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Disclaimer: I play microstakes, so shoot me down, but...
If he does have 22-88, and puts you on a QQ+/AK, he needs 41% equity but has 35%, so he folds. If he has QQ/AK he is getting damn near exactly the right price, so I guess he folds to avoid variance/rake. If he has KK+ he obviously calls.
However, if he has 22-88, or QQ/AK, and thinks there's even a small chance that you're trying to buy out of a squeeze he's getting a pretty good price to call.
So in order for him to fold your read that he has 22-88 has to be dead on, *and* he has to put you exactly on AK/QQ+. This seems like a stretch to me. I guess if you think he might try it on with 22-88 he might try it on with some suited connectors, but does that happen often enough to balance out the above? And would he have called with suited connectors OOP?
Am I wrong about this? If so, why please?
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