Easy Shove?

[Irisheyes]

Villain is 20/13/2. Haven't played many hands with him, new site. He's on a few tables.

$2/$5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($500.00)
UTG+1 ($737.00)
CO ($695.15)
BTN ($472.00)
Hero ($1752.90)
BB ($804.40)
[CO posted $5]

Pre-flop: ($12, 6 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, CO checks, 1 fold, Hero raises to $25, BB calls $20, CO calls $20

Flop: ($75, 3 players)
Hero bets $60, BB calls $60, 1 fold

Turn: ($195, 2 players)
Hero bets $170, BB calls $170

River: ($535, 2 players)
Have about PSB left

[Deanglow]

I want to shove but I'm not really sure what he could have that would call. I'm pretty tempted to checkraise

[will641]

I want to shove but I'm not really sure what he could have that would call. I'm pretty tempted to checkraise

what do you think hes firing here? he appears to be fairly passive.

[Alexos]

Irish which site is this?

I'm also tempted to check here, but thinking about it he could have midpair to high pair with a diamond or something so id bet like 300.

[Da GOAT]

i like around 315. obv b/c

[Fnord]

What's he calling with?
A mediumish pair with a diamond is about the only non-draw non-luckbox hand I can put him on and I don't think he calls a push unless it's Jacks with a diamond.

I'd check to induce here.

[griffey24]

Given that we have 3 of the kings, I think its a lot easier to assume that he has some kind of strong draw/weak hand here, more likely than a hand he's happy about.

I also c/c here the majority of the time, to induce bluffs.

[nutsinho]

wow id rather c/f than c/c. Almost everything in his range has got some kind of showdown value so hes seldom going to bluff when you check. I think bet fold for like 2/5 pot could be good.

[Fnord]

wow id rather c/f than c/c.

So sick.

[BigPapi]

I think c/c > b/f > c/f

I can see merits for all these lines and think it's pretty close, but folding trips is damn hard and that's why you're playing a couple limits higher I'd rather have his af a bit higher for the c/c but I still think I make the call.

edit: also any timing tells might come in handy here.

[griffey24]

wow id rather c/f than c/c. Almost everything in his range has got some kind of showdown value so hes seldom going to bluff when you check. I think bet fold for like 2/5 pot could be good.

Are there really better hands than ours that get to the river without raising an earlier street?

He'd have to be very passive for me to c/f here, and I'd have to have a solid read that he's THAT passive.

I also prefer c/c > b/f > c/f

I think betting small and c/c are very close.

[Galapogos]

I don't like c/c because I don't think guys like this are ever aggressive enough to bluff the river with a missed draw if they're too weak to bluff on the flop with the semi-draw in the first place. Plus his stats don't make him look like the type.

I was going to say push but Griffey brings up a good point that it's pretty hard for him to have one of the kings. And nutsinho brings up a really good point. Now I kinda want to c/f, but I really doubt I would.

[griffey24]

Ok now that I think about this hand some more, and the type of opponent and preflop and such.

I think a big part of his range could actually be hands like 99-QQ with a diamond in it. I think in that case, I like a half-pot bet here. I think because we have two of the kings, it's unlikely he has a hand that will call a shove other than like KxQd or something.

edit: I would only shove if I had history with villain and he perceived me as bluffy, in which cause a shove would look like Adx a lot and he might call me down light.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

easiest jam ever

love,
sauce

[griffey24]

easiest jam ever

love,
sauce

ofcourse it's an EASY jam!

The question is what's the best line, and based on what villain's range is in this spot.. I don't think jam is the best unless history, and image is a bigger factor. But it doesn't sound like it.

[Irisheyes]

I'm supprised at the number of 'bet 1/2 to 2/3' type replies. I think if I'm betting than shoving is the only option.

[Genitruc]

I'd check to him. Pretty tough for him to have anything calling and he has Ad here quite a bit (something like AdJx).

[nutsinho]

I'm supprised at the number of 'bet 1/2 to 2/3' type replies. I think if I'm betting than shoving is the only option.

his calling hands are mostly mid pairs with a diamond in them. this is why half pot or less is sweet...unless he likes to make big calls.

[nutsinho]

also, if he does have the flush, raising it at any point in this hand is suboptimal given stack sizes, relative positions, and hero's hand reading ability. This sums up why i think b/f small > c/f > c/c.

[Irisheyes]

I'm supprised at the number of 'bet 1/2 to 2/3' type replies. I think if I'm betting than shoving is the only option.

his calling hands are mostly mid pairs with a diamond in them. this is why half pot or less is sweet...unless he likes to make big calls.

I think that I don't get called often by these hands even if I bet small because I look so much like Kx. My best chance of getting a bet called is if he puts me on a missed Ad and shoving represents this better than betting small.

[nutsinho]

this is true, and what i was thinking when i threw in 'unless he likes to make big calls'. perhaps this logic just holds vs most thinking opponents, but I was thinking a smaller bet might work well vs a bunch of the crowd at 2/5, while i agree with sauce that this is 'easy shove' at his stakes.

[Irisheyes]

OK at this point I think $200/fold > c/c = c/f. I bet if I had like 200 hands more with him I could make a much more clear cut decision. Playing readless sucks.

Anyways I checked and he checked back 22.

[Genitruc]

omg fuck me to tears

[nutsinho]

lol

[griffey24]

OK at this point I think $200/fold > c/c = c/f. I bet if I had like 200 hands more with him I could make a much more clear cut decision. Playing readless sucks.

Anyways I checked and he checked back 22.

I think readless is the key factor here.

I completely agree with you, Irish, that IF you had reads and history that a shove would for sure be the best play.

But as played, against an unknown and no history, villain has such a wide range and has no reads on you, so the most likely bet to get called is 1/2-2/3 pot kind of bet I'd imagine.