Ship it in with AKo?

[Fnord]

Simple enough question. Sorry that we probably discuss this to death, but I find these spots somewhat interesting given the amount of money behind.

UTG is Fnord who's running like 27/21
UTG+1 is one of the better 2+2er regs 22/20
CO is kinda fishy
SB is really terrible
You're on the tigheter side.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Fnord ($199.00)
UTG+1 ($200.00)
CO ($279.10)
Hero ($244.95)
SB ($192.60)
BB ($102.95)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN :Ah:
Fnord raises to $6, UTG+1 calls $6, CO calls $6, Hero raises to $24, SB calls $23, 1 fold, Fnord raises to $92, UTG+1 folds, CO folds,Hero??

[bjsaust]

Is it terrible if I just call first up?

Umm, as played...I think the correct answer is that it looks like we're squeezing and therefore Fnord could be 4-betting us light to get us off the bottom half of our range, so we should ship it in.

In the heat of the game I probably fold because Fnord is now effectively 4-bet squeezing with two players still to act behind him, so it looks VERY strong.

[Irisheyes]

ship

[Fnord]

Is it terrible if I just call first up?

Yes.

[freechus9]

Is it terrible if I just call first up?

Yes.

AKo, yes. AKs, not necessarily, since it plays UBER tits post flop.

But as far as Fnord's hand, wtf is he opening UTG, then 4betting OOP(!!!!) against a huge 3bet multiway with bitches still left to act? I think our hand is definately AQ/AK/TT+, so Fnord has to be 4betting with the intention of folding a lot of these hands. However, that's ultra hard given he's OOP, and I think Fnord knows that we have a solid hand, so hes 4betting for value here most of the time (and almost never as a bluff w/o sick history or ultra deep stacks)

[vegascoop]

Pretty tough spot. My first thought would be to fold but...

Fnord knows UTG+1 is going away and probably hoping the other fish comes along. Given the bad player equity, Fnord can make this play with a light enough range that I should probably ship.

I'm not sure what part of tighter players 3bet range he'd be folding. How much FE does Fnord think he has here?

[Jager]

1. Fnords 4bet size pot commits him.
2. SB in these spots usually has PP or AT+.
3. There is only an effective $14 of dead money.
4. Fnords range may be wide here, but I think 99+/AK.

This gives the conclusion that IF Fnord and SB have PPs then we should get it in, but IF either Fnord or SB are holding an A or K, then this is a fold. Now considering that UTG+1 folded what is most likely a small PP, this increases the propability that Fnord or SB are holding at least an A(how many PP can be dealt per hand). Therefore I think this is a fold, because there is not enough dead $$, and it is very unlikely that SB is folding.

[Fnord]

ZOMG IT'S JAGER!

[Jager]

I took about 3 months off, no poker. We have been playing together a bit.

[badgers]

isnt this like a ridic easy ship if the SB is terrible?

[Fnord]

We have been playing together a bit.

I leveled myself out of $80 against you fucker.

[Fnord]

isnt this like a ridic easy ship if the SB is terrible?

Your thinking is backwards. I know that he's terrible too, so my 4-bet must be for value.

[Irisheyes]

isnt this like a ridic easy ship if the SB is terrible?

Your thinking is backwards. I know that he's terrible too, so my 4-bet must be for value.

I must be bad because I've never reached that level in a spot like this.

[Fnord]

isnt this like a ridic easy ship if the SB is terrible?

Your thinking is backwards. I know that he's terrible too, so my 4-bet must be for value.

I must be bad because I've never reached that level in a spot like this.

YA RLY? Pretty standard poker thinking that when the live one enters the pot good players will adjust their range towards the value end. So much so, that they almost can't be bluffing because the union of the chance the other guy has a hand and the live one will call anything kills the value. Between the tightish guy 3-betting me and the sucker cold-calling I can't think I have much bluff equity. Particularly, since you guys can't seem to miss a spot to get AK all-in pre-flop.

[Irisheyes]

Well I mean I've definitely had spots where I've adjusted because there's a sucker in the pot just not preflop with AK.

You're making a very convincing argument for folding tbh.

[nutsinho]

AK go all in

[noble007]

Looks like an easy fold to me.
As you said utg (Fnord) will really adjust his range to the value end in this spot so its almost certainly QQ+/AK & SB will usually have 66+/AQ+ (with TT-AA being the most heavily weighted in the range and AK the least not only because you have A&K but because they like to get it all in pre with AK usually, ie. he would 4bet)

- sb could be wider obv depending how terrible he is (like if hes a 50vpip+)

[Numbr2intheWorld]

If hero's range isn't wide enough to felt here he's doing something wrong.

[nutsinho]

so we have to put in 175 to win 262 it looks like...not going to check the math but this seems like a call vs qq+ AK, and im pretty sure fnord can also have JJ. maybe im wrong. I would certainly not fold here.

[noble007]

"If hero's range isn't wide enough to felt here he's doing something wrong."

I think that hero's range for squeezing in pos is wide enough for him to be almost always felt with AK. (But in this specific hand the presence of a weak player who cold called a 3bet changes the dynamics alot, the fact that sb may call a shove with 88+ or AQ+ or may be trapping with AA/KK then parlayed with the fact that hero may have a real hand means that utg's range is as previously stated usually very strong in this spot.)

This for me makes felting with Ak not only very marginal vs a QQ+,AK+ range. (You have 40% equity with dead money and break even is at 38%) but thats assuming sb folds if he may be willing to felt with 88+,AK then felting here is hugely incorrect you only have 20% equity in the pot & you need 28%)

equity win tie
Hand 0: 40.056% 32.59% 07.47% QQ+, AKs, AKo
Hand 1: 20.673% 12.14% 08.54% AKo
Hand 2: 39.271% 36.29% 02.98% 88+,AKs,AKo

even if you include JJ in utg's range and AQ in sb's felting range

equity win tie
Hand 0: 42.164% 35.35% 06.81% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 24.224% 16.13% 08.10% { AKo }
Hand 2: 33.613% 30.74% 02.87% { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[nutsinho]

uhh sb folds like 80-85% of the time

[noble007]

If sb only calls 20% of the time & you only have +-22% equity in a pot where you need 28% just to break-even it is more than enough to make felting very -ev even if a call is only marginally +ev vs utg's range the 80% of times sb folds.

(Obviously thats using the ranges I described above which may be way too tight.)

[Fnord]

For what its' worth, he shipped it, fish folded and I snap called my Cowboys.

[bigspenda73]

I gave you a range of JJ+,AK here Fnord and getting it in is def. +EV.

If your range is QQ+ it's slightly -EV unless you happen to somehow be 4bet-bluff/folding 1 in 8 times.

[Galapogos]

Any reason for the obviously committing 4-bet instead of a shove here?

[Fnord]

Any reason for the obviously committing 4-bet instead of a shove here?

Worse hands like to shove more than they like to call.