Happy Fun Squeeze Time

[spoonitnow]

I'm posting this here since it's a hand euph asked about and I post too much of this type of shit on my blog. I haven't double-checked counting up the pot or anything, it's just more an example of some of the calculations.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($97.00)
UTG ($106.00)
UTG+1 ($74.10)
MP1 ($163.60)
Hero (MP2) ($100.00)
CO ($182.00)
Button ($85.00)
SB ($104.00)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J J
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.00, CO calls $4.00, 2 folds, BB raises to $15.00, Hero raises to $45.00, 1 fold, BB raises to $97.00 (All-In), Hero calls $52.00

Let's assume that after we 4-bet that we are always calling a 5-bet shove. Our 4-bet is betting $41 to win $23.50. When we win showdown, our 4-bet profits $105.50. When we lose showdown, it profits -$93. Let x be what percent of the time Villain folds to our 4-bet, and let y be our equity when we get all-in. The value of our 4-bet becomes:

Villain folds preflop: x * 23.50
Villain shoves, we win SD: (1-x) * y * 105.5
Villain shoves, we lose SD: (1-x) * (1-y) * -93

23.50x + 105.5y(1-x) - 93(1-x)(1-y)
23.50x + 105.5y - 105.5xy - 93(1 - y - x + xy)
23.50x + 105.5y - 105.5xy - 93 + 93y + 93x - 93xy
116.5x + 198.5y - 198.5xy - 93

I'll designate this as V(x,y), with V as in value in big blinds.

V(x,y) = 116.5x + 198.5y - 198.5xy - 93

Now that we have a general formula (aka we don't have to go through the calculations multiple times) let's look at some sample ranges.

Suppose Villain's 3-bet value range is JJ+, AK, his 3-bet bluff range is A5s-A2s, AJs-ATs, and he never 5-bet bluffs. Then x = 0.375 and y = 0.366, and V(0.375, 0.366) = -3.91bb.

Suppose Villain's 3-bet value range is JJ+, AK, his 3-bet bluff range is AJs-A2s, and he never 5-bet bluffs. Then x = 0.5 and y = 0.366, and V(0.5, 0.366) = 1.58bb.

Suppose Villain's 3-bet value range is QQ+, AK, his 3-bet bluff range is A5s-A2s, T9s-87s, and he only 5-bet bluffs with A5s. Then x = 0.387 and y = 0.394, and V(0.387, 0.394) = 0.031bb.

[fat-b]

??

[Im_new]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

[Stacks]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

This is a squeeze spot, so villians range could be a bit wider than normal. I think we can assume he is often 3bing QQ+,AK or so for value, and most players 3b bluff at times, so given the squeeze chance, he could be bluffing much wider. So I think spoons ranges are fairly accurate. Of course, if he is a maniac this is easy as well, and if he is a fairly solid player this is accurate because most solid players are 3bing light nowadays.

[spoonitnow]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

You need to understand that these are sample calculations and I used the ranges I did to illustrate something specifically to euphoricism, but I provided the post to serve the dual-purpose of showing more examples of how to do similar pre-flop calculations.

We are not assuming that Villain is unknown. In each of the examples, we make an assumption about Villain's ranges, and we show what the result would be if our assumption about Villain's ranges is correct.

There are plenty of villains at the stakes considered that the assumptions made in the examples I gave would be much too tight.

[aka_red]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

regulator war in my opinion.

[Muzzard]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

In another thread you seem to suggest stacking of w/KK is not good at 25nl FR for full stacks preflop. I think spoon has the edge here when it comes to FR knowledge and theory.

[BankItDrew]

Spoonitnow:

Scholar in the HH by day, villain in the commune by night. Keep up the good work.

Same goes for all of the other donkey FTR regs that post non garbage.

[jimmy44]

Spoon: This is pure gold!

[spoonitnow]

Spoon: This is standard!

imo

[jimmy44]

Spoon: This is should be standard!

imo

IMO

[spoonitnow]

Spoon: This is should be standard except people are lazy!

imo

IMO

IMO

[euphoricism]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

In another thread you seem to suggest stacking of w/KK is not good at 25nl FR for full stacks preflop. I think spoon has the edge here when it comes to FR knowledge and theory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

[Im_new]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

In another thread you seem to suggest stacking of w/KK is not good at 25nl FR for full stacks preflop. I think spoon has the edge here when it comes to FR knowledge and theory.

Lets get our facts straight first:

I do not SUGGEST that stacking off with KK is bad! In that other thread I ask a question about KK in NL games. I ask if this is standard at NLHM after reading a hand from another thread suggesting to fold KK in a particular spot; I needed the differences in those hands highlighted. IF you read through that thread you'll see my thought processes and curiosities as a SNG player entering a new realm of poker, NLHM.

Secondly:

ok ok ok, I get it. I readily understand the math and I agree that it is well done considering the deepness of our stacks (in relation to SNGs) and given those ranges. Cool. So please forgive my ignorance; I figure the best way to understand is to challenge what you're being told. (Ask the guys in the sng forum )

[spoonitnow]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

In another thread you seem to suggest stacking of w/KK is not good at 25nl FR for full stacks preflop. I think spoon has the edge here when it comes to FR knowledge and theory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

Agreed, euph.

ok ok ok, I get it. I readily understand the math and I agree that it is well done considering the deepness of our stacks (in relation to SNGs) and given those ranges. Cool. So please forgive my ignorance; I figure the best way to understand is to challenge what you're being told. (Ask the guys in the sng forum )

The only problem I had with your response was that you didn't really engage the subject matter. Instead you made claims without even trying to give evidence or provide a logical argument.

[Im_new]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

In another thread you seem to suggest stacking of w/KK is not good at 25nl FR for full stacks preflop. I think spoon has the edge here when it comes to FR knowledge and theory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

Agreed, euph.

ok ok ok, I get it. I readily understand the math and I agree that it is well done considering the deepness of our stacks (in relation to SNGs) and given those ranges. Cool. So please forgive my ignorance; I figure the best way to understand is to challenge what you're being told. (Ask the guys in the sng forum )

The only problem I had with your response was that you didn't really engage the subject matter. Instead you made claims without even trying to give evidence or provide a logical argument.

Well, do you understand me now after knowing that I'm practically programmed for SNG play where this is not nearly standard?

[spoonitnow]

No, I don't like this.

Unless you're going against a LAGG (over a good sample size), you should not be stacking off with JJ... QQ+, AKo against an average-lagg... KK+ against and average-tight.

The average player is not 3-betting your range; those ranges are far too loose.

In another thread you seem to suggest stacking of w/KK is not good at 25nl FR for full stacks preflop. I think spoon has the edge here when it comes to FR knowledge and theory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

Agreed, euph.

ok ok ok, I get it. I readily understand the math and I agree that it is well done considering the deepness of our stacks (in relation to SNGs) and given those ranges. Cool. So please forgive my ignorance; I figure the best way to understand is to challenge what you're being told. (Ask the guys in the sng forum )

The only problem I had with your response was that you didn't really engage the subject matter. Instead you made claims without even trying to give evidence or provide a logical argument.

Well, do you understand me now after knowing that I'm practically programmed for SNG play where this is not nearly standard?

Yes, but this isn't an SNG. I wouldn't ask someone playing razz why they folded KKK on 3rd street, know what I mean?

[Im_new]

No Shit. And you wouldn't ask if you didn't know why? That's gotta be -EV.

You're a real smartass.... but I like ya. :P

[aka_red]

You're a real smartass.... but I like ya. :P

i wish this were true for you. ANYWAYS...


also fwiw i would not introduce yourself to a new forum by telling people they are wrong. when you have little experience with the topic. that being said i think the realm of FR is waaaaaay different than SNGS and you will find that alot of your knowledge from SNGS isn't going to apply in FR as these situations are more geared towards long term EV vs short term gains. also the risk reward is much different depending on how deep you are etc etc. where as with FR those variables are constants

/wuf post

[Im_new]

You're a real smartass.... but I like ya. :P

i wish this were true for you. ANYWAYS...


also fwiw i would not introduce yourself to a new forum by telling people they are wrong. when you have little experience with the topic. that being said i think the realm of FR is waaaaaay different than SNGS and you will find that alot of your knowledge from SNGS isn't going to apply in FR as these situations are more geared towards long term EV vs short term gains. also the risk reward is much different depending on how deep you are etc etc. where as with FR those variables are constants

/wuf post

Well,ummmm... my comment was supposed to be a joke to lighten the tension around here...damn it...breathe people. AND my comment wasn't geared towards you, bud....

It was a... a cute... yeah, a cute stab though. And thanks for being slightly repetitive... we already established that this is not a SNG...keep up.

Now on to your comment:
"...FR as these situations are more geared towards long term EV vs short term gains."

YIKES!

Treading in deep water, aren't you? Are you suggesting that SNGs are not about long term EV? What do you think of ICM? Is that based on "short term gains" in your opinion?

Please, do define your terms as well.

[Im_new]

Thanks Stacks. These guys are too silly to realize I'm laughing as I type my messages while they're steaming and pissing in their boxers because someone "dumber" than them made a boo boo. I'm_new here, clearly.

On a side note: Instead of making these overly complicated arguments in free forums, focus on a book and make money from your "knowledge." Isn't that supposed +EV?

The SNG forums are sooooo much more helpful when it comes to learning and studying the game, not debating about the game and the theory of.

In short: ...... Calm DOWN GUYS.

[spoonitnow]

The math involved here is not very complicated at all, it just requires a minimal amount of effort before you can really apply this stuff to your game. If anyone doesn't feel like they can benefit from this [or any] type of study, then they should stick to a hobby that more readily accepts mediocrity than poker.

[spoonitnow]

Anyway, I've been working on the relationships between fold equity and showdown equity in certain post-flop jam/fold situations, and I thought I'd add something to the bit of algebra that I threw around above that some people might find of interest.

Intuitively, the following seems to make sense: the better showdown equity we have, the more room we have for error when judging our fold equity. An illustration of this is pretty simple because of a fun fact: if we want to look at all of the combinations of fold equity and showdown equity that produce a get value for the 4-bet (here I use 0 for convenience) then the relationship between fold equity and showdown equity is not linear.

This chart shows what showdown equity we need for each percent fold equity we would have to break even on our 4-bet:

FE (x) | SDE (y)
-------+--------
  0%   |  46.9%
 10%   |  45.5%
 20%   |  43.9%
 30%   |  41.8%
 40%   |  39.0%
 50%   |  35.0%
 60%   |  29.1%
 70%   |  19.2%
*80%   |   0.0%

* Note that values for FE greater than 79.8% aren't relevant since that's the point that our showdown-equity no longer matters for us to be +EV on a 4-bet (even if we always call the 5-bet with no equity). I just rounded it to 80% to make the chart look pretty.

Again, the big thing to notice is that this relationship is not linear, as you can more clearly see here:



The difference between 10% and 20% fold equity only means a needed change of ~1.5% in showdown equity to break even. However, the difference between 50% and 60% fold equity means a needed change of ~6% in showdown equity to break even, which is about four times as much.

[Im_new]

The math involved here is not very complicated at all, it just requires a minimal amount of effort before you can really apply this stuff to your game. If anyone doesn't feel like they can benefit from this [or any] type of study, then they should stick to a hobby that more readily accepts mediocrity than poker.

I benefited from it quite a bit, and I even appreciate it.

Thanks, Spoon.

And poker does readily accept mediocrity. How else would you make any money?

(note: its not an insult... think about it and you'll get the compliment.)