TPTK overplayed?

[kfaess]

Villain is 70/6/1.1 over 34 hands. I think this hand was my 8th or 10th hand at the table and he had only folded preflop once.

Also I think the his flop bet was an insta raise but I could be wrong.

Here is the hand history, analysis to follow:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed)

BB ($5.25)
UTG ($7.80)
MP ($14.05)
Hero (Button) ($13.10)
SB ($8.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises $0.50, 2 folds, MP calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15) 10, 6, A (2 players)
MP bets $0.60, Hero raises $1.80, MP calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.75) 5 (2 players)
MP bets $5.50, Hero raises $10.80 (All-In), MP calls $5.30

River: ($26.35) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $26.35

His preflop limp call doesn't really narrow his range at all, hes basically playing any two cards.

On the flop when I hit TPTK I'm not really sure if I'm totally committed. In general I don't think we should be committing with only 1 pair with no reads, even against donks?? So going by this logic, I guess my flop raise was pretty bad here. I think we'd rather just call, keep his range wider, and give weaker hands a chance to bet the turn, while not moving ourselves closer to committment.

Raising 6% of hands preflop could be a range of {88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+} which would allow us to eliminate big pairs from his range, except I'm not sure I knew this at the time (I think he may have limped every hand up to this hand).

So not getting rid of any of his preflop raising range, I think his flop bet/calling range would be something like this: {66, TT-AA, AQ-AK, AT, A6, A2cc-AKcc, K2cc-KQcc, other random FD's, so QJcc, Q9cc, 78cc, 79cc, 89cc, and maybe some T's he doesn't feel like folding, so KT}

That seems like a really generous range considering he led out and called a raise on the flop. Against that range we only have 55% if I did stove right.

When he leads the turn for 5.50 into 4.75 on a blank turn and he has an AF of 1.1, I think its prob clear we're behind here. After the turn lead I guess his range is {66, TT, AA, AT, A6, and maybe some marginal hands so I'll throw in QQ, KK, AK, AcQc}. Against that range we have 38% equity getting about 1.86 to 1, so its a close call assuming the ranges are def correct. Shoving over is clearly wrong and probably only narrows his range further.

Howd I do with this analysis? Obv I wasn't thinking this at the table. My thoughts were more like zomg I have TPTK against loose ass donk, time to get paid. I also think overplaying hands like this is one of my biggest leaks. I could def make more money if I could start thinking these things at the table...

[kb coolman]

Anytime I hear "TPTK too aggresive" I always think "It depends." Against the aggro maniac, it's the nuts, and I'll get my stack to the middle as fast as I can. While your villian's stats suggest a donk, it's the low AF that worries me a little here. His pot bet on the turn may have me wondering if he's got me beat.

This guy limps wide, but his 6% PFR suggests aggression with strong hands. And defining a limp range with his stats on this board is maddening. You will always have equity against his calling range, but that doesn't help us here. What are your post flop reads?

[kfaess]

No reads at all, besides the fact that he was playing like every hand. This was like my 10th hand at the table.

After reading over my thoughts on this hand, I really think the flop raise is pretty bad. And also the Turn raise. Thoughts?

[Illfavor]

I am also typically concerned when bad players act out of character. That turn bet is very out of character. I don't mind you turn ranges except for QQ/KK being in there. Most passive players are horribly afraid of A high boards with these hands.

I'm just going to assume he had me beat on the flop and decided to "slowplay" by smooth calling but it just makes it obvious he has like the nuts on the turn

[kfaess]

I am also typically concerned when bad players act out of character. That turn bet is very out of character. I don't mind you turn ranges except for QQ/KK being in there. Most passive players are horribly afraid of A high boards with these hands.

In general, I think some players play QQ/KK agressively on an A high board because they are excited they have a big pair, and others play very scared with them. In this particular case, I threw those hands in there because I don't think his turn range is all strong hands, I think there are at least some bluffs and badly played hands in there so thats why I inluded them in the turn range.

Overall I'm looking for feedback on my analysis so if you're going to tell me how you would have played the hand, also please comment on the thoughts I laid out after the HH.

If I can get better at analyzing hands that I just played, then I'll get better at doing it in an actual game and be able to actually read some hands and make plays

[Illfavor]

To be honest, 34 hands isn't enough to tell you anything about his PFR% IMO. He seems to be loose passive, that is obvious. He's only raised 2 hands and limped a billion others. So you're correct in assigning him a very wide range (which may include high PP.)

A5 is also in his turn range, and if you're looking for bluff hands I wouldn't add every combo of KK/QQ. How's our equity now?

[kfaess]

I think you're right 34 hands is a pretty small sample. The above calculations included KK/QQ so even with pretty generous ranges our equity still isn't great.