$100nl - TPTK + NFD + 3-bet pot + donk bet

[spoonitnow]

Villain is a fairly decent tagg.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($42.80)
UTG ($123.20)
UTG+1 ($76.70)
MP1 ($81.10)
Hero ($104.05)
MP3 ($50.55)
CO ($116.50)
Button ($94.50)
SB ($27.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, MP1 calls $3, Hero raises to $13, 5 folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $10.

Flop: ($30.50) T, K, 6 (2 players)
MP1 bets $7, Hero raises to $20, MP1 raises to $33, Hero calls $13.

After the donk bet, I'm thinking villain's range is mostly {TT, 66, 2 spades, QJ, KQ}, and so I make a sort of weird [small] looking raise so that shoving the turn is pretty natural, and then he 3-bets and I'm like wat. I'm obviously getting it in on any turn, and in the moment I thought that just calling the flop 3-bet and getting it in on the turn was best, but now I'm sort of second-guessing myself. The reasoning was that I'm getting it in against the hands I'm behind anyway, and I don't want to blow draws and KQ off of the hand when they could easily feel pot-struck on any turn. Thoughts?

[Deanglow]

C'mon spoon this is such an easy hand. He has $80 (retard 99% of the time) and donks small a drawy flop. You have the nuts so just get it in. The pot is too big to do anything else. I only flat this 200bb deep or more

[wufwugy]

its fine, but so is pushing flop. its not like flatting is a big deal or anything, but i guess just shove flop cuz he shouldnt be folding any of his range. only problem is that yeesh if he doens't fold Q high from time to time.

[spoonitnow]

C'mon spoon this is such an easy hand. He has $80 (retard 99% of the time) and donks small a drawy flop. You have the nuts so just get it in. The pot is too big to do anything else. I only flat this 200bb deep or more

its fine, but so is pushing flop. its not like flatting is a big deal or anything, but i guess just shove flop cuz he shouldnt be folding any of his range. only problem is that yeesh if he doens't fold Q high from time to time.

I know this is an easy hand, but I just think that getting it in on the turn is slightly better than getting it in on the flop since I think he will stay in the hand more often with KQ/QJ/two spades more often, resulting in a slightly higher EV.

It's not that big of a deal really, lately I've just been looking at some ways to possibly squeeze more value out of spots that seem automatic to me, and this hand was the prime example of that for today.

My main concern would be if there is any real reason that getting it in on the turn as opposed to the flop would have a lower EV.

[Deanglow]

From my experience people likes their draws better on the than if they missed the turn.

[wufwugy]

i think its so close that it doesn't matter since we cant know which is better. i only like calling flop if i think he has a lot of bluffs, which i dont think he does. the turn psr is weird if we flat. if we stick it in we look stronger than if we stick it in on flop.

[spoonitnow]

From my experience people likes their draws better on the than if they missed the turn.

I've never really thought about it, but now that you mention it, I'm pretty sure that it's the same in my experience as well.

i think its so close that it doesn't matter since we cant know which is better. i only like calling flop if i think he has a lot of bluffs, which i dont think he does. the turn psr is weird if we flat. if we stick it in we look stronger than if we stick it in on flop.

It's not really *that* close that analysis is going to be useless. I hear a lot of people use that excuse when there are two close-ish options instead of investigating.

[wufwugy]

when i said that im not referring to the theoretical optimal, but to the opponents' range and tendencies. there's a wide enough unknown of those that i dont think the situational optimal can really be known since i think the lines are close enough.

what it boils down to is the more likely he is to be bluffing the more we should flat so as to extend rope, and the more likely it is he's got a hand the more we should shove since pretty much all flopped hands look stronger on flops than turns.