AA considering a fold in a 3bet pot vs nitty semireg

Villain is Kilmarta, I have him at 13/9/2 and he seems pretty damn nitty postflop. The 3bet gave odds for sethunting, so he can have any of the sets, particularly JJJ and 999. I don't think he'd do this with QQ, maybe KK although I assume he'd often 4bet KK. There are plenty of draws he can have, albeit a few less because I hold the Ac.

Shove? or Fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($160.15)
MP1 ($103.60)
MP2 ($104.85)
MP3 ($121.45)
CO ($119.90)
Button ($99.50)
SB ($100.50)
Hero (BB) ($341.75)
UTG ($94.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
6 folds, Button raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, Button calls $8

Flop: ($22.50) 5, J, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, Button raises to $47, Hero ?

[bigspenda73]

I'm interested in what more of the FR regs say because there is no chance in hell I'm ever folding here.

edit: yea, never folding:

Hand 0: 43.547% 41.38% 02.17% 9012 472.50 { JJ+, 99, 55 }
Hand 1: 56.453% 54.28% 02.17% 11823 472.50 { AcAs }

2nd edit: your 3bet in no way gives odds for him to set-mine if you're 3betting light like you should be here.

O also I should mention, I 3bet some reasonable percentage of the time but certainly not out of line. Also I don't auto-cbet, which he may or may not know, so he probly knows my range is fairly strong but not pure nuts here.

I'm interested in what more of the FR regs say because there is no chance in hell I'm ever folding here.

edit: yea, never folding:

Hand 0: 43.547% 41.38% 02.17% 9012 472.50 { JJ+, 99, 55 }
Hand 1: 56.453% 54.28% 02.17% 11823 472.50 { AcAs }

2nd edit: your 3bet in no way gives odds for him to set-mine if you're 3betting light like you should be here.

I think that range is innacurate... like I said, I doubt he's ever doing that with QQ and i have to discount KK due to preflop. Also there are lots of draws in his range which you haven't included. Should still be pretty close to that.

[bigspenda73]

ya, it was an extreme example to prove why I'd never fold

[bikes]

No way in hell Im folding btn vs blind.

[grindinginnj]

I could not fold here.

[wakeup]

ya, it was an extreme example to prove why I'd never fold

uhh but our equity goes down if get rid of QQ/KK

opposite of extreme i think

[Deanglow]

shove and don't think twice

[ZwiFT]

ya, it was an extreme example to prove why I'd never fold

uhh but our equity goes down if get rid of QQ/KK

opposite of extreme i think

Reguardless of preflop action you cant exclude QQ/KK here. Easy shove

[aka_red]

is all-in.

granted this is not a fist pump fuck yeah get that shit in there but at this point the pot is the size of a500lbgorilla and u got dat ace ace and hudge pawt awds

[Miffed22001]

I'm interested in what more of the FR regs say because there is no chance in hell I'm ever folding here.

edit: yea, never folding:

Hand 0: 43.547% 41.38% 02.17% 9012 472.50 { JJ+, 99, 55 }
Hand 1: 56.453% 54.28% 02.17% 11823 472.50 { AcAs }

2nd edit: your 3bet in no way gives odds for him to set-mine if you're 3betting light like you should be here.

I think that range is innacurate... like I said, I doubt he's ever doing that with QQ and i have to discount KK due to preflop. Also there are lots of draws in his range which you haven't included. Should still be pretty close to that.

completely disagree you have to take Kk out of his flop range. Otherwise id call and c/bomb turn GG - he wont fold QQ or KK that he has a percentage plus this is often SC spew from players who are attacking your light 3betting on the flop.
If you think this is exclusivly a set then you need to rethink your preflop game in lp/blinds because your lines of thought are wrong IMO

[bigred]

I'm interested in what more of the FR regs say because there is no chance in hell I'm ever folding here.

edit: yea, never folding:

Hand 0: 43.547% 41.38% 02.17% 9012 472.50 { JJ+, 99, 55 }
Hand 1: 56.453% 54.28% 02.17% 11823 472.50 { AcAs }

2nd edit: your 3bet in no way gives odds for him to set-mine if you're 3betting light like you should be here.

I think that range is innacurate... like I said, I doubt he's ever doing that with QQ and i have to discount KK due to preflop. Also there are lots of draws in his range which you haven't included. Should still be pretty close to that.

completely disagree you have to take Kk out of his flop range. Otherwise id call and c/bomb turn GG - he wont fold QQ or KK that he has a percentage plus this is often SC spew from players who are attacking your light 3betting on the flop.
If you think this is exclusivly a set then you need to rethink your preflop game in lp/blinds because your lines of thought are wrong IMO

Op is in position and has to assume your 3betting range form BB is wider than your normal 3 betting range. I'm AI.

[badgers]

The 3bet gave odds for sethunting

only if ur range is AA/KK which is probably far from optimal esp if he thinks he has odds to setmine.

[bikes]

If he has odds to setmine in this pot you need to 3b alot wider.

alllllrighty well I did a stove and against the range that I think would be raising here (8+ out draws and sets) we're about 50% which makes this an easy shove.

Reasons I still think this is close:
-pokerstove has no weighting option, and preflop I think his hands are more likely pairs than suited broadway types
-I just looked at this guy again in HEM and he raises cbets in 3bet pots about 8%, and I've never seen him showdown a hand where he raised and it wasn't the nuts.


And obv people I am 3betting light here and he doesn't ACTUALLY have odds to setmine but I said he's a bad-ish player which means all he's gonna see is 'oh it's pretty cheap, i've 13:1 or something, I call with any pair'

[v diddy]

I think I shove here as well.

[blown1]

bet aggressive... i would of done that in this position of the game...

[Miffed22001]

this is never 'close' in a blind battle.
If he has a small set - good - 3bet him all day long
If he has a big set (JJJ) - cooler
Anything else is lol and why you shovel it in

[mediumhand]

this all depends on ur 3b dynamic between you two. certain ppl always have set here and some will be doing this with draws...
i strongly disagree u have anywhere near 0.5 equity against a nit @ nl100 here...no way.
theres too much info missing in ur open to make good decision here.
if he is capable of semibluff raising here with qks etc then by all means stack off.... if u fold @ nl100 against standard nit without dynamic/history/reads(he underep pairs,semiblufs,bluff raises flops...)... no biggie. (if this was nl200..this would be hell hard to fold...)

[BankItDrew]

*BUMP*