of odds, sets, and flushes - 50nl

[daven]

ok, utg is a funny player who has a tendency to donk-lead weak then fold when I min-raise. Villain behind is a weak nit who is fit or fold. His range is 33/66. Once UTG calls he's basically saying he has top pair and he wants to stack off - so pot and implied odds suggest I have to call - so long as I know how to fold if 6d comes. Turn I know that villain behind is pushing over/calling if i shove - but I got oesd/nfd... standard?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($54.75)
UTG ($25.55)
UTG+1 ($42.60)
MP1 ($25.90)
Hero (MP2) ($56.20)
MP3 ($55.05)
CO ($130.65)
Button ($40.70)
SB ($85.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4, A
UTG raises to $1, UTG+1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($5.25) 3, Q, 6 (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, MP3 raises to $12, 1 fold, UTG calls $10, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($41.25) 5 (3 players)
UTG bets $12.55 (All-In), Hero folds,

[wufwugy]

im not folding because reads are never that accurate and it's sooooooo close

9 flush outs
8 straight outs, but two cards are also flush cards
two diamons pair the board

1 card to come 6 are known so
15/46 = 32.6%

you need to pay $42.05 to see the last card
the pot is $53.80

with your contribution and your opponent's contribution the total pot is $137.90

$42.05/$137.90 = 30.5%

tl;dr
call and hope he doesn't shove over, and call a shove
it's EV+ against a 100% sure set and 100% sure shove

[Miffed22001]

call the raise and hope not to get squeezed hard on flop otherwise raise it up and bomb the turn if UTG calls.

[badgers]

Fold because MP3 is going to push...

Also, I know you have a read but I'd far rather raise properly on the flop.

Fold because MP3 is going to push...

Also, I know you have a read but I'd far rather raise properly on the flop.

did you not read my post?

you have odds to call a push even if he flips over 66 and says I'm pushing

[pgil]

I think your math is off a bit. I get it at about 42 to win 96, and count 13 clean outs vs a 'known' set.

that being said in the heat of the moment I probably just shove over and hope my read is off, or I get lucky.

[daven]

1 card to come 8 (33 or 66) are known so
13/44 = 29.5%

you need to pay $42.05 to see the last card
the pot is $53.80

$42.05/$137.90 = 30.5%

fyp, 13 outs
yep, agree that it's close. In the heat of the moment i thought 13/46 -forgetting to take out the set cards - and that made it an easy fold...

I think your math is off a bit. I get it at about 42 to win 96, and count 13 clean outs vs a 'known' set.

that being said in the heat of the moment I probably just shove over and hope my read is off, or I get lucky.

hurr, I discounted those outs, but used 15 anyway lol
but yeah

I didn't discount the set cards because they're actually not known for sure
against a known set it's of course it's 12/44 or 13/44 because he could have a set with 6 of diamonds (one sixth of the time he'll have it)

but it's so close that it's worth putting in your stack because your ace might be an out once in ten times or something

[badgers]

did you not read my post?

No I did not, I just glanced at it and thought you'd assumed MP3 wasn't involved sorry. Seems like I'm wrong here...

[daven]

[quote="iopq"]

I it's 12/44 or 13/44 because he could have a set with 6 of diamonds (one sixth of the time he'll have it)

but it's so close that it's worth putting in your stack because your ace might be an out once in ten times or something

not quite - 6d is not one of the 13 outs as it pairs the board....
you're right about how close it is

A question - when it's neutral EV then folding is fine, right? thought so...

oh yeah that's why I didn't count it that last time

it's not fine because you don't know his hand
it's enough for him to have AQ here some of the time for this to be a snapshove

so I was wrong here ONLY if he shows you his hand, then you can fold
I'll play AQ this way on this board because I know that people have flush draws and shit and I want them to pay the maximum

[Fnord]

im not folding because reads are never that accurate and it's sooooooo close

[Fnord]

A question - when it's neutral EV then folding is fine, right? thought so...

It's a style thing. I tend to not fold because it makes it more difficult to play against me.

[Fnord]

A question - when it's neutral EV then folding is fine, right? thought so...

It's a style thing. I tend to not fold because it makes it more difficult to play against me.

[Keilah]

IMO, given 10 oEV decisions, play them all for action. You probably have better rakeback/VIP status than your opponent ;]

[Fnord]

LoLz

[wufwugy]

as a rule of thumb, seeing more showdowns with your preordained tight range is typically better. if it's neutral either way then just get it in; you'll find that it's actually not neutral since there are factors that you didnt notice, and seeing showdowns with good hands is simply a more correct play than folding good hands before showdowns.