200NL: rivered 2nd nut hand - villain pushes

[jimmy44]

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
10 players
Seat 1: SB ($246.65 in chips)
Seat 2: BB ($61.50 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG ($147.25 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG+1 ($235.00 in chips)
Seat 5: MP1 ($249.75 in chips)
Seat 6: MP2 ($206.85 in chips)
Seat 7: MP3 ($121.30 in chips)
Seat 8: CO+1 ($198.00 in chips)
Seat 9: Hero [ 7C,8C ] ($268.40 in chips)
Seat 10: BU($199.75 in chips)
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 7 8
UTG raises to $5, 5 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 9 K 8 ($13, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 6 ($13, 2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero calls.

River: T ($23, 2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero raises to $30, UTG raises to $110, Hero ???

villain was unknown, only played 10 hands.
We have the 2nuts on this board, therefore, we have to raise.
villain insta pushed. What hands could villain have at this point? QJ/KK/TT how do you play this?

[jimmy44]

bump.
Any comments?

[Muzzard]

Pretty sure he isn't raising QJ UTG, 77 is a possibility or a set. I think you have to call that river.

[XTR1000]

shove over.

[mcatdog]

don't shove over whatever you do

[mcatdog]

I think you can fold here, even though if you do fold 77/78 here it's a good bluff by him because he can have the nuts and you never do, but the number of times I've seen people 3-bet bluff the river is very very small.

Also why are you pretty sure that an unknown wouldn't raise QJs UTG?

[XTR1000]

We hold 2nd nuts, he has KK/88/99 that missed their cr on flop or a TT that caught up.

Even if he is raising QJ UTG, he must be really stupid to go for a delayed cbet on this turn. We are not folding and he has like 25 left. Shove over.

[Deanglow]

This looks a lot more like a badly played KK than QJs. If it was a late position raiser I might fold.

[Fnord]

Call

Also, please bet this flop.

[jimmy44]

Call

Also, please bet this flop.

The thing, is that we have some showdown value, should we risk being check-raised with air?

[nutsinho]

callllllllllllllllll

[jimmy44]

Just to let you know, I called and villain showed QJdd.

[BankItDrew]

I don't remember the last time villain in this situation made it $110 without a straight. Most players are not idiots, even though we pretend they are.

[Aces]

Any 7 is 3rd nuts(QJ, J7) but either way just call the river.

[nutsinho]

we call the 3bet because we expect villain to always cbet a hand with good equity but not strong enough to c/c on the flop, after this preflop action. Such a hand would be QJ on this flop. We shouldnt feel bad about getting owned here because villains flop play is indefensibly bad, not merely a standardish passive play whereby we should still put QJ in his range a bunch.

[wufwugy]

i hate folding but i really hate calling. i hate folding because QJ is the one hand he could have that beats and he raised UTG. he doesn't have it often, but i does have it if he's unknown. i really hate calling because KK calls river raise as well as river raise is for thin value and i may just minraise. if he shoves over we simply just cannot call

[wufwugy]

we call the 3bet because we expect villain to always cbet a hand with good equity but not strong enough to c/c on the flop, after this preflop action. Such a hand would be QJ on this flop. We shouldnt feel bad about getting owned here because villains flop play is indefensibly bad, not merely a standardish passive play whereby we should still put QJ in his range a bunch.

its small stakes full ring