200 NL hand

[gametight]

1)

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($364.05)
MP3 ($231.25)
CO ($193)
Button ($284.60)
Hero (SB) ($203.05)
BB ($200)
UTG ($618.05)
UTG+1 ($290.15)
MP1 ($200.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
UTG raises $6, 6 folds, Hero calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14) J, 9, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $12, Hero raises $38, UTG calls $26

Turn: ($90) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $76, Hero calls $76

River: ($242) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $498.05 (All-In), Hero ?????

villain has normal taggy stats.... any other way to play this? Can I fold? Its like 80 somethin to me.

[aka_red]

you called turn so you cant fold river. fold turn.

[bikes]

If I'm doing anything other than c/f on the turn its to CRAI against his bet sizing. C/C is pretty bad.

Reads are pretty fkn important here as well.

[aka_red]

8:33:27 PM) reDzill4r: i think folding >>> c/allin >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>calling
(8:33:43 PM) reDzill4r: honestly tho
(8:33:49 PM) reDzill4r: i think his range for peeling the flop c/r is like
(8:33:55 PM) reDzill4r: tx and 2 pairs
(8:33:59 PM) reDzill4r: and i doubt hed turn 2 pairs into bluff
(8:34:05 PM) reDzill4r: becaus he beets ak
(8:34:09 PM) Bbickes: rly u dont think he can have like JJ, AA or KK
(8:34:33 PM) reDzill4r: i doubt hes trying to get value
(8:34:39 PM) reDzill4r: if he was good i could think about it more
(8:34:45 PM) reDzill4r: but i dont think hes bluffing very often
(8:34:49 PM) reDzill4r: and i doubt hes merging his range
(8:34:51 PM) Bbickes: like when people post hands
(8:34:55 PM) Bbickes: without reads
(8:34:56 PM) Bbickes: or names
(8:35:01 PM) Bbickes: like wtf do you expect
(8:35:20 PM) reDzill4r: vs u knwonk id prob just c/f tern
(8:37:14 PM) Bbickes: hmmz
(8:37:19 PM) Bbickes: actually the more i thnk about it
(8:37:27 PM) Bbickes: if hes turning 2 pairs AA or KK into a bluff
(8:37:29 PM) Bbickes: he can have the pot
(8:37:31 PM) Bbickes: nh sir
(8:37:38 PM) reDzill4r: yeah
(8:37:43 PM) reDzill4r: i dont think he would do that tho
(8:37:54 PM) reDzill4r: because those hand have pretty good showdown value still to pick up the pot
(8:37:58 PM) Bbickes: rite
(8:38:04 PM) Bbickes: he has to be pretty solid
(8:38:08 PM) Bbickes: to turn his marignal into a bluff
(8:38:12 PM) reDzill4r: yeah like at 2/4
(8:38:38 PM) reDzill4r: tehre arent many players here taht would value bet QQ on this board like for turn and river
(8:38:48 PM) reDzill4r: it would be prob river
(8:39:16 PM) reDzill4r: sicne he probly isnt good enuff to bet JJ for value
(8:39:21 PM) reDzill4r: its like air/nuts
(8:39:26 PM) reDzill4r: and his call of c/r
(8:39:30 PM) reDzill4r: is like rarely air
(8:39:32 PM) reDzill4r: nameans
(8:39:43 PM) Bbickes: namean

[ZwiFT]

How was the step from NL100 to 200 game?

[elipsesjeff]

I must not get something here but I get this in on the turn ~ 100% of the time...

[badgers]

redzilla is good imo

[aka_red]

I must not get something here but I get this in on the turn ~ 100% of the time...

im interested in hearing your reasoning.

[gametight]

I must not get something here but I get this in on the turn ~ 100% of the time...

I think I like this line the best. C/f that turn seems soooo weak.... hes got to have a wider peel range than only Tx. Plus he did raise utg so alot of Tx's are discounted.

[badgers]

yes but what's he turning into a bluff on the turn? Is he really vbetting weaker sets so hard? fwiw I would probably stick it in on the turn in play because I'm not good enough to figure it out quickly enough, but when you look at the entirety of his range as zilla has done there's pretty much nothing he can have to turn into a bluff. If you're considering folding the river getting 4:1 why does folding the turn getting 2:1 with reverse implied as well to consider seem so weak?

[STHollywood]

I dont get why there was no 3-bet pre. Wouldnt that make this a lot easier?

[Miffed22001]

put UTG on a range - stack off.
While the board is ugly - UTGs range is not TT and there are few Tx hands
This could easily be JJJ going for thin value

[badgers]

I dont get why there was no 3-bet pre. Wouldnt that make this a lot easier?

villain raised utg and is unknown with taggy stats we can make a huuge error stacking off preflop whereas calling is guaranteed +EV cos our hand is so ridic strong. Calling is std/ good.

This could easily be JJJ going for thin value

I know what you mean but after we c/r this flop i dont think JJ is betting 4/5ths pot for thin value.

[Miffed22001]

I dont get why there was no 3-bet pre. Wouldnt that make this a lot easier?

villain raised utg and is unknown with taggy stats we can make a huuge error stacking off preflop whereas calling is guaranteed +EV cos our hand is so ridic strong. Calling is std/ good.

This could easily be JJJ going for thin value

I know what you mean but after we c/r this flop i dont think JJ is betting 4/5ths pot for thin value.

Im kinda unhappy with the turn bet size being Tx - just doesnt feel right - but id certainly admit we can discuss all day whether opp simply turned KK into a bluff or played Tx pretty well.
Fwiw, are we limiting the hand range to just TT on river? Maybe ATs as i dont see a typical UTG range having any other Tx hands...

[elipsesjeff]

I must not get something here but I get this in on the turn ~ 100% of the time...

im interested in hearing your reasoning.

Miffed touched on most of it but my reasoning:

UTG's standard range headed to turn: 99+ and maybe AK; we beat everything but TT here and I would expect villain to valuebet 99-JJ here quite often.

He has JJ and 99 (3 combos each) as often as he has TT here (6 combos) so its equally likely we're ahead and behind. Given our massive equity advantage over the sets when we're ahead (~88% with ties) and how much equity we have when we're behind by the straight (~25% with ties) we come out with the best of it quite often.

Throw in the extra money in the pot I bet/call my stack off here all day, expect to cooler 99-JJ and get paid off and the river decision is almost inexistent. I am surprised at how many would fold though.

[v diddy]

I guess I'm confused why you didn't 3bet pre flop? Did I miss something?

[Deanglow]

guys shut up about reraising preflop

[Miffed22001]

I must not get something here but I get this in on the turn ~ 100% of the time...

im interested in hearing your reasoning.

Miffed touched on most of it but my reasoning:

UTG's standard range headed to turn: 99+ and maybe AK; we beat everything but TT here and I would expect villain to valuebet 99-JJ here quite often.

He has JJ and 99 (3 combos each) as often as he has TT here (6 combos) so its equally likely we're ahead and behind. Given our massive equity advantage over the sets when we're ahead (~88% with ties) and how much equity we have when we're behind by the straight (~25% with ties) we come out with the best of it quite often.

Throw in the extra money in the pot I bet/call my stack off here all day, expect to cooler 99-JJ and get paid off and the river decision is almost inexistent. I am surprised at how many would fold though.

THose who would fold havent made the change to 1/2 2/4 games fully yet by understanding ranges better.
This is a great post btw

[bikes]

This isn't 2/4 it's 1/2 and this guy is an unknown. I wouldnt give that much credit to an unknown being able to value bet that thinly.

[Miffed22001]

This isn't 2/4 it's 1/2 and this guy is an unknown. I wouldnt give that much credit to an unknown being able to value bet that thinly.

so you limit his hand range to exactly TT - id add becasue our HUD tells us he doesnt have anything else UTG that is Tx other than possible ATs...?

Btw, this hand isnt vs me is it gametight?

[gametight]

No, it was against o_ome or somethin lame like that.

[Bad Beat]

IDK for sure but given he's a random I think he has a nutter hand here than yours. Probs fold.

[Sir Pawnalot]

A double check raise is beautiful here. Check-calling the turn was huge mistake IMO.