50NL: flopped TPGK + NFD

[d0zer]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($22.75)
UTG+1 ($125.65)
MP1 ($17.90)
Hero ($104.55)
CO ($52.50)
Button ($29.90)
SB ($25.90)
BB ($64.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, J.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) A, 9, 2 (2 players)
SB bets $2.5, Hero ... ?

Villain is 20/0/1.5 over 86

What's the best way to extract value from this hand? My first inclination is to raise it up...but then I got thinking -- what cards am I scared of falling on the turn? What cards would scare him off? A third club might sure, but I doubt he'll continue to my raise without the FD or an ace. On the other hand, he doesn't look like a spewtard, so maybe there's no point in trying to let him bluff & I might as well try and get it in on the flop.

hrmmm...?

[speedcake]

I don't see how you can't raise it on the flop. I don't play these stakes yet, but I do have some experience in $25 games.

I just deleted a lengthy post dictating why I'd raise, but now I don't feel like I have any place to say it out loud yet. So I'll wait to see if I'm right instead.

[dev]

These hands are funny because on the turn everything changes.

I think I make it 7 to go here. That leaves him roughly $14 in a $19 pot for the turn if he calls. If he pushes it's an easy call and his range is mostly much weaker hands. If he flats it we can get all of it in on the turn.

The issue I have here is that you could be dominated by a better ace, so I like getting as much as possible in now when you have the most equity against that AQ or AK. If we miss the turn we're 4:1 instead of 2:1 on our flush, so money that goes in there isn't worth as much.

Anyway, my thinking is that since we're not getting away, we're strong but vulnerable. Get it in now.

[d0zer]

These hands are funny because on the turn everything changes.

Yeah good point.

*punches self in balls for considering slowplaying this*

[dev]

These hands are funny because on the turn everything changes.

Yeah good point.

*punches self in balls for considering slowplaying this*

And I thought I was hard on myself...

[spoonitnow]

We're a little over 47% against A Q here (for what it's worth, that's better than AKs does against QQ all-in preflop at 46%). Also for consideration, we're right at 30% against a set.

We should also note that we have 50bb effective stacks here.

I've been sitting here for a few minutes trying to decide whether I like a raise or a call on the flop here. Neither is bad, but I think I like a call here in this particular spot.

Since villain has a short stack, if he's not on a bluff it's more likely we'll be able to get it all in if we complete our flush, so losing a lot of value there isn't really an issue (it would be if we were much deeper).

If we raise then we push out the weak aces, second pairs, and maybe even lower flush draws, and so we lose a lot of value on later streets. This is an issue regardless of the stacks.

Also if we raise, we almost guarantee getting it all-in on the flop against better hands, while if we just call, we give villain a chance to make mistakes with his betting (from the action so far and the description of villain, betting mistakes are likely).

As dozer said, there aren't many cards that we're afraid of here, so we're not losing value by giving a cheap peek at the turn. Also, our hand doesn't lose much value against his range when we see a blank turn.

With all of this having been said, with 80bb+ I raise since I raise this donk bet with a large part of my range, balance, etc.

[pokerfan]

i dont like flop raise here unless villain leads out a tiny bet.

[d0zer]

I've been sitting here for a few minutes trying to decide whether I like a raise or a call on the flop here. Neither is bad, but I think I like a call here in this particular spot.

Glad to hear I'm not the only one struggling with this decision. I agree that vs a fullstack this is an easier flop raise.

I did end up calling, the turn brought a second ace & villain led into me again. I think we've got to call again because either he's got an ace and we're probabaly getting it in eventually anyway, or he's got a FD / TT-KK and we need to give him a chance to a) bluff the river, or b) hit a weaker flush and get it in.

[spoonitnow]

I've been sitting here for a few minutes trying to decide whether I like a raise or a call on the flop here. Neither is bad, but I think I like a call here in this particular spot.

Glad to hear I'm not the only one struggling with this decision. I agree that vs a fullstack this is an easier flop raise.

I did end up calling, the turn brought a second ace & villain led into me again. I think we've got to call again because either he's got an ace and we're probabaly getting it in eventually anyway, or he's got a FD / TT-KK and we need to give him a chance to a) bluff the river, or b) hit a weaker flush and get it in.

Correctly played imo.

[d0zer]

I've been sitting here for a few minutes trying to decide whether I like a raise or a call on the flop here. Neither is bad, but I think I like a call here in this particular spot.

Glad to hear I'm not the only one struggling with this decision. I agree that vs a fullstack this is an easier flop raise.

I did end up calling, the turn brought a second ace & villain led into me again. I think we've got to call again because either he's got an ace and we're probabaly getting it in eventually anyway, or he's got a FD / TT-KK and we need to give him a chance to a) bluff the river, or b) hit a weaker flush and get it in.

Correctly played imo.

Sad thing is...I didn't play it like that. I re-raised the turn and he folded. Then I actually started thinking about all this stuff

I'm not at the point yet where I can think about this stuff in the heat of the moment. Still so many leaks in my game. Since moving to 50NL my winrate has been absolute ass and only partially because of a huge cooler. I've been paying off bitchez waaaay to easily