200nl - KK/fold seems dirty

[Stacks]

Villain is JaRoJr, as 16/9/3 reg with a 4.63bet % (13% from the SB).

My thoughts: Firstly, I call his 3bet some % of the time preflop. However, I know he is 3betting light, and am pretty sure he knows I 4bet light here. That's why I 4bet in this specific instance.

I believe flop/turn is pretty standard. River is pretty confusing to me. Like I've run this HH by a few people and the consensus is to fold. However, villain is really only repping like AA or AK. And maybe 99/66. But there is just so few combos of everything that it feels kinda gay to fold. Also coupled with the fact that I wouldn't really expect him to flat a 4bet OOP with AK, or any weaker Ax for that matter.

Is a call in order here on the river?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG JC-TheGuide ($202.00)
UTG+1 oscarleon ($200.00)
MP1 Sharknebulah ($220.00)
MP2 williston ($86.80)
CO Hero ($205.00)
BTN KidLITE ($139.00)
SB JaRoJr ($208.00)
BB Doikito ($100.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 8 players) Hero is CO
4 folds, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, JaRoJr raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $48, JaRoJr calls $28

Flop: ($98, 2 players)
JaRoJr checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($98, 2 players)
JaRoJr bets $45, Hero calls $45

River: ($188, 2 players)
JaRoJr bets $115, $112 to Hero ($112)?

[BankItDrew]

folding

i prefer a flop bet btw, extremely thin value line.

[Stacks]

I'm not so convinced that I prefer a river fold over a call. I mean, does he really flat Ax hands here OOP to a 4bet? Does he really 3bet 66/99?

For a river call to be 0EV I only need 28% equity. "IF" he has the range he is repping {AA, AK}, then that's only 5 combos. Therefore, if he turns any hand into a bluff, then I have more than enough equity to call.

The more I think about it, then more a call becomes apparent imo.

[kingnat]

Is villain taking this line with QQ?... is it worthwhile to consider what he might be putting us on?...

I think he has AK here everytime.

[Miffed22001]

If im in villains seat your line looks painfully like something that doesnt contain an Ace - however id expect him to river shove if he was bluffing - while instead his river bet screams call me (and from my notes on him he just isnt THAT good) which makes it a clear fold.

However, Fnord keeps saying you should go with your gut more and my gut says call this because you see something made preflop - like TT- KK

Stax - ive seen this guy 3bet 22 from the SB so hes certainly doing it with 99 >75% and probably a fair few occasions with 66

[Stacks]

I think it would be a pretty weird line for villain to take with QQ. Basically because he would be turning his hand into a bluff because I'm not calling with worse here.

While I think AK is a part of his range, it just seems so odd to flat OOP with AK in a 4bet pot. What are you going to do when you miss 66% of the time?

And as far as my range looking painfully like it doesn't contain an ace, for me that is incorrect. If I have AK/AA/AQ here, I play it the same way. Basically I play the majority of my range in this manner.

Also, this seems like a good spot for him to bluff. Mainly because my traditional value range would be something like AK/AA, and because I'm obv 4betting a bit wider of a range. So his bet only need to work like 37% of the time. If I'm folding everything but AA/AK, then his turn and river bet is going to be +ev.

[bigspenda73]

Stax - ive seen this guy 3bet 22 from the SB so hes certainly doing it with 99 >75% and probably a fair few occasions with 66

I don't like this assumption, it's more fundamentally correct to 3bet 22 from the SB against a loose CO opener than it is to 3bet 99.

Edit: meant relative to the EV of calling

[ATOTHEC101]

fold, vil has ak or aq such a huge amount of the time.

[BigPapi]

I agree with spenda. 99 isnt in one's 3betting range cause 22 is. I dont see 99 in someone's 3betting range too often really, cause calling is way better with 99 then with 22.

[badgers]

Fold is fine, and don't even feel bad. You're not even being exploitable by folding since i expect you will play AK/AA the same..

[elipsesjeff]

Personally, I dont think villain has AK seeing this flop ever not at the least being the worst played AK in history preflop. Unfortunately the way you played it you're pretty much forced to fold as its so unlikely for him to be valuetowning you with JJ-QQ which is why I like a small flop bet.

I do see JJ-QQ here a lot going to this flop and these guys like to turn made hands into bluffs all the time so I don't think I'm folding.

If his range is QQ, AA and AK, he's more likely to have QQ and after you've gone to this river he only needs to bet 2 combo of QQ compared to the 5 that beat you for this to be a call. I also think its EXTREMELY unlikely he has AK based on a) the preflop call OOP and b) the number of blockers out there. AA though is in his range and is a good candidate for playing this way.

[elipsesjeff]

Basically I play the majority of my range in this manner.

Also, this seems like a good spot for him to bluff. Mainly because my traditional value range would be something like AK/AA, and because I'm obv 4betting a bit wider of a range. So his bet only need to work like 37% of the time. If I'm folding everything but AA/AK, then his turn and river bet is going to be +ev.

I think you're not keeping in mind all the times you're 4bet bluffing with a hand like A4 or something random that he can also put you on. Are you going to fold those hands too? I think you would be exploitable if you only stack off with AK/AA on this board especially if you play your entire range in this manner.

[Stacks]

Can someone please explain to me the merits to betting this flop? I understand that we can be ahead a decent % of the time, and that we get thin value from QQ/JJ hands. However, I doubt we get more than 1 street of value from these hands. Also by betting the flop I think we reduce the chances that villain will bluff, which as our hand is primarily a bluff-catcher (as we lose to the majority of his "value" range), then I don't see how reduces the chances we see a bluff is going to help.

And I don't think I'm being exploited here. That's not my reasoning for believing a call might be in order. It's because I think just do to simple math, as elipses pointed out, we have the needed equity to make this call. His value range, even if we put hands like AK/AQ in his range which I still believe is less unlikely, then it's really only 5-9 combos of hands {AA/AK/AQ}. To call this river bet, I need only 29%ish equity. If he is betting 2-4 combos that I beat on this river then I should be calling. That is to say, if he bets this river with only {AK/AQ/AA/TT}, then we are correct to call. And I think this a reasonable assumption, because if villain does bet the turn with a pair such as TT/JJ, then come river he is highly likely to think he is not good, and therefore he is likely to either c/f or shove as a bluff.


Another thought... I talked to villain shortly after this hand, and he claims he had Q9s, and was intending to c/r the flop. I think a c/r on this flop is pretty atrocious as the value range he is repping is so small, and relatively unlikely to play in this manner {AK/AQ/AA}. So for you individuals stating that you would bet the flop, what is your plan if he does check/raise? I would be highly inclined to make a "hero" call, for the reasons I stated above. Also if we bet flop, and he calls, then turn goes check/check, on the river we are likely in the same spot. But having eliminated some portion of his bluffs.

[bigspenda73]

If I bet the flop I'd make it like $24 and never fold

I don't see how you can fold the river getting better than 2.5:1. We discussed this very line of thinking the other day, where you think of "am I beat or not" instead of "what are his tendencies/frequencies".

[Deanglow]

this looks like a pretty standard fold

[Stacks]

If I bet the flop I'd make it like $24 and never fold

I don't see how you can fold the river getting better than 2.5:1. We discussed this very line of thinking the other day, where you think of "am I beat or not" instead of "what are his tendencies/frequencies".

Given, at the time I likely wasn't thinking incredibly clearly on this river given how confused I was. So I wasn't accurately weighting his tendencies/frequencies. Basically it was a huge toss-up to me on if he would bluff here, and what his 4bet flatting OOP range was.

Looking back I'm still stumped. The consensus seems to be to fold easily; however, the people suggesting to fold aren't stating any sort of evidence other than because he has it. With the pot odds I'm getting and the very narrow value range, it seems like a call to me. But I understand his range really looks like what he is repping.

[Parasurama]

I think the most important part of this hand is his flatting of the 4b preflop OOP. If he's not playing AK horribly, his range seems like {AA/a whole mess of junk he's going to c/r like every flop because he doesn't respect your 4b}. So, if he either has quads or nothing, it's an easy call.

shoulda minbet the flop

edit: comes down to reads but I'd think it's a call