qq on great river deep vs maniac

[daven]

vs a 40-20 type who has 60% fold to cbet but high overall aggression given how wide his ranges are. Flop and turn seem standard, river i want it all-in, but how? shove and see, or raise to $40ish?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($186.65)
Button ($60.45)
SB ($98.20)
BB ($212)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($75)
MP1 ($115.80)
MP2 ($115.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
4 folds, Hero bets $3.50, 2 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 10, J, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6

Turn: ($19.50) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($19.50) Q (2 players)
BB bets $17,

[HiLo]

I think an almost pot size bet on the river is either a monster or a bluff most of the time, so I'm shoving here and hoping for a call with his nut flush or smaller boat. I know this loses value from weaker hands but think he is calling enough to make it +EV.

[bikes]

Shoving seems uber retarded against a maniac

[mcatdog]

I think an almost pot size bet on the river is either a monster or a bluff most of the time, so I'm shoving here and hoping for a call with his nut flush or smaller boat. I know this loses value from weaker hands but think he is calling enough to make it +EV.

Shoving the nut full house on the river is +EV? You don't say.

Just raise to $55ish he's probably shoving worse boats anyway.

[HiLo]

Shoving seems uber retarded against a maniac

why? What do you put him on that makes you think he will call a smaller raise but fold to a shove? Or are you gambling on him shoving his full range over our smaller raise? OP hasn't indicated that he has a history of doing this.

[oskar]

I would definitely bet the turn. There are more Jx or underpairs in his range than flushes, and most people would rather raise the flop on a bluff.
As played I definitely shove, or at least massively overbet river.
I don't really know what his donking range is, but on this board there are many hands he could have that look very strong to a donk that really aren't... but he's still unlikely to reraise you with just a T or a flush, but he will have a very hard time folding those. There's a chance you'll get flatted with JT, and then you will want to commit seppuku.
At very least I would make it 95.

Just look at this board - every possible hand, except for J8, J9, JK, JA - looks like the immortal nuts to a donk right there.

[HiLo]

Shoving the nut full house on the river is +EV? You don't say.

I meant to say more +EV than the smaller raise.

[AFchung]

i think a raise to 50 is good. he'll shove over with a boat and he might be able to get away with a weak hand if we shove

[pokerfan]

Its just too deep to shove here. Just make a big river raise and laugh when he calls with his pair.

shoooooooove

[ATOTHEC101]

I prefer checking the turn. As played I make a large raise, $110 seems good. His range is fairly polarised judging by his river bet so why not get max value out of his big hands that he's not folding, he never folds str8s, flushes etc though we're too deep to shove imo.

[mixchange]

Turn is a must bet for value.

As mcat said, $60ish and he'll reraise any FH and sometimes an A high flush.

[Miffed22001]

I dont think this is a spot where all of villains hands are nut so id raise to $40 and watch him call with a lot of hands - i cant see shoving being the best play - i also think raising to that means he shoves nut hands over you for value anyway when he does have them

[nutsinho]

if you shove then you are terrible

[daven]

consensus seems to be raise to $50-$60 hoping to induce. Thanks

[bjsaust]

Its not just hoping to induce, it gives him a chance to call with his non-nut (straight/flush/boat) hands, and even some of the weaker ones of those that he might fold to a shove (straights and weaker flushes)