500nl live, money flys

[thizzSantaCruz]

I observed this hand while playing a 500nl live game and wanted to know what you guys think. Effective stacks are 380, 8 people at the table. UTG is a regular at this game I am assuming. I have only played it twice and he has been there both times. My read on him from the last time we played was that he is a solid aggressive player. He seems to limp a little more than most internet players do, like a lot of live players do.

UTG limps utg and gets called by 5 people. The SB raises to 25 and UTG calls as does another limper. Pot is 115 going to the flop.

The flop comes out
SB checks
UTG bets 40
Limper folds
SB raises to 90 ( This c/r is horrible but I'm not looking for comments on this)
UTG pushes, 265 to call.

After tanking SB open folds 99. If your in that position and somehow make the retarded check/raise that he does are you calling a push here with 99?

[Squeaky_Midget1]

The flop comes out

Since there are 2 on the flop it's good odds he has the other 2 ....the rarest hand in all of Texas hold em= suited quads ...I always fold to these

[thizzSantaCruz]

fixed OP

[pokerfan]

i just bet out and stack off here vs aggressive players most of the time in 2/4 NL or above live games. min c/r with the intention of folding is not that brilliant IMO.

[thizzSantaCruz]

i just bet out and stack off here vs aggressive players most of the time in 2/4 NL or above live games. min c/r with the intention of folding is not that brilliant IMO.

Yea, I'm not SB in this hand, I observed it. The c/r is horrible with 99 on this board. I was discussing the hand with the player next to me and at the time we both thought it was a call. I ran some numbers through pstove when I got back and got a 50.5% favorite for 99 against a range consisting of 75s, 65s, 46s and a bunch of
1 gapper and connected diamonds. 33% equity is needed to call so I think it should be a call. My friend thinks it should be a fold but he only plays tournaments. Not many responses to this question so maybe its not that interesting? I would like to see some more feedback. Anyone think TT should be in his range too? I just realized I did not put 33 and 55 in there, but I don't think it should make a drastic difference.

[AlexMorris]

This seems like an easy fold to me. When you're calling hoping to be even money but expecting to be a 9:1 dog, that isn't good poker.

Here's the scenario that I'm seeing:

Board: 5d 5h 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.341% 33.34% 00.00% 22775 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 66.659% 66.66% 00.00% 45535 0.00 { QQ-TT, 88-66, 33, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, 75s, 65s, 6d4d, 54s, 75o, 65o, 54o }

Keep in mind UTG is more likely to push with the hands that have you beat than the drawing hands (assuming typical casino 500NL retard), but hopefully that will even out with the times he's pushing with 64o and other hands that I didn't bother to put in his range.

[thizzSantaCruz]

This seems like an easy fold to me. When you're calling hoping to be even money but expecting to be a 9:1 dog, that isn't good poker.

Here's the scenario that I'm seeing:

Board: 5d 5h 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.341% 33.34% 00.00% 22775 0.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 66.659% 66.66% 00.00% 45535 0.00 { QQ-TT, 88-66, 33, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, 75s, 65s, 6d4d, 54s, 75o, 65o, 54o }

Keep in mind UTG is more likely to push with the hands that have you beat than the drawing hands (assuming typical casino 500NL retard), but hopefully that will even out with the times he's pushing with 64o and other hands that I didn't bother to put in his range.

This player is not limping JJ or QQ to open and calling with 3 more limpers to act. This is just bad poker from someone I see as being aggressive. I also highly doubt he is pushing with a small vulnerable over pair here. I also think since villain check/raised a dry flop like this he is more likely to push thinking the c/r is out of spite rather than a hand. The c/r screams a very polarized range since you must have a very nut hand on this board not to be scared of another card.

[Fnord]

SB's play is pretty standard for someone who doesn't know how to plan a hand.

[AlexMorris]

This player is not limping JJ or QQ to open and calling with 3 more limpers to act. This is just bad poker from someone I see as being aggressive.

Alright, then lets narrow his range:

Board: 5h 5d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.358% 45.36% 00.00% 199377 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 54.642% 54.64% 00.00% 240183 0.00 { TT, 88-66, 33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, A5s, Ah4h, A3s, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, Th9h, 75s, 64s, 54s, 42s, 75o, 65o, 54o }

Now it's a simple pot odds calculation. Feel free to call. I doubt this is his range, though. He could easily be here:

Board: 5h 5d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.092% 16.09% 00.00% 27720 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 83.908% 83.91% 00.00% 144540 0.00 { TT, 33, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, 75s, 65s, 53s, 65o, 53o }

You have to put him on a very optimistic hand range for this to be a call, and then you're still beat. If you have a read that he has nothing (out of spite, as you said), then go with the read. Otherwise, most ranges I would put him on have you crushed.

People that limp a lot are trying to limp suited connectors / small pairs, hit this flop, and get paid. Of course, raising to 5xBB with 99 vs. 5 limpers in a 500NL live game is insane. Call for set value, or pop to 9xBB and hope for this flop against the idiot that calls with AJ.