100NL, KK facing tiny donkbet followed by a 4 bet shove

[pokerfan]

villain is 16/16/0 over 19 hands, unknown. His pathetic tiny donkbet followed by a shove really smelt like " weak means strong and strong means weak " poker tells? Insta call or fold in these 100BB situations?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($126.50)
SB ($99)
BB ($93.50)
UTG ($119.30)
UTG+1 ($111.05)
MP1 ($193.55)
MP2 ($127.60)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($102.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $6.50, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $6, MP1 folds, CO folds.

Flop: ($24) 3, 8, 4 (3 players)
SB bets $2, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $18, SB raises to $92, Hero ??

[martindcx1e]

this is rarely a bluff in my experience

[d0zer]

God that smells like a set, eh?

I dunno about 100NL, but I've seen some villains play TT+ or the NFD like this in similar spots at 50NL.

I probably vomit in my mouth, then pay the man his monies.

[GatorJH]

I probably vomit in my mouth, then pay the man his monies.

+1

[jimmy44]

Tough spot!
We're getting 1.8 to 1 pot odds. Where we need to have 35% of equity.


Let's put opp on ranges:

28,710 games 0.005 secs 5,742,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 4c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.453% 59.45% 00.00% 17069 0.00 { JJ, 88, 44-33, Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 43s, 43o }
Hand 1: 40.547% 40.55% 00.00% 11641 0.00 { KcKs }

==> If we cannot put JJ on his range:

22,770 games 0.005 secs 4,554,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 4c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.881% 72.88% 00.00% 16595 0.00 { 88, 44-33, Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 43s, 43o }
Hand 1: 27.119% 27.12% 00.00% 6175 0.00 { KcKs }


Conclusion: Without reads (or more hands) I think I fold here.

[d0zer]

jimmy: where's TT or QQ in that range? (99/KK/AA even?) Or the many other flush draw hands?

I mean that weak-ass flop lead doesn't exactly scream "thinking player who will 3-bet when he should"

[Ltrain]

This could also be a flush draw with overs or a straight draw combo considering the limping before the raise, and we have the king of clubs. What is our equity against the flush draw/ straight flush combo draw?

[XTR1000]

This could also be a flush draw with overs or a straight draw combo considering the limping before the raise, and we have the king of clubs. What is our equity against the flush draw/ straight flush combo draw?

jimmy included all possible draws in his calcs. I think his range is more weightened towards 88/44/33 tho.

With no reads I´d let this go.

[pokerfan]

holy smoke, good pokerstove analysis , jimmy
In the heat moment, i called and this lucky bastard showed me 44.
i fucking took note on this guy already.

[Robb]

It's only 19 hands we have on him. I'm probably disrespecting his 16/16, paying him off here and crying later.

[Stacks]

Can someone please explain why 99-QQ isn't incorporated into the opponent's range? I know the 3-bet seems like there is a set, but isn't it possible 99-QQ would play it this way as well?

[Robb]

Can someone please explain why 99-QQ isn't incorporated into the opponent's range? I know the 3-bet seems like there is a set, but isn't it possible 99-QQ would play it this way as well?

I'd like to find the villain who plays this way with 99--QQ. If we're up against someone who thinks, a draw is a great time to shove. A shove often gets better hands to fold, and if the draw is big enough it isn't too big a dog to the pot odds since there's some dead money in the pot.

Also, if villain thinks about it, he has to worry about AA and KK - 'cuz we've played it that way so far.

No guarantees villain thinks, so QQ is possible. It's just not very likely.

[pgil]

very unlikely that 99-QQ would make such a small bet on this flop. If they are playing for overpair status, this is a dream flop for them. With the flushdraw and the low flop, I would expect all overpairs to make a big bet at this flop, as KK did. Although, I would probably raise more, and then fold (except that I would know I should fold, but in the heat of it I would probably call).

[Stacks]

I understand what your saying about the 99-QQ being played differently if the villian had it. It's just at my stakes 2NL, I see that happen. I didn't quite factor in the difference for the difference between the 2NL and 100NL game. Thanks for clearing it up.

[spoonitnow]

The raise is correct (could be a little more but this size is probably fine) but fold to the shove.

I raise most of my range here on the flop btw.

[Robb]

I understand what your saying about the 99-QQ being played differently if the villian had it. It's just at my stakes 2NL, I see that happen. I didn't quite factor in the difference for the difference between the 2NL and 100NL game. Thanks for clearing it up.

As long as you're not the one doing it, it's great!!

I wasn't very clear with my post earlier. On a small card flop when we hold something like 88 or 99 (say the flop is 3 4 6), the problem is that we don't beat many pairs and we're barely flipping (and may be behind) against hands like 56s. All pp's except 22, 55 and 77 are already way ahead, and those all have at least gut shot straight draws to help them.

We want to bet to protect our hand, but the situation is very different and much more grim than with, say, QQ. We can cbet half to 2/3's pot, and probably have to let it go to a rr or action on a later street.

Flipping that around, having a villain who bets like that would be very +++EV for us for nearly every holding in our range, here. The game is the same, it's the villains who are different. If your NL2 regs are betting like a house afire with medium pairs on all-low boards, then pwn them.