards, or flush boards when you're drawing to a straight).

2) You have to be getting a VERY good price to chase a gutshot profitably. I'll never chase even with only a 1/2 pot sized bet.



Also: Your preflop raise and call are both very loose given your position and -EV vs most villains but especially one who is as tight of a pre flop raiser as this one is.

[rvrking22]

I agree with DOzer. With the villian tight pre-flop I would probably throw the hand pre-flop. Your out of position, and since the villian is tight PF you are more than likely beat at the moment. The only board I see this hand being a favorite is you hitting K J x and even then you may be beat by a set or two or three diamonds fall on the flop, or the flop coming A 10 x, Q 10 x. Other than that this hand is hard to play out of position.

[Robb]

With the villian tight pre-flop I would probably throw the hand pre-flop.

He's raised 2% of hands pre over 2k+? Super-ubernit. This is QQ+ and AK and NOTHING ELSE!! Every hand he can have either dominates hero or plays from 60-40 ahead. And he rr'd pre. So that range is even narrower.

The best kind of hand to stack him with is med pp's and sc's. We are deep, and he's agro enough to put all the chips in with a premium hand that doesn't improve when your draw(s) come in. But don't try to play him oop, and don't try to stack him with a suited broadway that's likely dominated.

[frosst]

I agree with DOzer. With the villian tight pre-flop I would probably throw the hand pre-flop. Your out of position, and since the villian is tight PF you are more than likely beat at the moment. The only board I see this hand being a favorite is you hitting K J x and even then you may be beat by a set or two or three diamonds fall on the flop, or the flop coming A 10 x, Q 10 x. Other than that this hand is hard to play out of position.

That's exactly the reason I called. I DID have position (he was BB, I was UTG+1) and I was hoping for a good draw against his strong holding...plus he had a nice effective stack. btw, this isn't a standard play I do, it's something I did based on what I knew about the player

With the villian tight pre-flop I would probably throw the hand pre-flop.

He's raised 2% of hands pre over 2k+? Super-ubernit. This is QQ+ and AK and NOTHING ELSE!! Every hand he can have either dominates hero or plays from 60-40 ahead. And he rr'd pre. So that range is even narrower.

The best kind of hand to stack him with is med pp's and sc's. We are deep, and he's agro enough to put all the chips in with a premium hand that doesn't improve when your draw(s) come in. But don't try to play him oop, and don't try to stack him with a suited broadway that's likely dominated.

Yea, and the reason I'm raising this kind of hand in early pos was this table had 2 (maybe 3) more guys just like this.....running 17-25/2-3. Give me a table of these guys and I'm loosening up and building pots looking to stack them when they try to "trap" me.

[Robb]

Yea, and the reason I'm raising this kind of hand in early pos was this table had 2 (maybe 3) more guys just like this.....running 17-25/2-3. Give me a table of these guys and I'm loosening up and building pots looking to stack them when they try to "trap" me.

Perfect plan. Now do it with hands that aren't likely to be dominated. Sorry about the oop - my bad.

[BankItDrew]

assuming you have only 4 outs, this is a -EV call. Not only do you have to hit your T, but you also have to stack your opponent with two queens on the flop.

[XTR1000]

u actually have only 3 clean outs, the T will slow him down