How spewy is this 5bet shove bluff? 200NL

[Sup3rM4N]

Villain is a lagg but not a fishy maniac spewtard
20% 4bet and something like 4.7% 4bet range but only over like 200 hands
Whenever he has raised it to $5 PF he never made it to showdown, either cbet took it down or he gave up pretty ezily...i squeezed once b4 n he folded

My question is, even if i "suspect" his 4bet bluffing with my uber soul reading, should I just muck cuz the hand plays so bad?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200.00)
UTG 1 ($67.40)
CO ($496.50)
BTN ($596.80)
SB ($231.90)
Hero ($208.15)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, BTN raises to $5, SB calls $4, Hero raises to $23, BTN raises to $50, SB folds, SB says "ALL IN", Hero goes all-in $208.15, BTN folds

Final Pot: $105

Hero wins $263.15 ( won $55.00 )
BTN lost -$50.00
SB lost -$5.00

[bikes]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.769% 77.51% 00.26% 637022976 2164638.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 22.231% 21.97% 00.26% 180553668 2164638.00 { 42o }
^^stuff he calls 5b shoves with


He has to be bluffing like 1/4 of the time for this to be an +EV shove I think.

It's certainly high variance but I don't think it's bad its probably very close to neutral ev.

[a500lbgorilla]

love it because i love crazy and i love gamble. also i love drunk, which is what i am.

[JL]

Don't even squeeze with this garbage.
What happens if he just calls your 3bet? You have 42 offsuit! That hand never flops well.

Squeeze with a hand that isn't strong enough to call preflop with, but is much stronger than 42 offsuit. Something like Q8s would be much better.
And if you're going to 5bet bluff, do it with a hand that has the most equity against his calling range.

[thizzSantaCruz]

WTF....42o? Never

[nutsinho]

bbickes, you sure he only has to fold 1/4? this is generally a pretty terrible play, at least have an Axs hand or something if you think he is 4b/folding a lot. and dont 3bet to begin with either.

[bigspenda73]

oh dont make me post the 72s hand nuts!

[nutsinho]

lol. i like my 3bet in position in that hand, but the 5bet was pure tilt. i had been playing and running bad for like 8 hours and was like, damn it would be funny to suck out on dogg with 72 here i think im gonna shove.

[griffey24]

He might have folded in this spot, but honestly, just save this stuff for hands that have decent equity against their calling range at least.

Ax, or any low pair, or a low suited connector even is way better than this hand.

Yah I think bbickes calculation is pretty close to what hero needs here.

If we assume 104 bb stacks:

If we shove and he folds we win 25bbs
If we shove and he calls we gain 104bbs 22% and lose 104bbs 78%

%FOLDx25 - (1-%FOLD)x104x0.78+(1-%FOLD)x104x0.22 =0
25FOLD -81.12+81.12FOLD + 22.88-22.88FOLD = 0
83.24FOLD = 58.24
%FOLD = 0.6999 = 70%

You need a fold here 70% of the time to be profitable, which is pretty HUGE I think.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Threebetting absolute air is fine as long as opp never calls threebets but only fourbets them, and even then its not that great. Just fold preflop christ.

[Galapogos]

Threebetting absolute air is fine as long as opp never calls threebets but only fourbets them, and even then its not that great. Just fold preflop christ.

Haha, this is an awesome post. It seems like you went from it's a good play, to not that great, to awful. All in little over one sentence.

[JL]

Threebetting absolute air is fine as long as opp never calls threebets but only fourbets them, and even then its not that great. Just fold preflop christ.

Haha, this is an awesome post. It seems like you went from it's a good play, to not that great, to awful. All in little over one sentence.

lol my thoughts exactly

[JL]

He might have folded in this spot, but honestly, just save this stuff for hands that have decent equity against their calling range at least.

Ax, or any low pair, or a low suited connector even is way better than this hand.

Yah I think bbickes calculation is pretty close to what hero needs here.

If we assume 104 bb stacks:

If we shove and he folds we win 25bbs
If we shove and he calls we gain 104bbs 22% and lose 104bbs 78%

%FOLDx25 - (1-%FOLD)x104x0.78+(1-%FOLD)x104x0.22 =0
25FOLD -81.12+81.12FOLD + 22.88-22.88FOLD = 0
83.24FOLD = 58.24
%FOLD = 0.6999 = 70%

You need a fold here 70% of the time to be profitable, which is pretty HUGE I think.

I think this math is wrong because if we 5bet shove we win the $85 that's already in the pot which is 42.5bb.
I suck at math though, so can anyone confirm this?

[griffey24]

He might have folded in this spot, but honestly, just save this stuff for hands that have decent equity against their calling range at least.

Ax, or any low pair, or a low suited connector even is way better than this hand.

Yah I think bbickes calculation is pretty close to what hero needs here.

If we assume 104 bb stacks:

If we shove and he folds we win 25bbs
If we shove and he calls we gain 104bbs 22% and lose 104bbs 78%

%FOLDx25 - (1-%FOLD)x104x0.78+(1-%FOLD)x104x0.22 =0
25FOLD -81.12+81.12FOLD + 22.88-22.88FOLD = 0
83.24FOLD = 58.24
%FOLD = 0.6999 = 70%

You need a fold here 70% of the time to be profitable, which is pretty HUGE I think.

I think this math is wrong because if we 5bet shove we win the $85 that's already in the pot which is 42.5bb.
I suck at math though, so can anyone confirm this?

Yep I think you're correct, my bad.

The dead money isn't 25bb's.
Total dead money = 5+5+23+45 = $78 or 39 bb's

so fixing the equation for 44bbs instead of 25bbs gives:
97.24Fold = 58.24
%Fold = 0.5989 = 60%

Hopefully its right this time!