100NL: AKs being 4bet Pre

[jimmy44]

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00
9 players
Seat 1: MP1 ($98.50 in chips)
Seat 2: MP2 ($183.20 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero [ AD,KD ] ($120.05 in chips)
Seat 4: CO ($171.10 in chips)
Seat 5: BU ($55.00 in chips)
Seat 6: SB ($84.85 in chips)
Seat 7: BB ($140.50 in chips)
Seat 9: UTG ($86.05 in chips)
Seat 10: UTG+1 ($21.00 in chips)
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO+1 with A K
3 folds, MP2 raises to $4.5, Hero raises to $15, 4 folds, MP2 raises to $34.5, Hero ???

villain was 16/12/3 push? fold?

Let's calculate the EV for a push.
1. The pot is $44.5. Let's say villain 4bets QQ+ and AK = combinations: 6 (QQ) + 3 (KK) + 3 (AA) + 9 (AK) = 21
Note: we have 1 K and 1 A

If he calls with KK+ only, that's 6 combinations. AKs vs KK+ would win around: 22%
So our EV is:
$44.5 * 15/21 (the times he folds to our push) + (($44.5+$105+$105) * 0.22 - $105 * 0.78)* 6/21 =
$31.78 + ($55.99 - $81.9) * 6/21 =
$31.78 - $7.4 =
$24.38

2. If villain only 4bets AK, KK+ and calls KK+ (he calls 6/15 combinations):
$44.5 * 9/15 + ($254.5 * 0.22 - $105 * 0.78) * 6/15 =
$26.7 - $10.36 =
$15.34

So this seems a push? Any comments guys?

[d0zer]

If this was a blind war, then I'd probably get it in here, but since he's doing this from MP, I think I let this go.

...but I think I might let AK go too easily at times and this might be one of them. Not sure.

[BankItDrew]

i find that most villains 4bet with less than every AK, QQ+ @ 200nl. I think you could cut the range of scenario 1 in half, which leads us to a fold.

Definitely read dependent. Math looks good btw, although when I read it I feel like an idiot.

[jimmy44]

but I think I might let AK go too easily at times and this might be one of them. Not sure.

That's what I did in the past and I think it's a leak, that's why I'm trying to improve it.

i find that most villains 4bet with less than every AK, QQ+ @ 200nl. I think you could cut the range of scenario 1 in half, which leads us to a fold.

I for example will 4bet call shove from a guy with PFR more then 10 (maybe 9 also), so I don't think all 4bettors only do it AA/KK at least in Ongame (where I play). Maybe my 4betting range is too wide for 100NL at Ongame ...

Definitely read dependent. Math looks good btw, although when I read it I feel like an idiot.

You don't need to, you're earning a lot of money with poker already!

[d0zer]

You're an ongame 100NL'er, eh? I just joined those ranks.

Watch out for the 18/14 maniac on yer left

[Keilah]

eh 18/14 isn't maniac?

If that's a joke I'm an idiot but w/e.

[jimmy44]

You're an ongame 100NL'er, eh? I just joined those ranks.

Watch out for the 18/14 maniac on yer left

I don't know if you'll see me much as for the moment I'm hesitating in playing 5-max or FR ... and hopefully I'll soon be moving up to 200NL ...
I would prefer 5-max, but I'm not good enough (for the moment).

[mcatdog]

Villain is never 4-betting QQ/AK and folding them to a shove.

[spoonitnow]

eh 18/14 isn't maniac?

If that's a joke I'm an idiot but w/e.

On the right tables I'll often run 18/16.

[jimmy44]

Villain is never 4-betting QQ/AK and folding them to a shove.

Then our EV is even higher if he 4bets and calls QQ/AK!
However, bad villains will