100nl - is villian bluffing?

[frosst]

villian's stats are 17/10/3/ with 20% steal attempt
we were in a hand earlier this session that was similar. he raised JJ's on the button, i 3bet AA, he min 4 bets. i flat call. the flop was the same (paired flush draw) i lead and he reraised all in.

also, i have notes saying he will check-raise 3x on a flush draw board with a bluff. also, he will check-min reraise a flopped set.

so, my question is how likely is he bluffing/semi-bluffing here?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

SB ($115.30)
Hero (BB) ($204.20)
UTG ($121.90)
MP ($99.65)
CO ($95.10)
Button ($224.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
UTG raises to $3.50, 3 folds, SB calls $3, Hero raises to $18, 1 fold, SB calls $14.50

Flop: ($39.50) 8, 8, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB calls $30

Turn: ($99.50) J (2 players)
SB bets $67.30 (All-In), Hero ?

Total pot: $99.50 | Rake: $3

[griffey24]

What are UTG's stats? I'm almost always flatting this hand preflop to an UTG open.

I'm also probably checking back the flop as played. I think SB can have a pretty strong range given that it was UTG that opened.

Turn is meh.. not clue what he has here at all. My decision would probably be timing based.

[frosst]

UTG is 22/19/3. i was expecting him to fold a majority of the time, as he likes to practice "UTG is the new button steal". his UTG vpip is 22/22. i was expecting the SB to fold as well, as i was pretty sure he had a low-med pp. he insta pushed all in on the turn. to me that usually means the turn definitely helped his hand, or he has quads and is hoping i have a jack maybe.

[minSim]

Seems to me you want to call this hand preflop, even with your reads.

[jimmy44]

With your read on UTG, squeeze is not bad.
Unless your image is bad, on turn I put villain on JJ!

[Da GOAT]

im tempted to call but fold is prob best

[pocketfours]

I think a 3bet pre is fine, but there is no reason to bet so much. I also think your cbet is too big on this dry board.

I'd fold the turn (if I were you) mostly because if you aren't beat villains play is really horrible.

I wouldn't however put myself in this spot, and IF I would, then I certainly would not fold to this ridiculous lead.

[bode]

squeeze is fine given your reasoning on UTG, but the squeeze size is too big. $15 is fine there. I also think your cbet is too big. I like $23-24 there. Fold turn as played.

[griffey24]

I mean, I don't really get the squeeze pre. Are you squeezing with hands like 44-55 here as well?

If villain opens so wide UTG, then I'd much rather squeeze with all sorts of other worse hands, suited connectors etc.This type of squeeze spot is one where you're either getting lots of folds or 4bet pre so your hand isn't that relevant (unless you plan on 3bet/stacking).

Seems to be that we take down the hand reasonably often with a squeeze with any hand, let alone 99. But the times we get 4-bet we're forced to fold our hand when he's likely the strongest. So now we're folding our pocket pair (instead of playing for value/set value) all the times he's actually strong enough to stack if we were to actually hit our set.

Not to mention the times he's capable of 4bet bluffing us off our hand here...

[nutsinho]

preflop is pretty bad

[XTR1000]

agree with others on your bet sizing pre and on flop. i dont get the squeeze as well, for the reasons griffey mentioned. you´re in great shape vs a 22% opening range and the SB and will have relative position. By 3betting you´re taking away most of your hands value, re-open the action again with mucho dead money in the middle and ruin your implied odds.

[rewfie40]

I dislike the squeeze pre but if you are going to, make it more like 14 or 15

I fold the turn because it would be very hard for him to bluff here considering how strongly you have played it so far.

[bode]

i see the reasoning behind not squeezing here with this good of a hand, but don't we have to balance our trash squeezes with some decent hands? or is that done enough by the times that we actually have QQ+/AK?

[Marshall28]

As far as balance goes, you want to use hands that you would be willing to stack off with and hands that have little to no value postflop. 99 is one of those hands that doesn't do particularly awesome all in preflop against a UTG opener's stacking range, but if it flops a set it does REALLY well. The value in those middling pairs is postflop.

[meeloche]

i see the reasoning behind not squeezing here with this good of a hand, but don't we have to balance our trash squeezes with some decent hands? or is that done enough by the times that we actually have QQ+/AK?

That wouldn't be balancing if you're folding to a 4 bet.

Think about this you're squeezing an 17/10 utg raiser with 99. What is your objective when you do this, value or as a bluff? Does he even have a lower pair in his utg opening range? I probably wouldn't squeeze anything here cause it looks so strong and his pfr is 10%!

[frosst]

i see the reasoning behind not squeezing here with this good of a hand, but don't we have to balance our trash squeezes with some decent hands? or is that done enough by the times that we actually have QQ+/AK?

That wouldn't be balancing if you're folding to a 4 bet.

Think about this you're squeezing an 17/10 utg raiser with 99. What is your objective when you do this, value or as a bluff? Does he even have a lower pair in his utg opening range? I probably wouldn't squeeze anything here cause it looks so strong and his pfr is 10%!

the 17/10 is in the sb, not the utg raiser.