Hi HSNL i'm new...

[meeloche]

MP is a regular donater to the High stakes community. Plays real spewy and spazzy.

SB is a pretty solid regular who I've played a bunch with at 2/4. He
runs like 24/18/3 and I have never seen him get out of line. We don't really have any notable history. I guess he'll know that this is probably some sort of shot.


No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($1163)
CO ($2667.40)
Hero (Button) ($1321)
SB ($1000)
BB ($2050.50)
UTG ($1000)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3, 3
1 fold, MP bets $30, 1 fold, Hero calls $30, SB calls $25, 1 fold

Flop: ($100) 3, 5, J (3 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $60, SB calls $60, 1 fold

Turn: ($220) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $166, SB raises $460, Hero?

[pocketfours]

folding seems so exploitable...

[griffey24]

I guess he'll know that this is probably some sort of shot.

I think it's definitely possible that he views you as scared money, which makes it more likely he'd semi-bluff you in this spot. As opposed to being on the level where you think he perceives your range as super strong, because you're taking a shot....

[meeloche]

From what I've found when people are taking shots they tend to play more spewy and stationy then normal cause they expect everybody to be bluffing them more. So if anything I'm less likely to bluff somebody when they are taking a shot.

I don't know how many people think this way though.

[zook]

I would always shove here.

[IowaSkinsFan]

you cant call and fold river so shove. I don't think this is a straight up fold.

[Fnord]

Yeah, I'd just go with it. If it's a lot of money to you, that sucks.

[nutsinho]

id fold quickly

[meeloche]

Ok so those in the shove camp, what am I ahead of that he may take this line with? All I can come up with is maybe some sort of turned diamonds or straight draw but even that seems far fetched cause getting it in as a 4-1 dog here with a draw is pretty spewy.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

i don't mind a fold and how can you be "exploitable" when the other player doesn't know that you're folding that? Just don't time bank and say 33 in the chatbox.

[pocketfours]

i don't mind a fold and how can you be "exploitable" when the other player doesn't know that you're folding that? Just don't time bank and say 33 in the chatbox.

I mean from a theoretical perspective of course, in which I assume villain knows how we think.

Folding to me seems exploitable, because IF villain expects us to fold bottom set in this spot, THEN he is going to show enormous profit by c/raising with his whole c/folding range. That's all I'm saying.

Folding can only be good when villain doesn't expect us to fold 2P+, which is a reasonable assumption here. I still don't want to recommend folding without pointing out that it's probably not optimal from a theoretical perspective.

[nutsinho]

i dont think i have ever played in a game where i've needed to use theory to justify a decision.

[pocketfours]

i dont think i have ever played in a game where i've needed to use theory to justify a decision.

What's the purpose of discouraging a theoretical discussion? I'd expect most of your difficult in-game decisions to be at least partly influenced by your knowledge of fundamental game theory, which you have accumulated over the years.

Most of us don't consciously use theory while playing, but it's certainly a useful tool in hand analysis, especially when we try to figure out our perceived ranges and frequencies against an unknown good player.

[sauce123]

for those saying fold-- you must be fcking joking

[IowaSkinsFan]

There's no point in talking about whats exploitable in spots where its obvious our opponents aren't going to exploit us in.

[mcatdog]

i dont think i have ever played in a game where i've needed to use theory to justify a decision.

That's fine coming from you but I don't see how it's a mistake for OP to take a shot at a game because he has position on a huge fish and vs the other players adopt a game theoretical approach in some spots where he has no idea what villain's range is but villain is probably much better than him at poker.

I'd probably do something along those lines if I took a shot at this game.

[zook]

There's no point in talking about whats exploitable in spots where its obvious our opponents aren't going to exploit us in.

two stabs in position at an orphan pot isn't a good spot to exploit?