ensign_lee's 10/12 winning picks (YTD: 26-21, +39.7 units)

[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee


Bets not tracked at SageStats can be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...DlRSHfbA&hl=en

YTD: 26-21-0
Units Won: +39.70 units

Last Week: 5-5
Units Won: +9.8 units

~~~
Wen .500 last week, but it's cool, since I usually take wagers that aren't -110. In fact, according to SageStats (which usually records the more conventional bets that I make), my breakeven winning percentage is 45%, and so far I'm running a fair amount above that: definitely above expected value, so woohoo!

So, for this week, I put in bets early, but then work swallowed up my life. For the most part, you can get lines similar to them now. But uh, yeah.

Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (+181.3)
2 units at Matchbook

Baltimore Ravens +4.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

The Colts aren't what they used to be. But I don't think that the public realizes that just yet. That's why teh line opened at 6, I believe. Their offense isn't working the way that it used to, and it's supposed to be the strength of their team. Without Bob Sanders and a presence in the middle, this defense can't really seem to stop anyone. And yes, I know the Ravens are offesnviely challenged, but I think that Flacco can get the job done here. His showing in the Pittsburgh game is good evidence that he doesn't get rattled easily - I'm willing to bet that if he was ok at PIT, he'll be ok at IND.
I think the line should be closer to pk. The Ravens had bad breaks and some ticky tack calls that could have gone either way to get them to 2-2. The Colts needed last second miracles, twice, to get them to 2-2. I think this is the game where people finally realize this is not hte Indy of old.

New England Patriots +6
1 unit at BetTrojan

Yes, I should have posted this earlier. I'm sorry. But +5 isn't that different really, and if I'd waited, I'd still take Patriots +5. Despite the abberation against Miami, this is still a talented football team. And they'll be going against a team that isn't in sync yet either: San Diego. This game should be closer to SD -3. At -6, value falls on the Patriots. Ask yourself, if this game was in NE, would the game be lined at pk, like this line suggests? or would it be lined closer to Patriots -2, -3? Personally, I think it would be at pk. I may hedge this out, but doubt I will have time to do so. We'll see. I'd prefer to have the NE moneyline, honestly, and should have just hit that initially.

Oakland Moneyline
2 units at Matchbook

No, this bet doesn't make sense to me either. Really. I don't understand how the spread went from starting at -7.5 to resting at -6.5 or -7, depending on your shop. But the fact remains that the line moved through the 7, the wrong direction, with 70% of bets coming in New Orleans. I haven't seen an injury on the side of NO that would make this make logical sense, and this game is the first on the rotation.

This bet is being made on pure blind faith. Yikes. Go Oakland?

If you have the ability to wait until closer to gametie, you can probably get better odds by doing so. I'd do it, but I'm going to the Texans game tomorrow with my little cousin and so won't be able to do much as far as handicapping after 10:00.

3 Team 6 Point Teaser (+180)
New York Jets -2.5
New York Giants -2
3rd spot open
2 units at BetTrojan

Without Palmer, the Bengals lose their most potent offensive weapon. Fitzpatrick is the backup? I don't have any faith in this kid to even come closer to the production of Palmer. And the Jets are talented enough, especially coming off of a bye, to take advantage of the Bengals weaknesses. Teasing through the 7 and the 3 I think presents a +EV opportunity here.

Yeah, this is a public bet too. But the browns haven't shown me that they deserve respect yet and so I'm not going to give it to them. Taking the Giants -2 is almost a moneyline bet, and I think that they can get the job done here.

As for the third leg, I don't really know what I'm going to do here just yet. I probably should have taken Baltimore to +10.5, but uh...that's no longer an option. Plus, I'm not a big fan of teasing against teams who have the potential to explode on offense. I may have to leave this leg open until next week. We'll see.

[ensign_lee]

CRAP. I forgot to translate to the old units.

For anyone who's reading:

remember, 1 new unit = 1.5 old units.

So anywhere above that I put 1 unit, just assume I put 1.5 units. I figure this way, there will be less confusion.

[ensign_lee]

2 Team Parlay (+272.73)
Oakland Raiders +7, UNDER 47.5
1.5 *old* units at BetTrojan

If the Raiders are going to win this game and cover, I highly doubt they do it in a shootout with the Saints. I think the under bet is pretty highly correlated to the Raiders bet, so here we go!

[UG]

gl sir, it's always great to live vicariously through your bets



p.s. I was driving home late the other night and heard a sports-talk show that had a "bet guru" on. He had a fancy website for sports-betting that I (unfortunately) don't remember. Anyway, his "best bets of the week" (which he shared on national radio for the only time of the year supposedly) were the Memphis/Louisville and Toledo/Michigan games.......and he fucking nailed them. Wish I would have listened to him and made some humongous bets. So goes the sports bettor, I guess, lol.



Do you go to sports-betting websites that (try) to give you an edge, or do you just come up with this stuff on your own?

[bigspenda73]

He's like rain man, it just comes to him

I never knew how little I knew about SB until I had a few real life convo's with Ed.

[UG]

MARIO WILLIAMS

[ensign_lee]

Going to finish up my teaser with

Teaser Final Leg:
Carolina Panthers +8

In a divisional rivalry game where two great defenses are present, I think I'll take the +8 points, teasing throught eh 7 and the 3.

[ensign_lee]

Thanks for the responses, UG:

For touts, no, I pretty much never listen to them. Anyone that advertises on radio, telvision, or what not is usually full of shit. Especially the ones that have "Games of the Month, Year, Season, etc" going what seems like every week (or where they have two in one week.

The thing is that if they were really that awesome and consistent, they wouldn't advertise. Why would they bother? Let's say someone was able to hit 60% (which btw is ridiculous) over the long term. Starting with a $1000 bankroll and making a few hundred bets a year (like one a day) at 1% of bankroll per bet, he'd have $1,000,000 in less than 5 years (Might want to do the math on this yourself to get an exact number. I'm just trying to remember off the top of my head).

So really, all the awesome, awesome people don't need to do what touts do.

One of the best schemes out there is to call a whole bunch of people, give half of them one side, and half of them the other. Then, for the people you gave a win to, give them the next game with the same thinking - half of them get one side, half of them get the other.

Eventually, you have a small sample size that ends up getting picks where it seems like the tout goes 8-0 or something like that, and then they go ahead and give the tout money. You never really even think about the fact that he could be doing this.

lol, wow that was long. So short answer: no, not usually. Although fading Lee Corsa in college football for reason or other produces FANTASTIC results, so I've heard and experienced (mine is albeit a small sample size). hah.

I do, however, go to other forums and websites to get info. sportsinsights is a great place to try to see who the public is on, as well as wagerline/covers (they're the same). and then other sportsbetting forums (think ftr, but for sportsbetting) are sometimes a good source of information if you can filter through all the crap and read the actual useful information.

[ensign_lee]

Spenda: haha, nice. Thanks? Oh, and why don't you answer my damn phone calls?

and yes, UG, MARIO WILLIAMS and DEMECO RYANS FTW!!!!!!!

GOOOOOOO TEXANS!

[ensign_lee]

Just found out my offer on San Francisco got accepted at Matchbook:

San Francisco M/L (+190.12)
1.5 *old* units at Matchbook

With Westbrook out, McNabb injured, Shawn Andrews still out, I don't think that the Eagles have the talent to be spotting the Niners 4.5 points in San Francisco. This San Francisco team has impressed me so far this season with their play - they gave the Patriots more of a game last week than I think most people realize.

at 190, they only have to win here, at home, slightly more than 1/3 of the time to make this bet breakeven, and so I think this is a +EV play.

If you wait until closer to gametime, you'll probably be able to get a better line, but alas, I'll be at Reliant Stadium (hopefully celebrating a Texans victory), so I can't.

[bigspenda73]

looks like Vegas will be taking it on the chin today

[ensign_lee]

lol, wow have I gotten wtfpwnt today. D'oh.

I think I'm going to get out of this SD position:

San Diego -5.5 (-112)
1.5 units at matchbook

I'll eat the juice here and get out of this position. So sue me. Who knows? Maybe I'll hit the middle or something. hah.

And anyway, the Chargers are in their powder blue - I try never to fade them when they're doing that.

[ensign_lee]

Also, I lost all my bets, *BUT I DON'T CARE*


WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH TEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEXXXXXXXXXXXXAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNS SSSSSSSSSSS!



YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSS SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS SSSSSSSSSSSS!






ANCE;
ANCE:

[WildBobAA]

The Texans have the Lions and Bengals at home the next two weeks. 3-4 imo

[ensign_lee]

New York Giants -7.5 (+101.94)
1.5 units at Matchbook

to finish the week. Almost felt like not playing this, but I can't let yesterday's results affect tomorrow's bets. Was eyeing this before, and like it even more now.

The Giants have shown they can do well on the road, so the fact that they're road favorites on MNF doesn't worry me as much as it normally would. And the Browns haven't shown any signs of life yet, so I'm banking on the fact that that will continue.

Here we go. Let's see if I can avoid 0-fer (yeah, getting out of the loss last night was good, but it still wasn't a *win* persay).


~~~
Also, poor Bob. That safety is ridiculous. Absolutely RIDICULOUS.

Serious question though, that I think you'd know the answer to - what's the QB situation in Detroit for the next game?

[ensign_lee]

Also,

2 team 6 point Teaser (-110)
NYG -1.5
Open
2 units at BetTrojan

Am thinkign of finishing this up with the Texans next week. Hopefully I can get them under 2.5 for the game by then. Should have just waited on the original teaser to finish with the TExans, but got greedy with Carolina. Sucks, but 'tis life.

The fact that Pinnacle, theGreek, and BetJamaica all have altered their lines to avoid the possibility of people teasing down to under 3 with 6 point teasers tells me that I should try to do that.

[Jack Sawyer]

yo ensign_lee

which is a good sportsbook, or are they all equal?

i'm looking for another one since i do not like bodog anymore (they screwed me out of some money).

i'm looking at beted, betjamaica, thegreek. or should i have accounts at all of them, does not really matter?

help please, im kinda lost

[WildBobAA]

Serious question though, that I think you'd know the answer to - what's the QB situation in Detroit for the next game?

The rumors right now say that we are in trade talks with the Cowboys for Kitna and Roy Williams (I shit you not). So it's really hard to say anything definitive at this point. Maraneli basically dodged all questions regarding Kitna today at his presser (and Kitna was supposed to have an MRI today I guess). Lions forums are blowing up with rumors, like I'm hearing a three way trade involving Roy, Patrick Crayton, and Ted Ginn Jr. Basically some crazy shit might go down.

[ensign_lee]

Yo Jack Sawyer:

I would highly recommend MATCHBOOK. They pay, and they're not a "bookmaker" in the traditional sense. They act more like a broker, matching you with someone who wants to take the opposite side. How does this help? Well instead of paying -110, -110 (20 cents) at a traditional book or even -105, -105 (10 cents) at a reduced juice book like BetTrojan, you usually end up with tons of liquidity and lines more like +105, -106 like the current Giants/Browns game. With less vig like this, your chances ot being profitable improve greatly. It may not seem lke much, but WOW does it add up over time.

PM me before you signup; I might be able to help you out with a sign up bonus for both of us.

and WildBob - do me a favor and keep me posted, please? Even at -9.5, I think I still really like the Texans here, and that's more than just my homerism. Texans - Emotional High, Lions - Emotional Low in Houston, I think -9.5 is a line that is there to make ppl NOT bet on Houston, because when you think about it you're like "what? A 1-4 team is a 9 point favorite?"

Also, another question - how emotionally draining was this last loss to your fanbase? and how do you think it has affected your team? Anything like the Colts/Texans debacle of last week that had me on suicide watch? Worse? Not as bad?

Thanks, Bob.

{edited for grammatical clarity)

[WildBobAA]

Yeah I'll keep you posted, no problem.

Also, as much as it sucked to be totally screwed out of a win by the refs, I think the loss Sunday actually helped the team. These are the deficits we faced in the first four games of the season: 21-0, 21-0, 21-3, 31-0. To come out and play hard for 60 minutes and be in position to win in the fourth quarter was a pretty big confidence boost for the team. I think it will really help them in the long run.

[Jack Sawyer]

tnx ensign_lee

i'll pm you shortly

[WildBobAA]

Orlovsky is going to start Sunday. The Lions are trying to trade Kitna and if they can't get a deal done by the deadline (4pm est tomorrow) they are going to put him on IR.

[WildBobAA]

I'm sure you heard the news already but we traded Roy to Dallas today and put Kitna on IR. Mr. Runoutofthebackoftheendzone is our QB the rest of the season.

[ensign_lee]

Oh wow. My heart goes out to you, Bob.

Wow...

[mcatdog]

Oh man. I never thought I'd see a starting QB have a worse season than David Carr had his rookie year, but Orlovsky might actually be up to the challenge.

[ensign_lee]

I dunno. David Carr actualyl didn't do so terribly his rookie year.

It was his third year where we finally found out he was damaged goods and sucked beyond all belief.