100nl hand against reg

[gametight]

Hand is against xtixmasterx

Hes a little tight, and steals and average percent.
His overbet on the river polarizes his range because I know he pot controls with AA or KK everytime here.

Anyone like a hero call, or are you putting him on the rivered boat?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($22.90)
CO ($105.10)
Button ($25.50)
Hero (SB) ($112.30)
BB ($105.70)
UTG ($103.65)
UTG+1 ($61.55)
MP1 ($112.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 10
4 folds, CO raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($9) 8, 6, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($19) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $13, Hero calls $13

River: ($45) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $83.10 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $45 | Rake: $2.20

[Deanglow]

You are not ahead the percentage of the time needed to make this a correct call

[Fnord]

Flip a coin, then fold anyway.

[cardsman1992]

Did you consider 3popping PF?

[badgers]

Did you consider 3popping PF?

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[wufwugy]

tix is probably one of the best regs. he hit jacks and knows the likelyhood of you calling a normal bet with some pair you'd show up with by now is small, but he can still get full value out of an 8

[nutsinho]

well, he has Jx/air so it doesnt really matter if we have an 8 or A hi. he probably has Jx most of the time.

[cardsman1992]

Did you consider 3popping PF?

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Why not? Against a normal ATS (20% maybe)...here is the range I stove...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,414,348,640 games 0.015 secs 160,956,576,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.348% 60.86% 00.49% 1469299200 11854320.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 38.652% 38.16% 00.49% 921340800 11854320.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KQo, QJo, JTo }

[badgers]

who cares what he's stealing with think about his calling range when we 3bet.

[cardsman1992]

Why are we setmining with TT against a very possible steal, though? Not a lot of flops that you are going to go to war on....so effectively you are fit/fold. Any flop J high or better, or monotone not of your suit, is suicide against this guy, no? I don't mind playing smallball and not seeing a flop against him.

[badgers]

I'm not suggesting we setmine with TT, I'm suggesting that we do not try and blow out all worse hands by 3betting. TT plays very badly against most 3bet calling ranges, especially OOP which is what I was hinting at. I don't consider 3betting TT "smallball" here, we've got a hand that's way ahead of his range, we can just play poker postflop although we are OOP.

Consider the different scenarios if we 3bet

- He 4bets = damn, curse and fold without history
- He calls - as you say we aren't delighted here and a lot of flops aren't good for TT. We've managed to get into a big pot out of position with a mediocre hand, oh dear!
- He folds, HOORAY. But wait did he just fold all worse hands? Is that actually a good thing?

[gametight]

Calling here is not setmining with TT. Tens have to much value here to turn it into a bluff (which three betting against this villain certainly is).

Unless your horrible postflop (oop especially), I think anything but calling here is pretty bad. If he fourbets you have no idea what to do... if he calls and you cbet and get action on virtually any flop, you have no idea what to do.

[pgil]

I know I don't like playing a marginal hand OOP against a good player with a wide range. Make your OOP hands as easy as possible if your opp is capable of owning you with position. not 3betting here because he may play back at you postflop seems bad. make him play back at you, don't be afraid that he may.

you are basically allowing him to have as many free/cheap cards as he wants because you won't be able to aggressively play TT postflop OOP on most flops in this scenario, but you will still be required to put some money in the pot as you have underrepped your hand so much. but if he shoves at any point, you will have to fold if you haven't made a set, and that is a recipe for getting hardcore owned postflop.

BTW, if you aren't 3betting TT here against this opp, what are you 3betting and why? I am genuinely curious how you handle him since you are in the blinds so often when he is stealing them at this table.

[cardsman1992]

I know I don't like playing a marginal hand OOP against a good player with a wide range. Make your OOP hands as easy as possible if your opp is capable of owning you with position. not 3betting here because he may play back at you postflop seems bad. make him play back at you, don't be afraid that he may.

you are basically allowing him to have as many free/cheap cards as he wants because you won't be able to aggressively play TT postflop OOP on most flops in this scenario, but you will still be required to put some money in the pot as you have underrepped your hand so much. but if he shoves at any point, you will have to fold if you haven't made a set, and that is a recipe for getting hardcore owned postflop.

BTW, if you aren't 3betting TT here against this opp, what are you 3betting and why? I am genuinely curious how you handle him since you are in the blinds so often when he is stealing them at this table.

This.

Consider the different scenarios if we 3bet

- He 4bets = damn, curse and fold without history---agreed
- He calls - as you say we aren't delighted here and a lot of flops aren't good for TT. We've managed to get into a big pot out of position with a mediocre hand, oh dear! Depends on how polarized you figure this villain's calling range to be, no? Don't we force him to define his hand more?
- He folds, HOORAY. But wait did he just fold all worse hands? Is that actually a good thing? I don't think he folds all worse hands, he may fold JJ, AJ, AQ, and some other hands we are flipping with, kinda depends on how villain sees us I think. Every PF fold he makes though is making us a bit of margin on our 3bet against his range. Keep in mind that this PF edge (60/40) isn't quite large enough to feel comfortable with playing OOP.....so I prefer to keep the decisions simple.

There is more than one right answer here, my preference is to 3 bet, that's all. Especially if you put great stock in the ATS number.

[kingnat]

BTW, if you aren't 3betting TT here against this opp, what are you 3betting and why?

From a discussion of this hand on IRC, I got railed on my mcat, spoon, et al about 3balling w/ TT here... What are we 3betting with? Lemme see if I learned anything... other than our top hands QQ+, AQs+, AKo+, we can really 3bet a huge range of things, but we don't want to burn the value of our hand... we want him to fold hands that we are behind pre-, and have his calling range consist of hands that we aren't completely dominated against... er something. I'd like to hear an intelligent person answer this, but I wanted to give it a shot.[/url]

[badgers]

I know I don't like playing a marginal hand OOP against a good player with a wide range. Make your OOP hands as easy as possible if your opp is capable of owning you with position. not 3betting here because he may play back at you postflop seems bad. make him play back at you, don't be afraid that he may.

I think 3betting here is absolutely begging to get owned by position, you have enough of an edge against his opening range that you can easily just call and see a flop even oop. If he's maniacal enough that he's 3-barrelling a large majority of the time then I may well want to just get it in preflop, but if our plan is to fold to a 4bet then I would far rather call.

you are basically allowing him to have as many free/cheap cards as he wants because you won't be able to aggressively play TT postflop OOP on most flops in this scenario, but you will still be required to put some money in the pot as you have underrepped your hand so much.

yes we can c/c a couple of streets, it's not really a big issue. Even if an ace comes we can c/c because he range is so wide preflop and he's going to be cbetting a hell of a lot.

but if he shoves at any point, you will have to fold if you haven't made a set, and that is a recipe for getting hardcore owned postflop.

The issue is exactly the same in a 3bet pot except he is going to shove much more frequently because there's less money behind. This is a very well written reason not to threebet, thnx.

BTW, if you aren't 3betting TT here against this opp, what are you 3betting and why? I am genuinely curious how you handle him since you are in the blinds so often when he is stealing them at this table.

AQs+, JJ(sometimes call), QQ+, Axs, SCs. In other words, polarized.

[badgers]

I know I don't like playing a marginal hand OOP against a good player with a wide range. Make your OOP hands as easy as possible if your opp is capable of owning you with position. not 3betting here because he may play back at you postflop seems bad. make him play back at you, don't be afraid that he may.

you are basically allowing him to have as many free/cheap cards as he wants because you won't be able to aggressively play TT postflop OOP on most flops in this scenario, but you will still be required to put some money in the pot as you have underrepped your hand so much. but if he shoves at any point, you will have to fold if you haven't made a set, and that is a recipe for getting hardcore owned postflop.

BTW, if you aren't 3betting TT here against this opp, what are you 3betting and why? I am genuinely curious how you handle him since you are in the blinds so often when he is stealing them at this table.

This.

Consider the different scenarios if we 3bet

- He 4bets = damn, curse and fold without history---agreed
- He calls - as you say we aren't delighted here and a lot of flops aren't good for TT. We've managed to get into a big pot out of position with a mediocre hand, oh dear! Depends on how polarized you figure this villain's calling range to be, no? Don't we force him to define his hand more?Why's his calling range going to be polarized? Why is he bluff calling? What? If he is calling to outplay you postflop with SCs, which without history I doubt he is, you are going to get absolutely owned a lot of the time...
- He folds, HOORAY. But wait did he just fold all worse hands? Is that actually a good thing? I don't think he folds all worse hands, he may fold JJ, AJ, AQ, and some other hands we are flipping with, kinda depends on how villain sees us I think. Every PF fold he makes though is making us a bit of margin on our 3bet against his range. Keep in mind that this PF edge (60/40) isn't quite large enough to feel comfortable with playing OOP.....so I prefer to keep the decisions simple

60/40 is plenty good enough unless you are terrible or he is amazing which isn't the case for gametight here. I feel very comfortable playing TT in this situation, low PPs are much more marginal and are much harder to play in this situation, I have started dumping them a lot here because it's hard to get set value OOP and we hate like 85% of flops. Also there are much better hands to 3bet here than low PPs since they don't play well against his calling range. Seriously if you think about what hands he is calling the 3bet with you are turning a nice profitable situation into one where you have turned TT into some kinda mediocre made hand bluff kind of thing. Not fun, and while your decisions may be simple it's only because you've managed to manipulate his range into hands that have you crushed or hands that have good equity even when they bluff.

There is more than one right answer here, my preference is to 3 bet, that's all. Especially if you put great stock in the ATS number.

sorry do not agree I absolutely love to use ats it's maybe my favourite stat but I think there is only one right answer here the vast majority of the time and that is a call.

[cardsman1992]

Okay, so you call, and check call on most flops, including A high flops. Turn plan?

Question--if 60/40 is enough equity to be okay playing oop with a mediocre hand, then what's your limit? 55/45? You'd only need to take a couple of hands out to get there.....

[pgil]

I think 3betting this pf makes the rest of the hand so much easier, because it makes opps actions so much more pure. If opp is willing to bluff shove over our cbet in a 3bet pot, then good for him. FWIW, I may end up calling the flop shove if it were to happen, which I don't think it does. But if opp is still around, I am open shoving the turn.

If opp is folding all low sc's, all Ax's, and things like QJ/KJ, then we don't come out of this too bad. Against a hand like QJ/KJ, we aren't making a ton postflop while OOP unless opp is 3barrelling missed overs vs us. If opp is folding these hands to a 3bet we are folding out hands that we have a very marginal edge over, and the fact that we are OOP negates our 5% equity advantage pretty well.

If opp holds a sc/Ax's and we just call, we are again not expecting to be making a whole lot when opp has missed completely, and will have a hard time giving a drawing hand bad odds to call, plus there are a lot of weird 2 pair hands that he can have that can potentially get us in a lot of trouble.

The only hand that we really lose a lot of value against if they fold preflop is a smaller pair that opp can decide to try to valuetown us with on safe-ish boards. but that makes up such a small amount of his range, and he may end up calling with them anyway pf.

I just really think that allowing opp to set his own price for 5 cards is a really dangerous and bad idea when we hold TT. op obviously wasn't going to be CRing a low flop, since he got that and c/c. If the plan was to CR on a safe board, then fine, call and let him cbet.

I am somewhat new to the idea that a 3bet range should be polarized here. why is it a good idea to do this? What advantage does it confer over a purely value range, or a balanced range?

I personally would probably play a 3bet or fold game against this guy in this scenario until I saw how he responded.

[badgers]

I think 3betting this pf makes the rest of the hand so much easier, because it makes opps actions so much more pure. If opp is willing to bluff shove over our cbet in a 3bet pot, then good for him. FWIW, I may end up calling the flop shove if it were to happen, which I don't think it does. But if opp is still around, I am open shoving the turn.

you make it sound like every flop or turn is going to be great for us if we 3bet and if we just call overcards will come. What is your plan on a J high flop like the one kingnat posted? c/f, b/f, what? What range do you think this opp is going to call our 3bet with?

If opp is folding all low sc's, all Ax's, and things like QJ/KJ, then we don't come out of this too bad. Against a hand like QJ/KJ, we aren't making a ton postflop while OOP unless opp is 3barrelling missed overs vs us. If opp is folding these hands to a 3bet we are folding out hands that we have a very marginal edge over, and the fact that we are OOP negates our 5% equity advantage pretty well.

No you're right there's usually at best two streets of value against worst hands or we can pick up two bluffs here unless we hit a set. It's not amazingly profitable unless we hit a set but I think it's far superior to 3betting. There are better ways to play against his range and keep a lot of the holdings we beat in the hand at the flop ie. call. Yes this isn't a super profitable situation, but if he's folding so many hands that 3betting is better then there are far better hands for us to 3bet (ie. the only way for a 3bet to be better that calling is if he's folding the vast majority of his opening range in which case we might as well 3bet 46s+,54s+,Axs,Kxs etc. etc as well as TT. do you come across that situation often?

also I don't know where you got 5% equity advantage from. Vs a 25% steal range which I consider nitty we're 62/38, against 30% we have 64% equity.

If opp holds a sc/Ax's and we just call, we are again not expecting to be making a whole lot when opp has missed completely, and will have a hard time giving a drawing hand bad odds to call, plus there are a lot of weird 2 pair hands that he can have that can potentially get us in a lot of trouble.

No, we aren't going to make a lot. It's not a trapping call, we call because we have a decent hand that could make a monster but even without doing so it has a lot of value and plays well against their range.

The only hand that we really lose a lot of value against if they fold preflop is a smaller pair that opp can decide to try to valuetown us with on safe-ish boards. but that makes up such a small amount of his range, and he may end up calling with them anyway pf.

I doubt he's calling with PPs if you 3bet to a decent size her often if he's half decent. If he does it's an exploitable leak and you can 3bet him wide knowing he's going to setmine without odds and set up a really profitable cbet.

I just really think that allowing opp to set his own price for 5 cards is a really dangerous and bad idea when we hold TT. op obviously wasn't going to be CRing a low flop, since he got that and c/c. If the plan was to CR on a safe board, then fine, call and let him cbet.

Not half as dangerous as 3betting... Why would we c/r a safe board, what is your obsession with folding out all the hands we beat?

I am somewhat new to the idea that a 3bet range should be polarized here. why is it a good idea to do this? What advantage does it confer over a purely value range, or a balanced range?

A polarised range is a balanced range, it is balanced between your bluffs and your value bets. The advantages are that we don't have 3bet TT and get into super-gay situations in big pots like the hand kingnat posted, yet our range remains wider than JJ+, AK. It's possible to get an unexploitable 3betting strategy using game theory which is something I've looked into but I think it's better to just play the player and 3bet bluff when you think they're going to fold a large percentage of their range.

I personally would probably play a 3bet or fold game against this guy in this scenario until I saw how he responded.

leak.

[badgers]

Okay, so you call, and check call on most flops, including A high flops. Turn plan?

c/f a lot, it would be a horrible bluff on an A high board, especially considering my calling range preflop would include AJ. It's totally villain and board dependant.

Question--if 60/40 is enough equity to be okay playing oop with a mediocre hand, then what's your limit? 55/45? You'd only need to take a couple of hands out to get there.....

This is pretty much an unanswerable question. Against someone good 60/40 might not even be enough. Against someone ridiculously terrible and readable I can call with a wider range.

[cardsman1992]

My take was that the villain was one of the best regs......so in that case I still lean toward 3bet or fold.

I agree that against Mr Fishy you can see a lot more flops by calling vs 3betting.

[badgers]

Really I meant absolutely sick good instead of good. If he's good enough for me not to want to call he's going to be good enough to absolutely own me if I 3bet TT now that I think about it so that would still make it a call lol.

[gametight]

Why would you want to build a big pot from OOP with a guy who is decent, tight and may float a decent amount of flops. IMO, its much better to three bet junk (suited connecters, small pp's, air) and obv. value three bettting hands. But three betting TT here is not for value!

The argument that you dont want to play OOP so you three bet is horrible. Its much better to play OOP in a small pot, than OOP in a 3bet pot against this guy. Especiall with a decent, disguised hand.

Play small pots OOP and bigger pots in position.

[pgil]

I think 3betting this pf makes the rest of the hand so much easier, because it makes opps actions so much more pure. If opp is willing to bluff shove over our cbet in a 3bet pot, then good for him. FWIW, I may end up calling the flop shove if it were to happen, which I don't think it does. But if opp is still around, I am open shoving the turn.

you make it sound like every flop or turn is going to be great for us if we 3bet and if we just call overcards will come. What is your plan on a J high flop like the one kingnat posted? c/f, b/f, what? What range do you think this opp is going to call our 3bet with?
actually, I think a lot of flops will be bad, and if we get to the river, there will usually be at least 1 bad card for us. The thing about 3betting and then following it with a cbet is we force him to either hit the flop, or decide that we are FOS. even if he hits it, he has to hit it hard enough to continue. I didn't see any reads posted in the hand kingnat put up, so I can't really comment on it.

I expect opp will call the 3bet with some big A's, some med-large PP's, and some random Caro-esque loose wiring hands. I also expect him to fold most of these on the flop. Plus, he folds a lot of hands that are in pretty good shape vs us, like KQ and other paint combos. I was going to write more, but have to go to work now. Will be analyzing this hand in my free time, and will post more later.

If opp is folding all low sc's, all Ax's, and things like QJ/KJ, then we don't come out of this too bad. Against a hand like QJ/KJ, we aren't making a ton postflop while OOP unless opp is 3barrelling missed overs vs us. If opp is folding these hands to a 3bet we are folding out hands that we have a very marginal edge over, and the fact that we are OOP negates our 5% equity advantage pretty well.

No you're right there's usually at best two streets of value against worst hands or we can pick up two bluffs here unless we hit a set. It's not super

Yes but there are better ways to play against his range and keep a lot of the holdings we beat in the hand at the flop. Yes this isn't a super profitable situation, but if he's folding so many hands that 3betting is better then there are far better hands for us to 3bet (ie. the only way for a 3bet to be better that calling is if he's folding the vast majority of his opening range in which case we might as well 3bet 46s+,54s+,Axs,Kxs etc. etc as well as TT. do you come across that situation often?

If opp holds a sc/Ax's and we just call, we are again not expecting to be making a whole lot when opp has missed completely, and will have a hard time giving a drawing hand bad odds to call, plus there are a lot of weird 2 pair hands that he can have that can potentially get us in a lot of trouble.

No, we aren't going to make a lot. It's not a trapping call, we call because we have a decent hand that could make a monster but even without doing so it has a lot of value and plays well against their range.

The only hand that we really lose a lot of value against if they fold preflop is a smaller pair that opp can decide to try to valuetown us with on safe-ish boards. but that makes up such a small amount of his range, and he may end up calling with them anyway pf.

I doubt he's calling with PPs if you 3bet to a decent size her often if he's half decent. If he does it's an exploitable leak and you can 3bet him wide knowing he's going to setmine without odds and set up a really profitable cbet.

I just really think that allowing opp to set his own price for 5 cards is a really dangerous and bad idea when we hold TT. op obviously wasn't going to be CRing a low flop, since he got that and c/c. If the plan was to CR on a safe board, then fine, call and let him cbet.

Not half as dangerous as 3betting... Why would we c/r a safe board, what is your obsession with folding out all the hands we beat?

I am somewhat new to the idea that a 3bet range should be polarized here. why is it a good idea to do this? What advantage does it confer over a purely value range, or a balanced range?

A polarised range is a balanced range, it is balanced between your bluffs and your value bets. The advantages are that we don't have 3bet TT and get into super-gay situations in big pots like the hand kingnat posted, yet our range remains wider than JJ+, AK. It's possible to get an unexploitable 3betting strategy using game theory which is something I've looked into but I think it's better to just play the player and 3bet bluff when you think they're going to fold a large percentage of their range.

I personally would probably play a 3bet or fold game against this guy in this scenario until I saw how he responded.

leak.

[Stacks]

I agree with badgers, and the others that are saying a 3b here is not the best option by far. Badgers did a very good job of explaining how the situation would unfold if we were to 3b in this instance. With a villain that is rather tight, but stealing a fair amount, then we can 3b in this spot rather often until he adjusts, because he is opening such a wide range, but continuing with such a narrow range, so we prove +ev by fold equity alone.

However, the problem here is that by 3betting we do in fact narrow his range, but to a range that we aren't looking so great against. And also we are doing some things that we generally try to avoid, which is building a larger pot oop against a good opponent.

So while I'll agree that 3betting TT here is +ev in most instances (without history etc), I believe it's more +ev to call here. We keep the pot small while oop, and we also keep in all his worse hands.

I would be much more inclined to 3b a hand such as T7s, or A3s than TT here, as TT has good value in just calling while the others hands, not so much.

The way I see it, this is what you need to consider when deciding your play here. 1st are you willing to stack off preflop? If so then you can 3b for value (A Range hands). If you aren't then you need to realize that if you 3b it's as a bluff, because you would really rather him fold than call or 4b. Do we want to turn TT into a bluff in this instance, when it's a top tier hand? I wouldn't.

[kingnat]

I didn't see any reads posted in the hand kingnat put up, so I can't really comment on it.

I expect opp will call the 3bet with some big A's, some med-large PP's, and some random Caro-esque loose wiring hands. I also expect him to fold most of these on the flop. Plus, he folds a lot of hands that are in pretty good shape vs us, like KQ and other paint combos.

Sorry for not including any reads, but this opponent was a reg, that plays 12/8 w/ a 25% att to steal... which i think fits gametight's vill description almost exactly. My vill is HJ vs. CO, which is potentially a significant difference... but everything else is the same, for the sake of discussion we could pretend he's in the CO, and I don't think it changes THAT much. The one notable exception is that his calling range from the HJ to a PF 3b is likely a larger proportion of his raising range in the HJ than from the CO, because his opening range from the CO is much wider, but his calling range in the two positions is likely to be the same.

Actually come to think of it, if this villain has a large disparity between attempt to steal and PFR, it would make sense that their HJ range is significantly different than their attempt to steal range, else their PFR would likely be much higher overall...

Just to compare two POSSIBLE lines for this hand with this board... A PF call, and a flop c/r on this board, would give me an opportunity to win more money from hands that would've folded to a PF 3b, while at the same time losing far less money when I'm beat and vill 3b-shoves over my flop c/r (lets assume that only happens when I'm beat) than the comparative results of my 3b + cbet which is then shoved over.

[gametight]

Kingnat, why would you want to c/r that board with your TT??? It has too much value to turn it into a bluff!

cr that board with weaker parts of your range, and some draws. Hes cbetting his entire range here so just call and play poker IMO.

[kingnat]

Kingnat, why would you want to c/r that board with your TT??? It has too much value to turn it into a bluff!

cr that board with weaker parts of your range, and some draws. Hes cbetting his entire range here so just call and play poker IMO.

Damn you and your insistence on playing this "poker" game.. I'm a scared little child... what if he draws out on me, what if I feel bad, what if the tears don't stop, what if they never ever STOP!!!!!!

[cardsman1992]

Okay, this hand is kinda similar. I respect this player and I think he respects me as well, we tangle from time to time but are just about even against each other. He is TAGGY, about 19/13 with 33% ATS over 1800 hands, which is maybe a touch higher than "normal" but still not out of line. I don't see him make huge postflop mistakes very often. So I decide to play this hand the way this thread suggests. I have to admit I was surprised although the BB coming along changes this just a touch. The river play is not really relevant to this particular discussion.....

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($67.50)
UTG ($211.05)
MP1 ($15)
MP2 ($102.50)
CO ($105.35)
Button ($100)
cardsman (SB) ($160.05)

Preflop: cardsman is SB with J, J
4 folds, Button raises to $2.50, cardsman calls $2, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($7.50) 4, 2, 6 (3 players)
cardsman checks, BB checks, Button checks

Turn: ($7.50) 8 (4 players)
cardsman bets $7, BB calls $7, 1 fold

River: ($21.50) 6 (3 players)
cardsman....

[Keilah]

b/f or c/c seems pretty close, I don't care which.

[pgil]

The 5% equity advantage I was talking about was vs. the overcards that opp may fold to our 3bet. The QJ/KJ/KQ/AJ type of hands that opp may not like once we 3bet, but that have a decent amount of equity vs. us and make our hand very hard to play OOP.

Gametight - If you are only CRing that board with the weaker part of your range plus draws, then can't villain easily shove over every CR you make on low boards and make a profit. usually you won't be able to call with your draw, and you certainly can't call with the weaker part of your range. You have just outlined an easily exploitable strategy. However, if you are occasionally CRing medium and strong hands, then a shove over looks really bad, and you can do it more with the weaker parts of your range.

I realize that technically the most +EV play may be to just call pf and then call 2 streets worth of value on safe boards, but I would imagine it is a small difference at best. And I am more than willing to sacrifice a small amount of EV when I am OOP and more likely to end up on the short end of the EV stick, and attempt to maximize my EV while IP.

Hhhmmm, just looked this particular opp up in my old DB, and though it is a small sample (just under 800 hands, and was a number of months ago), I have him running something like 12/7, with a 21 ATS. But, he does not seem to want to go to showdown with a weak hand, so I would imagine he is pretty tight postflop, and not necessarily likely to be floating in 3bet pots.

I am not really sure how to adjust to that, but might try to build slightly larger pots for me to steal postflop, and having a little value in your hand to fall back on might not be a bad thing. I think the best adjustment to make would be to sit to his right and steal his blinds until he plays back, then steal them some more.

As for cardsman1992's hand, opp is way looser, way more aggressive. though his ATS is lower than I would expect given the rest of his stats. I would imagine he is playing too many hands from earlier position, and not enough from the button, just a side note.

With BB coming along I almost like a donk-bet here. Trap a little more money in before it gets back to the btn. Btn may be less likely to cbet missed crap vs 2 opps anyways. Is this opps regular raise size, or is it his regular button raise size, or is this different?

As played, I wouldn't mind a small bet/call line. Just because we have no idea about BB. Make the small bet to get value from his most likely hand, which is the naked 8. And call a small raise because he is an unknown 2/3 stack who probably sucks. This is one of those spots where against that stack size a pf reraise makes things a lot easier again. Either he folds pf, or we get his stack in by the turn. Although, I guess we can accomplish the same thing by leading all three streets and getting it in by the river.

[cardsman1992]

pgil, original PFR was a bit smaller than normal, 3X was usual.

Proportionally, they are stealing a similar rate of time, ie almost 3x their "normal" PFR....but meh, I was looking for an opportunity to try this out and this was as close as I could get.

If anyone is really interested in the river, I led for $12.50 and he minraised......and I don't think you can tie him to just a naked 8 really, can you?

[pgil]

not just an 8, but I am a bit of an optimist here

I was thinking something like 7 again, then it's easier to call the raise. I still call because I am a payoff wizard. The problem is, he can have soooo many hands here. flush draw that hit, 35/57 for the straight, 6x, 84 that isn't smart enough to realize that the 6 counterfeited his 2 pair, 99/TT that was slowplaying the whole way, 22/44/66/88, a 5 or a 7 for a missed straightdraw that is now trying to bluff, missed overs, etc. against an unknown, it is just a guessing game as to what he has, so I call. FWIW I do expect to be behind quite a bit here.

[cardsman1992]

I folded even though I was getting odds. Action just seemed suspiciously like I was behind more often than a call would justify.

[pokerfan]

i'd lead out on that flop in this spot. On the river, i call his minraise knowing that he might just hit 6 or flush in the end. Seriously, i like to flat call with TT-JJ oop and play postflop poker vs 12/7 types of regulars even if they steal in late position in FR games.

[cardsman1992]

Normally I would lead flop too, but I was trying to play the strategy suggested in this discussion, which was a bit more passive.

[bigspenda73]

3betting is +EV but not as +EV as calling

that's my opinion and I'm stickin to it

[Stacks]

3betting is +EV but not as +EV as calling

that's my opinion and I'm stickin to it

this^^^

[bigspenda73]

btw, if he's good, he knows you can never have 8x or Jx so it's like lol easy for him to overbet bluff shove this river.

I flip a coin, my coin is two-headed, and heads is call