200NL: KK vs 20/2 guy

[jimmy44]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
9 players
Seat 1: UTG ( $29.00 USD )
Seat 2: UTG+1 ( $195.00 USD )
Seat 3: MP1 ( $204.00 USD )
Seat 4: MP2 ( $86.04 USD )
Seat 5: MP3 ( $274.15 USD )
Seat 6: Hero ( $203.00 USD )
Seat 7: Button ( $480.16 USD )
Seat 8: SB ( $179.35 USD )
Seat 10: BB ( $203.00 USD )
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with K K
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $10, Button raises to $25, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 7 6 3 ($55, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $35, Hero calls.

Turn: J ($125, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $150, Hero ???

MP3 was very bad (34/2).
Button was (20/2/2 and 0% 3bet over 120 hands). I've seen him call a C-bet IP on low flop (with JJ) and bet 2/3 (and then min 3bet) on turn when he hits his set.
I don't think he 2barrils here with less then KK+. Comments?
Thanks!

[Fnord]

Yeah, let the wookie win.

[daven]

fold

[Deanglow]

Just checkraise the flop allin, you are ahead of his range. On the turn call

[elipsesjeff]

Just checkraise the flop allin, you are ahead of his range. On the turn call

I agree with this. 120 hands is too small sample. I shove flop because his calling range > 2 barreling range.

[Fnord]

Why not just 4-ball it if you're going to stick with the hand?

[jimmy44]

What sample should we look for reliable stats? 400-500?

[Fnord]

What sample should we look for reliable stats? 400-500?

The problem is that you won't get there unless he's a reg and/or you play for a (semi)living.

I think you have enough information here to consider an adjustment. It depends on how the game plays as well.

[mcatdog]

Why not just 4-ball it if you're going to stick with the hand?

Sometimes bad nits make a play just because they're bored, might as well get a c-bet out of him if you're not folding.

[bigred]

I'm either shoving or folding pf. Why let more hands call a shove on flop etc?

[daven]

What sample should we look for reliable stats? 400-500?

The problem is that you won't get there unless he's a reg and/or you play for a (semi)living.

I played 50k hands in my first two weeks at 100nl, mostly to get stats. Also to get used to pot sizes. And also cos of addiction. You don't have to play for a living to get the data...

also, someone who is only raising 2% of flops is very rarely 3-betting AK or QQ...