Unsure with KK

[kmind]

Thoughts on bet sizing etc. Can we ever B/F this flop? This guy is an 8/5/2 over 100 hands.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($96.15)
UTG+1 ($98.00)
CO ($98.50)
BTN ($54.55)
SB ($70.30)
Hero ($233.75)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 6 players) Hero is BB
UTG raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, SB calls $3.5, Hero raises to $20, UTG calls $16, BTN folds, SB folds

Flop: ($48, 2 players)
Hero bets $30, UTG goes all-in $76.15, Hero calls $46.15

Turn: ($200.3, 2 players)

River: ($200.3, 2 players)

[Results Hidden]

[zook]

I think you can c/f vs. this guy. I wouldn't worry about him bluffing you with AK.

[dalecooper]

That's pretty much the flop of gratuitous awfulness, isn't it? That hand hurts my soul.

[zook]

This would be worse

Flop: ($48, 2 players)

[Silly String]

He's not doing this w/ TT or AK. Versus an 8/5 would like to have the discipline to c/f this as well, but it is certainly a fold after the raise. You're not even pot fucked yet given his range.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

lol who plays 8/5?

[griffey24]

clearly the worst:

Flop: ($48, 2 players)

Yah I think c/f is in order here against such a huge nitfest, though I probably end up b/f instead.

[Alexos]

bet/fold seems bad

Board: Jd 9h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.579% 42.03% 02.55% 104862 6354.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 55.421% 52.87% 02.55% 131910 6354.00 { 99+, AQs, KTs, AQo, KTo }

[zook]

{ 99+, AQs, KTs, AQo, KTo }

ummm, an 8/5 who raised utg and called a big 3bet? I'd say JJ+/AK.

[Alexos]

def not always they case, they show up with a lot of weird stuff sometimes... but okay if we include the AK as a bluffraise by him postflop

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

124,740 games 0.001 secs 124,740,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 9h Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.434% 39.71% 02.73% 49530 3402.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 57.566% 54.84% 02.73% 68406 3402.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

we cant really narrow his raising range on this board to set and AA only, for gods sake!!

[zook]

we cant really narrow his raising range on this board to set and AA only, for gods sake!!

disagree

[EzDuzIt]

lol who plays 8/5?

who doesnt?

also how can he have k10 in his range?

[dalecooper]

def not always they case, they show up with a lot of weird stuff sometimes...

A guy with numbers like 8/5 almost NEVER shows up with weird stuff - that's how they get those numbers. That's an ultra-nit, especially in 6max.

[DJJunkPauds]

I say this guy has a set 100% of the time.

[kmind]

I say this guy has a set 100% of the time.

nice

[will641]

thing is, even 100 hands isnt really enough to get a good idea sometimes. like tonight i was running like 8/5 or lower on one table over about 100 hands, and i avg 20/18. even still, i doubt he ever bluffs AK here, and besides that, he pretty much has us dusted.

[kmind]

I say this guy has a set 100% of the time.

nice

This is sarcasm btw. 100% is a high percentage, DUCY?

Anyways, I'll post results in a day or so if there is more discussion.

[DJJunkPauds]

Yeah, 100% is a lot. I was overstating my case a little.

1% of the time he miss clicked. 2% of the time he's frustrated with being a nit, and is doing this with 72o. 3% of the time his buddy was sitting there and saying "Dude, stop being a nit, try this move with <random hand> for once!".

94% of the time he has a set, and I think 94% is about as definite as we need to be to lay it down here.

[kmind]

you read bad

[DJJunkPauds]

Okay, fair enough. I apologize.

[kmind]

Thank you for your thoughts though.

Thank you everyone.

[DJJunkPauds]

Okay, you're welcome. That's fair enough if I'm way off (I take it the guy didn't have a set then?), I just wasn't sure if you were flaming me for a second there.

[kmind]

I word things poorly. No flaming, just trying to make a point that 100% is certainly a high number. You definitely aren't way off at all, just 100% means ALWAYS and his range can certainly include more rare hands.