100NL: AK vs LAGG with history

[d0zer]

This villain had been in a few pots with me before, and he wasn't playing many tables. He was paying attention to me cause he was commenting about a few of my plays in the chat.

One particular hand of note was one where I checked the flop in a raised pot where I was the PFRer, then threw out bluffs on the turn & river. I got him to fold the river and showed the bluff and he made it clear that he was out to get me after that.

I was playing fairly laggy, running about 20/20 over 50 hands, I had showed a few bluffs, and was c-betting almost every pot (with the exception of this one and the previous one mentioned).

I checked this flop because I was trying to rep the same bluff line I had used on him before, usually I'd lead this flop. Anyone like?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) Ultimate-Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($36.70)
CO ($106.75)
Button ($35.20)
SB ($63.20)
BB ($148.85)
Hero ($123.65)
UTG+1 ($86)
UTG+2 ($99)
MP1 ($37.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $5, 7 folds.

Flop: ($12.50) A, 4, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks.

Turn: ($12.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG+2 calls $8.

River: ($28.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $22, UTG+2 raises to $44, Hero ... ?

[Keilah]

I call. If he has a set, fine - the price vs the chance he has it makes it worthwhile.
And does he really call the turn with 76 only to minraise the river when he hits? And does even LAGG vs LAGG call with many hands containing a 3 or a 4 UTG+2? That's a lot of players he's counting on not raising.
I think there's a more than good enough chance you're ahead, plus if you call you show that you don't always bluff and you change things up - and since he's paying attetion, you want him to fear you.

[bikes]

Isn't this what you wanted? You repped a bluff line and you got him to raise?

[d0zer]

The question for me isn't "call or fold river", it's "call or push river".

Against an unknown I'd never consider pushing this river, but maybe this villain is loose and distrusting enough of me to look me up here with worse.

Dunno...I guess it's entirely read-dependent...

[Keilah]

Hmmm, yeah, makes sense. Shoving is most likely +EV here but I'm not sure if it's more or less +EV than just calling.
This might be a good spot to bring in a randomizer and shove 40%, call the rest.

If you do shove and he calls with worse, you're sure to tilt him. Fun stuff.

[daven]

call, i doubt he's calling with worse if you push

[Da GOAT]

i rly dont knwo why you didnt c/b

[kingnat]

ahhhh-linnnn....

[d0zer]

i rly dont knwo why you didnt c/b

Whatchu talkin' about? c-betting the flop or click it back on the river?

My default play vs an unknown is to c-bet the flop.

I didn't here because I thought this villain would interpret it as too strong given that's how I had played strong hands previously. I'd lose the value from his relatively wide range I planned to get on later streets as I believed he'd interpret the turn/river aggression I had planned as bluffs.

[Da GOAT]

u c/b alot so why not c/b when you've a strong hand. playing it any other way is odd.

id his river raise.

[d0zer]

call, i doubt he's calling with worse if you push

This line of thinking is too nitty vs a lagg, and better applied to nits/taggs IMO. You can't assume everyone's a thinking, cautious player like you who'll respect aggression and only go broke with primo hands.

Loose players love to talk themselves into thinking you're bluffing...