400nl HU big bluff

[IowaSkinsFan]

Opp is pretty nitty reg who doesnt bluff much at all and plays a pretty standard game. He raises probably 85% of Buttons and doesn't play OOP at all. He knows i'm aggro but i havent been out of line so far nor do I really think it matters too much. He's checked behind the flop a fair amount during this sesh, hasnt shown down.

Q1: Is his range as small as I think it is?
Q2: If so, will he fold that range?

PokerStars Game #18047405885: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2008/06/10 - 15:15:35 (ET)
Table 'Ankaios III' 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: heybude ($436 in chips)
Seat 2: Cookeman ($443.50 in chips)
Cookeman: posts small blind $2
heybude: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to heybude [Qs Jc]
Cookeman: raises $8 to $12
heybude: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [9s 7d Kh]
heybude: checks
Cookeman: checks
*** TURN *** [9s 7d Kh] [5s]
heybude: bets $22
Cookeman: raises $52 to $74
heybude: calls $52
*** RIVER *** [9s 7d Kh 5s] [Js]
heybude: checks
Cookeman: bets $94
heybude: raises $256 to $350 and is all-in

[pocketfours]

Resultaments

Looks like slowplayed top pair or turned two pair if he is a nit and only bluffs standard value lines. I think he folds enough, unless you have shown down some really thin value raises. This hand is pretty tough to read without fully knowing the gameflow.

Interesting turn b/c. Did the river change your plan, were you planning to bet or c/r river if you miss?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Resultaments

Looks like slowplayed top pair or turned two pair if he is a nit and only bluffs standard value lines. I think he folds enough, unless you have shown down some really thin value raises. This hand is pretty tough to read without fully knowing the gameflow.

Interesting turn b/c. Did the river change your plan, were you planning to bet or c/r river if you miss?

Opps! Haven't posted a hand in awhile. My plan on the turn originally was to go bet turn bet river since i had a gut shot. But when he raises I exclusively put him on 95 and 75, with the occoasional K5. I figured I could bluff pretty much any spade or Q/J, sometimes 8. I haven't shown down any thin v raises.

[pocketfours]

I figured I could bluff pretty much any spade or Q/J, sometimes 8. I haven't shown down any thin v raises.

I like the river shove once he bets $94, but I'm not sure if I like the plan, for a couple of reasons:

1. You can't make a big c/r if he bets big on the river. You have $350 left and the pot is $172. Here his small bet made this move possible.
2. You obviously can't lead the river as a bluff if you put him on two pair.
3. His turn raise is fairly large, wich gives you worse odds.
4. Does he always value bet 95/75 on a scary river?
5. The value of your gutshot is only about 4/44*($155+$172) = $30, if we assume that you would lead $155 on the river when you hit and pretty much always get called by his two pair (I think a c/r would show about the same profit or slightly less).

We could do some math too since this hand is interesting:

Let's assume he will: b/f scarecards 50%, b/c scarecards 25%, check behind scarecards 25%. Let's also assume that if he decides to bet, he will make it $100.

So we get: EV = EV(b/f) - EV(b/c) - EV(check) - EV(no scarecard or gutshot) + EV(gutshot) = 20/44 * ($272) * 50% - 20/44 * ($402) * 25% - 20/44* $52 * 25% - 20/44* $52 + 4/44*($327) = $62 - $45 - $6 - $23+ $30 = $18

If I did the math correctly and my assumptions are close, then this seems to be -EV since you are paying $52 for an EV of $18. This is mostly caused by the risk of a b/c combined with the risk of no scarecard coming.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Why didn't you shove river... seems like a bad place to c/shove since the stacks aren't deep enough.