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 what pre-flop raises do to implied odds
Jack and Jill are best friends and poker buddies. They talk about poker all the time, they have read all the same books, and they frequent this and other poker websites to learn to improve their games. They go out together to the local casino and each sit down at a $4/$8 limit table.
At Jack's table, every hand seems to go about the same. 5 players limp in each pot, usually with unsuited connectors, any 2 suited cards, Ace- or King-rag, or small pocket pairs. Only total rags like 7-3 offsuit get folded. Nobody ever raises pre-flop.
At Jill's table, every hand also seems to go about the same, but differently than Jack's table. Players limp in, and then the cut-off or the button makes a pre-flop raise, and all the limpers call. Again, 5 players are playing each pot, and the range of hands that are played pre-flop are similar to Jack's table. Occasionally, someone three-bets pre-flop, and that raise gets called by the limpers (or most of them) as well. People want to see the flop.
The purpose of this post is to demonstrate that the callers at Jill's table are getting much, much worse implied odds on their speculative hands than the limpers at Jack's table. (Note that I am not endorsing playing these sorts of hands at either table; I am simply discussing the odds that these players are getting on their bets.)
So let's look at the limpers at Jack's table. Each of them is paying $4 to see the flop. The average pre-flop pot is going to be about $20, and the casino will rake $5 leaving $15 in the pot. Now let's add some average, run of the mill post flop betting:
There is a bet and a raise on the flop, and 2 callers. This adds $24 to the pot, putting it at $39.
The turn is checked around.
There is a bet and one caller on the river. The pot ends up at $55.
In this typical scenario, the pre-flop limper is being paid off at 12.75 to 1 odds on his or her bet.
If the limper has a pocket pair, he or she is 8.3 to 1 against flopping a set. If he or she has unsuited connectors, he or she is 9.4 to 1 against flopping an open-ended straight draw (11.4 to 1 with 1-gap connectors). If he or she has 2 suited cards, he or she is 8.1 to 1 against flopping a flush draw. You can draw your own conclusion as to whether 12.75 to 1 is enough to justify all the missed draws and busted straights, sets, and flushes, but 12.75 to 1 is what Jack is getting on his money when he limps.
Now lets go to Jill. The raiser and 4 callers put $40 into the pot, $5 is raked off, and $35 remains in the pot. So far, so good, right?
But now let's go through that typical betting pattern. $24 is added on the flop, and $16 on the river. The final pot is $75. If Jill calls the pre-flop raise, what odds is she getting on her money? 8.38 to 1. Suddenly, a small pocket pair doesn't look so good, breakeven at best (and some of those sets will be busted). Unsuited connectors and suited non-connecting cards look terrible. Suited connectors are somewhat better, because you are 4.2 to 1 to make a straight or flush draw with those. You'll still bust out a fair amount of the time, though.
Here's the key. Even in a family pot, just one pre-flop minimum raiser cuts your odds by a third.
Now, you might complain-- "yes, but people bet more into bigger pots post-flop". True enough. So let's try having them bet a little more.
This time, we'll have the same bet-and-raise on the flop, but we will add a turn bet with 2 callers and the river bet with one caller. That adds an additional $24 into the pot. So it stands at $99. What does that put Jill's odds at? 11.38 to 1.
Second lesson. Even if people bet more because of the larger pot, they aren't likely to bet enough to make up for the loss in implied odds when you have to call a pre-flop raise
Last objection. You may say, "yeah but that's limit, and I play no-limit". Well, in no limit it does work differently, but not quite in the way that you might think.
First, let's look at a no-limit table with limpers. This time, we'll make the blinds $1/$2. 5 limpers means a $10 pot, reduced to $5 after the rake. On the flop, a $3 bet is called around, putting the pot at $25. The turn is checked around, and on the river, one player bets half the pot ($13) and gets one caller. The total pot is $51. The implied odds on the limp are 24.5 to 1. That's pretty good.
Now, a no-limit table with a 3xBB raise and 4 callers. That means a pot of $40, minus $5 rake to $35. On the flop, one player bets half the pot ($18), and gets one caller (because that is quite a bit bigger bet than the $3 bet on the table with the limpers). Pot now at $71. Check-check on the turn, and a $36 river bet with one caller. $143 total pot. What is the implied odds on the called pre-flop raise? 16.88 to 1. Your implied odds were just cut by a quarter because of the pre-flop raise.
And in no-limit, some aspects of this are going to make this problem even worse. First, stack sizes come into play. We assume in that no-limit pre-flop raise scenario that your caller will have at least $62 to make those calls. But if he has less than that, your implied odds drift even lower.
Second, unlike in limit, pre-flop raises in no-limit are somewhat more effective in scaring people off. What happens if only 3 people call the raise instead of 4? Well, then the pot pre-flop is $32, minus the rake for $27. Now the $14 flop bet (half the pot) gets one caller, increasing it to $41, and the $21 river bet also gets 1 caller, increasing it to $83. What are your implied odds? Just 9.38 to 1. Again, you better at least have suited connectors to be calling here.
The bottom line lesson here. Pre-flop raises really crush your implied odds on your pre-flop call. A raised family pot is not nearly as favorable a proposition as an unraised family pot. Even with several other callers, you still may be getting severely unfavorable implied odds. This must be factored into your play when deciding whether to call raises pre-flop.
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