3-bet AT, flop big

[daven]

villain is probably getting fairly annoyed with me 3-betting and my image is bad. He's kinda tag-fish - I'd say his pfr range here is pairs JJ+/AK/AQ - he's probably calling all this range and check-calling or check-folding my c-bet unimproved. I'm pretty sure he's 4-betting AA pre cos he's seen me 3-bet TT in a similar situation. I put him on AK/AQ after his flop behaviour - best to just get it in, or should I bomb the turn instead?

Thoughts on line? is 3-bet here spew?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($111.60)
UTG ($70.05)
UTG+1 ($47.75)
MP1 ($19.00)
MP2 ($10.50)
MP3 ($48.10)
CO ($57.80)
Hero (Button) ($57.60)
SB ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10 A
UTG raises to $1.75, 5 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.75) 10 A 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4.50, UTG raises to $17.00, Hero raises to $54.10 (All-In),

[Fnord]

Pre-flop is spew.
Flop is gin. 3-bet is a level, my non-level line here is to call his committing raise and get the monies in on the turn.

[poskid_1982]

PF sucks. Why 3 bet this when we are dominated soo often? 45s would be much better and still wouldnt be good IMO.

Shoving is fine given your image on this flop. He stacks off with AQ and AK pretty much every time and may get semi-suspicious if we flat him.

PK

[BankItDrew]

PF sucks. Why 3 bet this when we are dominated soo often? 45s would be much better and still wouldnt be good IMO.

Shoving is fine given your image on this flop. He stacks off with AQ and AK pretty much every time

what he said

[Fnord]

shoving over his c/r is a trick play. In position we should just flat.

[Miffed22001]

do we really think hes doing this with less than TTT?
I could see it being AK i guess as well.

[ATOTHEC101]

do we really think hes doing this with less than TTT?
I could see it being AK i guess as well.

most definitely hes doing this with less considering daven has been 3 betting him repeatedly and hes probably reaching his breaking point. Theres no question he raises this flop with aq/ak and air is also a solid part of his range considering the fact that ace high flops are good flops to bluff at.

[Miffed22001]

do we really think hes doing this with less than TTT?
I could see it being AK i guess as well.

most definitely hes doing this with less considering daven has been 3 betting him repeatedly and hes probably reaching his breaking point. Theres no question he raises this flop with aq/ak and air is also a solid part of his range considering the fact that ace high flops are good flops to bluff at.

certainly not convinced on AQ, AK huh i guess so.

[daven]

i don't think he opens TT from UTG.
Anyway, he called the push with AKo and got abusive in chat... good for my image?

[poskid_1982]

i don't think he opens TT from UTG.
Anyway, he called the push with AKo and got abusive in chat... good for my image?

definately!!!

PK

[elipsesjeff]

AK check/raising this board would be pretty standard.

[bigspenda73]

AK check/raising this board would be pretty standard.

it's also alwful, but yea, FR nits suck

[nutsinho]

uhh did you really reraise 1.75 to 3.50 preflop? what are you doing?

[daven]

uhh did you really reraise 1.75 to 3.50 preflop? what are you doing?

playing far less than optimally - I have a habit of clicking bet pot and letting the slider go one or two clicks back when I'm three betting. I've been playing 100nl the last 100k hands and dropped from bet pot by the same dollar value as I would normally when 3-betting at 100nl - rather than thinking in big blinds. Nice spotting, thanks.

[spoonitnow]

Fold pre-flop.

I prefer to call the flop. This gives you two more streets to get value as opposed to blowing out KK-JJ some part of the time right now.

PF sucks. Why 3 bet this when we are dominated soo often? 45s would be much better and still wouldnt be good IMO.

what he said

First off, I think 3-bet bluffing here is pretty bad since OP is assuming Villain is continuing with a majority of his likely UTG range.

With that being said, and even with the understanding that 3-betting both ATo and 54s here are likely -EV, I don't think the comparison of 3-bet bluffing 54s vs ATo here is so clear-cut because of the fold equity we gain pre-flop with the blocker, and since this is a convenient thread to discuss such an issue, I'll briefly describe why.

If we assume like OP said that Villain is continuing with JJ+, AQ+ preflop, then if we hold ATo that's 45 combinations Villain will continue with, but if we hold 54s it's 56. Since Villain is a bit of a tagg, let's put his UTG open range as being about 66+, AQ+, which is 75 combinations when we hold ATo and 86 combinations when we hold 54s. Then when we hold ATo, Villain folds 40% of the time, and when we hold 54s Villain only folds 35% of the time.

The question becomes the following: Is the post-flop equity we gain with 54s over ATo more than the pre-flop fold equity we gain with ATo?

There are ways to try to estimate this, but I don't want to get out on too far of a tangent. However, let's look at what happens if we never get equity post-flop to see how big of a post-flop advantage 54s would have to hold over ATo to make it the better hand to 3-bet bluff with:

With ATo: 40% of the time we win 5bb, 60% of the time we lose 11bb, total fold equity value of -4.6bb. With 54s: 35% of the time we win 5bb, 65% of the time we lose 11bb, total fold equity value of -5.4bb. This is a difference of 0.8 big blinds, which is the difference which would have to be made up by 54s over ATo with post-flop play.

Against Villain's calling range, hot/cold ATo is 26.0% and 54s is 32.7%, so it's definitely possible, but there are more variables here that are too hard to quantify, like if Villain will stack off with JJ on Axx, for example.

Anyway, the point of this was to show some of the math involving the blockers.