100NL KQ tough spot

[mg0698]

Villian is 16/9/0.8 over only 44 hands , I pobaly put my self in this situation by checking the river but i really thought i was behind at that point.
All comments appreciated

SB: $96.00
Hero (BB): $106.35
UTG: $149.95
MP: $96.00
CO: $153.65
BTN: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Q K
UTG raises to $3, MP calls $3, CO calls $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($12.50) 2 K 6 (4 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG folds, MP calls $8, CO calls $8

Turn: ($36.50) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $20, MP calls $20, CO folds

River: ($76.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $65 all in, Hero ????

[bigspenda73]

c/f river I guess if you check, what's he going to turn into a bluff here?

I expect river to go check-check a lot though

[ATOTHEC101]

meh, guess its a check fold, guy like this can have ak,66,22 fairly frequently, nothing else makes sense that hed call 2 streets with and then wouldnt check behind the river.

[nutsinho]

as played you should shove the river but once you check and he jams its a clear fold

[griffey24]

hmmm weird spot.

I probably just bet/shove river almost always.

As played, no clue. I feel gross folding when I feel like its only to 6's full here, but I guess thats what he has most often. Not even sure A2 or something would call the flop multiway with someone still to act.

Given how nitty/passive villain is, I think once he shoves its gotta be c/f.

[Da GOAT]

imo our line doesnt add up. if im happy firing 2 barrels for value id be betting river too. if we arent firing river then i think checking turn is better. lol i prob wudnt even lead flop if there arent any fish since flop is so dry and we dont get opp to give away their hands since flop is so dry.

[Alexos]

man i shove that river all day, KQ is good enough

[minSim]

Well..depending on UTG I'd fold preflop. If I calledpreflop , I'd c/c flop.

As played I'd shove river, what else can you do...

[paulwright]

I'm confused. To those like Nuts who say river is a shove - is this because of both the action to date and the remaining stacks?
His stats and line stink of 66 or 22...
If we shove - what range of hands do we think he folds? And because of that range - compared to the hands that beat us - is that why this is a shove?
Some help understanding this would be huge!!

[griffey24]

I'm confused. To those like Nuts who say river is a shove - is this because of both the action to date and the remaining stacks?
His stats and line stink of 66 or 22...
If we shove - what range of hands do we think he folds? And because of that range - compared to the hands that beat us - is that why this is a shove?
Some help understanding this would be huge!!

This is entirely read dependent. If you don't think villain will ever call KTss, KJ or some other hand like that, then obviously shoving won't be good.

If we think its possible that villain can call KJ/KT or any other hand worse than K sometimes, then there are just more combo's of possible hands he will call with than the number of combo's of 66 and 22 that are available to beat us.

[paulwright]

So Griffey - are you saying the shove is more for value and less for FE?

I still dont see how we can try for value with TPMK when TPTK, 2pr or better make up a larger range than hands we beat...

I can understand FE a little more to get TPTK to fold - but that seems to me to be the only hand that would. And I still can't see how that justifies a shove?

His stats of 16/9 over 44 hands are enough of a read I think to assume he isnt calling the turn light...

[griffey24]

So Griffey - are you saying the shove is more for value and less for FE?

The shove is 100% for value and 0% for FE!

I rarely expect to see AK here, and its not like we expect two pair or a set to fold at all. Its definitely a full on value shove.

[paulwright]

Interesting. If the turn was heads up - then I can understand him calling turn with a mediocre hand like KJ. With CO still in however, it is equally likely he is just calling to try to keep him in also with a set or quads... Am I seeing monsters under the bed?

As for the value shove - I still dont understand. Are the odds higher that a 16/9 NL100 player will call with a hand we beat OR a hand that has us crushed. Excluding hands we beat that he folds - I would think having us crushed = 75%+. No?

Thanks Griffey for taking the time to explain your thoughts... Value is a known weak area for me... playing for stacks with tpmk v tag does not compute - I would love to check/check the river