100nl aces value?

[daven]

This from a while ago - i'm reviewing the villain and just noticed this. villain is 14-12 and pretty solid, he'll know i c-bet too much though and will call the flop bet with his entire pf cold-call range.
Turn bet-sizing was horrible, range is still looking like all pairs 22-jj...
River play?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($173.85)
CO ($24.50)
Button ($44.65)
SB ($33.00)
BB ($60.30)
Hero (UTG) ($110.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $3.50, MP calls $3.50, 4 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 6 10 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.00, MP calls $6.00

Turn: ($20.50) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.00, MP calls $7.00

River: ($34.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $14.00, MP raises to $40.00, now what?

[Miffed22001]

i dont lead the turn.
Probably c/c turn block river, or even c/c with a nice read.

[badgers]

miffed I think if we check the turn there's more value left in the hand than a block on the river - he's still going to be looking us up with 88,99,jj and qq a lot.

Daven do you really think he's going to continue with underpairs on that flop? Even if you do cbet too much your range is very strong here. If you think he is really continuing with that wide a range it is probs best to c/c turn.

I think river is a fold since he's never value raising worse and all of his range has showdown value.

[daven]

Daven do you really think he's going to continue with underpairs on that flop? Even if you do cbet too much your range is very strong here. If you think he is really continuing with that wide a range it is probs best to c/c turn.

I think river is a fold since he's never value raising worse and all of his range has showdown value.

your question - yes, he floats low pairs here cos of how often he's good against AK/AQ etc, he also flats with sets and probably overpairs enough on this rainbow board...

I think you're right about my turn play - take the fnord advice and get sticky with aces! river - what do you think the best line is as played, do aces still have some showdown value here? how would you play AT?

[badgers]

when you say he "floats" them do you mean he calls for value or you think he'll turn them into a bluff on the turn? I think if he is calling with 22 for value it's a fairly horrible play, I would like it a lot more if it was CO vs BU but when you're UTG (effectively MP here though) your range is so much narrower. I don't know how much you're opening here but it's worth fiddling about with your range in pokerstove and see how much equity 22 has against it. It's nt looking too good and then you take into account reverse inplied odds and you hopefully sometimes getting him to fold the best hand when you double barrel scare cards etc.

Also, do you have a specific read that he will do this or do you just assume he will? I think you might be over-estimating how much he cares about your play if you're just assuming he's adjusting to your frequent cbetting.

As played river is fine whether you called or folded - I think it's pretty close. If he's floating a lot and playing back it's much more of a call.

With AT I'd bet $15/$35 or something.

[Miffed22001]

miffed I think if we check the turn there's more value left in the hand than a block on the river - he's still going to be looking us up with 88,99,jj and qq a lot.

Daven do you really think he's going to continue with underpairs on that flop? Even if you do cbet too much your range is very strong here. If you think he is really continuing with that wide a range it is probs best to c/c turn.

I think river is a fold since he's never value raising worse and all of his range has showdown value.

not sure on 88(maybe 99 too) but yes to stronger one pair/overpair hands.
Im defining blockbet as bet $25 fold to shove.

perhaps its a full pot bet to merge AK/AQ into QQ+ vs midpairs who want to make hero calls on this board, but when he raises its definatly a fold. Noone at 100nl knows how to bluff-raise this river.