NL50 3b bluffing shortstackers

Villain running 25/25 over 50 hands

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($52)
MP1 ($50.50)
MP2 ($62.95)
MP3 ($57.15)
CO ($12.70)
Button ($5.75)
Hero (SB) ($50)
BB ($11.50)
UTG ($13.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, A
5 folds, CO raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $50 (All-In)

I'm trying to learn this against the $10 stacks so I am better at doing this later
Good? Not worth it?

[swiggidy]

Did you learn anything?

[bikes]

What do you expect him to fold that you beat?

I don't expect him to fold something that I beat
I expect him to fold something that BEATS ME
does he fold a small pair that I flip with?
A9o?

[swiggidy]

This is pretty trivial math as far as poker goes.

Pick a range of hands you think he calls with out of whatever 25% you put him on raising. Doesn't have to be exact.

Now you know FE + PE.

yeah but I don't really have a feel for what kind of a range someone would call here
I pokerstoved and if he calls with his entire range we're a flip
if he calls only with hands that beat us, which is 66+, A9o (in my original range I didn't include 66- so I'm assuming he doesn't raise those) we have 34% equity
but he's folding half of his range

for now we'll discount BB from calling because he's a hudge nit so he'll only call with something ridiculous like QQ+

3/6 of the time we get 2.75
1/6 of the time we get 13.45
2/6 of the time we lose 12.55

we lose 0.57 dollars every time we do this
someone check plz

[Technooo]

Another way to calculate it in your head is to put a number to the # of times bob folds this as to the times that he calls. I say he's calling this about 1/3 of the time, which means he's dropping $1.33 to you every time you make this play, and to break even, needs to win that back when he calls in addition to the money he loses when you suck out (his EV for his calling range). If he doesn't make a profit, then you do.

The other big things that you need to watch out for are the blinds flat calling you with a monster (QQ+); you can lose a ton of money on rare occasions running into monsters here so be careful. Does anyone off the top of their head know what the chances are that one of two players will be dealt AA-QQ, AK? You gotta factor that in.

[a500lbgorilla]

The simple fact is that you're the only one who can accurately describe ops calling range enough to determine the EV. The only reason to post this is because you can't actually do that. Which means you probably made a mistake during gametime. Also, i am drunk.

[swiggidy]

drunk rilla is teh bomb

[a500lbgorilla]

hell yah! hi5!

[badgers]

look at his fold to 3bet % and his steal percent and work it out.

[bigspenda73]

[nutsinho]

oh look its some retard opening to 4xbb in lp with a 12 dollar stack. bet hes planning on folding to a shove a lot.

[spoonitnow]

I'm going to show iopq (and whoever else actually cares) how to do this for future reference.

We're betting $12.45 to win $2.75 when both Villains fold, $13.75 when just the BB calls, $13.45 when just the CO calls, or $24.45 when they both call.

Note: After the rake, we really win $13.10 when just the BB calls, $12.80 when just the CO calls, and $23.25 when they both call.

Let's assume that the BB calling range is {88+, AQ+} no matter what iopq says, so the big blind is calling 4.898% of the time and folds the rest.

Since we're very optimistic people, we'll assume the CO open raises 30% of the time, and only calls with {22+, AJ+}. Then the CO is calling with 8.816% of his possible starting hands, so he calls 29.388% of the time and folds the rest.

So we have a few cases to consider:

Case 1: Everyone folds. There's an 64.387% chance of both players folding with the above calling ranges, and we win $2.75.

Case 2: The BB folds, the CO calls. There's a 26.797% chance for this scenario. Then, 36.376% of the time we win $12.80, and 63.624% of the time we lose $12.45.

Case 3: The BB calls, the CO folds. There's a 6.2252% chance of this scenario. Then, 30.424% of the time we win $13.10, and 69.576% of the time we lose $12.45.

Case 4: The BB calls, the CO calls. There's a 2.591% chance of this scenario. Then 21.379% of the time we win $23.25, and 78.621% of the time we lose $12.45.

Value of Case 1:
0.64387 * 2.75 = $1.7706

Value of Case 2:
0.26797 * ((0.36376 * 12.80) + (0.63624 * -12.45)) = -$0.8749

Value of Case 3:
0.062252 * ((0.30424 * 13.10) + (0.69576 * -12.45)) = -$0.2911

Value of Case 4:
0.02591 * ((0.21379 * 23.25) + (0.78621 * -12.45)) = -$0.1248

Total Value: $1.7706 - $0.8749 - $0.2911 - $0.1248 = $0.4798

Now what you do is go calculate a few hundred of these with different stacks and calling ranges and you will have a better feel for these situations, which means you will actually learn something. Though I doubt you're willing to do that, and that this post is wasted, but now at least I can link people here when they want to learn when to 3-bet shove against short stack opens.