hero call?

[meeloche]

Villain's a donk running 40/15/4 over small sample. I have no reads on him other than stats.
My image is aggro for sure and I recently have shown up in a 3 bet pot where I squeezed with 89 suited and I stacked a set with a flush.

I didn't want to c/r the flop and I didn't want to get c/r on the flop hence the check. Turn I'm for sure betting for value. River I don't want to get blown off my hand so I check now this is a shitty spot.

Do I call and is there a better line against this guy?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($95)
SB ($98.90)
Hero ($455.75)
UTG ($14.05)
MP ($150.25)
CO ($101.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J.
3 folds, Button raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, Button calls $8.

Flop: ($22.50) 8, 5, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($22.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, Button calls $15.

River: ($52.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $50 (he has 19 left) , Hero?

[meeloche]

Villain was involved in the squeeze hand earlier where he folded on the flop so he knows about it for sure.

[will641]

seeing as hes a donkey, probably bet fairly large on flop and set up teh pot size shove on turn. it might be a slight over bet but whatever. there is a high likelihood he is calling with almost any pp on the flop and possibly overs. basically you have to decide if you are going to felt this on the flop.

[Galapogos]

Why would you not want to get raised on this flop?

Edit: Why would you 3-bet preflop if you wouldn't want to get raised on this flop?

[dalecooper]

I call, and I don't think it's that heroic. In fact pushing over might be +EV because he probably calls off the rest with TT, 77, and 66, and maybe even with missed overcards. But if you just want to flat that seems fine too. I don't think you can fold it with the read/stats you have on him and the way the action has gone. This looks very much like he either thinks he's good with a so-so hand, or sensed weakness from you (the flop check got that ball rolling) and then floated the turn with intent to buy.

You'll still be beat here sometimes but I think calling is the right decision.

[griffey24]

Your hand is so underrepped right now. It looks like you have AK/AQ/air or something. He can have any pair here and also some kind of backdoor club draw.

I insta insta call this river with the line you took and how weak your hand looks.

I would probably bet this flop though, since no pairs are folding this flop anyhow so lots of worse hands will call. A check is ok sometimes though, to balance the times you check AK/AQ and stuff.

[meeloche]

The reason I took this line was I wanted to maximize the value I got from his bluffs. I felt that if I got c/r on this flop it wouldn't be a bluff from this player which is why I didn't want to see it. River I thought c/c would be better than b/f, the only thing that confused me was his bet size. Does this make sense?

[will641]

meeloche, since you asked in another thread, this is kind of a quintessential hand that you need to learn to play better to be successful at 200nl.

[IowaSkinsFan]

blah i probably call but your going to be shown 76 and a boat/8 a lot.

I def bet the flop though.

[Ash256]

Your hand is so underrepped right now. It looks like you have AK/AQ/air or something. He can have any pair here and also some kind of backdoor club draw.

Which is why he'd check behind riv with pairs? Betting a low PP on this river is fucking retarded.

[dalecooper]

Which is why he'd check behind riv with pairs? Betting a low PP on this river is fucking retarded.

"Villain's a donk running 40/15/4 over small sample."

Dunno how small this sample is, but this is the information we have. If he's really a donk, betting large on that river with a hand he should check down is far from impossible.

[Deanglow]

Your hand is way underrepped so I would snap river.

But I'd also just try and get it in on the flop

[EzDuzIt]

bet flop

[Genitruc]

I don't see much hero in this call

I like the check though to let him bluff

[meeloche]

Is my line really that bad though in this situation? With this board texture my hand strength and villain's hand strength haven't changed all that much from preflop. (with the odd exception of 8x, 76, 55, 22) Against a reg or someone with taggy stats i agree that this isn't the ideal line. However the fact that he's a donk and very likely to decide to bluff later streets with a marginal hand in this spot could dictate a nonstandard line no? I really felt like he wasn't going to stack off light on such a dry flop, but if I gave him a chance he would hang himself.

Ok so after writing the above paragraph I realized that I pretty much have to bet the flop since its so dry that he is probably stacking off with any pair plus maybe even his strong overs (AK, AQ)

So I'm stubborn, convince me one more time? lol

[wufwugy]

we dont check flop because we 3ball for value pre, we cbet most our air, and dont wanna see twelve overs

things change if we're unsure of where we're at pre and flat. as played though this particular villain isn't folding 99 tho so snap pump until arr in

[dalecooper]

we dont check flop because we 3ball for value pre, we cbet most our air, and dont wanna see twelve overs

12 overs seems like a key consideration to me. You can check aces here a lot, check kings sometimes, but jacks? Probably a bad idea.

[lolzzz_321]

fps

[griffey24]

Your hand is so underrepped right now. It looks like you have AK/AQ/air or something. He can have any pair here and also some kind of backdoor club draw.

Which is why he'd check behind riv with pairs? Betting a low PP on this river is fucking retarded.

Villain's a donk running 40/15/4 o

I don't put it past people betting with hands like 66,77,TT,9x in this spot on the river. If they are donks, who's knows what they'll do!

I agree that villain SHOULD check behind all midpairs here though. Still, as played, definitely not a hero call.

[meeloche]

Yeah he had QcTc for a missed flush draw. I tanked before calling and thought I probably screwed it up somewhere after.