ensign_lee's 9/21 winning picks (YTD: 16-5-0, +35.87 units)

[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee


Record of bets that SageStats can't track can be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...DlRSHfbA&hl=en

YTD: 16-5-0
Units Won: 35.87

Hey guys,

It's week 3 guys! Hooray! And hooray for me having power to watch the game (live in Houston, and half the city still doesn't from Ike).

One change from this week forward is that my wager sizes will be changing. I was originally using 1.5% of my initial bankroll as a unit size. Now that the bankroll has increased by about 50%, my new unit size = 1.5x my old unit size. BUT, since it would be pretty confusing to keep saying "1 unit" when it means a different amount of money in week 3 than it did in week 2, I will still be marking my unit sizes the same in these threads.

What does this mean? If you see a bet from me that is a 1.5 unit play, that is the same confidence that I would have had in a 1 unit play previously. A 3 unit play now would be the same as a 2 unit play earlier. Hopefully, that makes sense and won't create problems for people trying to understand why it is that I'm betting more.

I figure that this will help me achieve closer to a pure Kelly Criterion profit/loss come the end of the season. I had thought about using the Kelly exclusively, but then just uh...didn't. hah.

Anyway, on to the games!

---

Tennessee Titans -5 (+117)
6 units at matchbook

Ugh...I hate betting against my team, but I don't think that the Texans have adequately prepared for this game. Lots of them had homes damaged in the hurricane and families that took serious damage as well. The roof of Mario William's mom's house got completely ripped off. Travis Johnson (starting DT)'s house got flooded. Owen Daniel's (starting TE) place got trashed as well, though not as badly as TJ's. I know people might be thinking that we're coming off a "bye" week (hah at that notion), but we're not. It's almost like a short week for us, since we didn't have that extra week to prepare for the Titans (we were preparing for the Ravens), and out players have had to deal with a natural disaster in the city in addition to worrying about the game on Sunday.

Meanwhile, this is still a rivalry game for both teams, and I think that Tennessee won't have any pity on us as far as the hurricane is concerned. Their mindsets will be more ready for the game, and they will be able to maintain their intensity longer (compared to Texans players whose thoughts may still be of home and how they're going to fix it). Couple that with the fact that I still think this Titans team is a stronger team with Kerry Collins in the lineup rather than Vince Young, and I think that a line of -5, especially at the +money that I was able to effectively get from matchbook, makes this a strong bet.

Plus, I don't see any reason why our defensive struggles shouldn't continue against Tennessee. If Fisher figures out that if you throw at Reeves, you'll get first downs more often than not, we're scrwed. And the Titans defense is strong enough to stifle our run game, again forcing us to rely on Matt Schaub to carry the load. He's a good QB, but I'm not sure that our o-line is up to the task of proteting him long enough for good things to happen.

(remember, this 6 unit play has the same confidence level of a 4 unit play earlier)

IND/JAX UNDER 42 (-110)
3 units at theGreek

Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand why the total is at 42, when the Jaguars are still signing free agents to start on their offensive line and the Colts starting LT is out, starting C is probably out, and one of their main inside weapons (TE) is probably going to be limited if playing or will be out. I surely do wish that Sanders was still playing, because the Colts defense is an entirely different animal without him, but hopefully, the rest of the IND defense will be able to step up in his absence. This total should have come out at closer to 37.5; I'll make the under bet with two nonexistent offensive lines when it's as high as 42.

Pittsburgh Steelers M/L (+173.46
1.5 units at Matchbook

That Eagles/Cowboys matchup last week sure was something, eh? You know both teams spent the entirety of last week getting ready and pumping themselves up for that MNF game. I think that both of them will suffer somewhat of a hangover this Sunday, especially with one less day to prepare compared to their opponents. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a strong, strong team that I can think can easily go toe to toe with the Eagles. at +170, I think the Steelers win this game often enough to make this bet +EV. I probably would have let this bet go, seeing as I thought the line should have been at -3 and it showed up at -3.5, but for the short week and my belief that the Eagles won't be able to get as "up" for this game as they were during their heartbreaking loss to the Dallas Cowboys this last Monday.

Green Bay Packers +3 (-105)
1.5 units at BetTrojan

So, with GB a +3 home dog, the oddsmaker are effectively saying that if this game was played in Dallas, the line would be DAL -9?!! DAL is good; but not leaps and bounds ahead of the competition good. I was going to take the moneyline, but M/L at +140 seemed less appealing to me than getting 3 points at only 45 cents, especially since Pinnacle is holding DAL -3 (+104) out there, which means that they'd take GB +3 at (-104). In fact, last night when I made the bet, the price on DAL -3 at Pinnacle was +105. If Pinnacle is willing to take it, so am I.

This is still a matchup of undefeated teams. and last year, both of these teams made the playoffs at the top of the NFC. The Packers bring back largely the same personnel; I don't see why Dallas should be spotting GB anything when visiting Lambeau. Couple that with the MNF hangover that I was talking about above, and I think this is a good bet. I may yet make it a two unit bet (although then my average odds would be -107.5 as the best line I see out there now is -110.

[ensign_lee]

You can read quotes of how the hurricane affected the Texans players here. Most notable for me were:

Coach Kubiak
(on if there are any players that had to move from their homes) “Yeah, we had quite a few. I can’t put a number on it. We’ve had quite a few guys that were out of town and have come back. Some of them have had to move into hotels because various guys have had that much damage. But like I said, everybody in the state has the same problems and we’re just going to all have to rally together and figure out a way to make it work, and we’ll do that.”

Owen Daniels
(on the difficulty of refocusing on the game) “It was weird being away from football for three or four days and really having your focus be completely off of it. I couldn’t help but not think about football because I had to think about fixing my house and making sure my neighbors were alright. I can’t do anything about what happened, so all I can do now is focus and get ready for this week.”

Andre Johnson
(on how hard it is to return to practice after the hurricane) “It’s really difficult. You may not have any damage, but it’s still hard to come out here because you think about the people who do have damage and the people that lost their houses and are in hotels. You know you easily could have been in that situation. At this time, right now, it’s a devastating time. All we can do is rally together, we here and people in the city, and just go out and help each other as much as we can.”

Matt Schaub

(on whether it’s difficult to think about the game plan right now) “It’s actually – it is tough. Mentally, it’s very challenging, but at the same time, it’s part of our job and it’s what we’re here to do. Given what we’ve had to deal with the last three or four days, it’s kind of nice to come out and think about X’s and O’s and game plans, so that’s the way we have to look at it.”

(on the challenge of focusing on the game) “It’s going to be very challenging for us, but it’s something that, collectively, I think we can get done. It’s very hard on an individual basis, but as a group, if we just stick together and hang tight and keep working through things, we’re going to be just fine. That’s what we have to focus on coming out here every day: when we’re between the white lines or in the meeting rooms, we focus on what it takes to be successful at our jobs this week, which will not only be therapeutic for us, but for the city and for our fans out there. But once we get outside the facility and back home, that’s when we can think about those personal things that we have to deal with.”

Mario Williams
(on how difficult it is to go back to work with this going on in his personal life) “It’s really difficult. Not just for myself, but everybody, you’ve got to go to work and you’ve got to make a living but at the same time in the back of your mind you’re thinking, ‘I hope my place is still alright,’ and you see on the news about all the looters and things like that that’s going on. It’s difficult, but you have to block it out a little bit.”

I was originally thinking it would be a 3 unit play, but reading all this makes me think that, despite the good front some of the players are putting on, they have been distracted this week. So I added to the bet.

[ensign_lee]

Adding:

New York Giants -13 (+104.86)
1.5 units at matchbook

New England Patriots -12.5 (+100)
1.5 units at matchbook

Seattle Seahawks -9.5 (+100.94)
1.5 units at matchbook

All these are pure system plays. I'm playing the whole "good team facing a bad team before a bye" angle, where the good team (team that's favored) has both the talent and motivation to play well enough to destroy the other team, making even a large spread like this coverable. We'll see what happens.

(More discussion of this system at http://64.40.117.4/showthread.php?t=614576&page=2 . Props to quantumleap for bringing it up and reminding me that it exists. hah)

Not all of them make sense to me, especially the Seattle bet, but to quote somebody from that thread "that's the key to trend plays; systems; you just play them. you do not think" haha

[ensign_lee]

Detroit Lions M/L (+201.88)
1.5 units at Matchbook

Just got my offer at matchbook accepted. The SF 49'ers are not good enough to be spotting *anyone* 5-6 points. The 49ers and Lions are about equal in terms of team talent. The line should be at about -3, and the M/L should be at about +135.

Detroit Lions only have to win about once every 3 times here to make this bet even in terms of value. I think they win this closer to half the time. +200 is +EV in my book.

Go Bob's team, go!

[ensign_lee]

Last one for the day (probably)

New Orleans Saints M/L +213.64
1.5 units at Matchbook

I think this is a matchup of two evenly matched teams. I'll take +200 when I think the game is about a toss up, especially in a game where a shootout is expected. More points = more volatility.

Yeeesh. I think I overextended myself today with too many bets, but uh...here we go anyway.

[bigred]

Honestly, I have no idea what any of the M/L or anything means but its fun to read these threads.

[ensign_lee]

Goddammit Bob. Your team needs to step it the fuck up.

[Trikflow77]

rough week man the lions look bad.

[WildBobAA]

lol never bet on any game involving the Lions fish

[bigspenda73]

hou pick saved u from disaster

[ensign_lee]

Meh. Minus the detroit lions pick, I think I'd make all those picks again. I should have remembered that they would be so disappointed after coming *oh so close* in the GB game.

The system plays are based on a system where I'm not supposed to analyze the picks.

The Saints covered, and came within 2 points of winning. I thought this game was a coinflip - it was. I lost. Meh.

"I am appalled at the bullshitism of that cover." lol. I heard this before and hah I got to use it. 10 points in the last 1:30 of the Colts game to push the game over. OWTF. Peyton Manning and the Colts o-coordinator are idiots for the plays they called inside the 5 to score. Two passing plays? Even if they're successful, you score and you leave plenty of time left on the clock. If they're not, the clock stops. WTF are you doing?!

Oh well. Shit happens. And I definitely overextended myself on the games, I think. But yeah.

Can't believe how crazy close the Titans game came to pushing my bet. Man, that woulda sucked. Pushing my bet and my team losing. Blah.

And this after I had Toledo on the M/L before and they went for two to win the game and lost. hah. can't win coinflips. d'oh. Boooh for bad variance.

[yourfather]

I know you post your picks and whatnot, but here are my early thoughts for next week, your thoughts about my thoughts appreciated if so inclined LOL runonsentence.

Tenn, GB, Cinci and SD as my feeling strongly picks.

Den, AZ, Buff and Dallas a little less so but still like.

Don't mean to hijack, but help is appreciated and another set of eyeballs to help avoid a trap game or ZOMG dumb pick is a great.

[ensign_lee]

I was thinking TEN as well. We'll see what happens.

Smaller card this week, especially with the SNF and MNF games coming in late because of uncertainty due to injuries.

I'm really like the Texans this week at +7.5 spread and +300 M/L. Getting + money against one of the few teams that ethe Texans have a winning record overall against (and hte only one that we've played over 10 times), plus the fact that Ithey still have street FA's at O-line. Mmm....tasty. GOOOOOOO TEXANS!!!