100NL, AK a little deep in a 3 bet tough spot

[pokerfan]

villian is 35/17/1.7 with 43% steal over 99 hands. I hit my TPTK in a 3 bet pot but donkish villian c/r big. Any advice?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($109.25)
SB ($100)
BB ($74.80)
UTG ($104.55)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($196.05)
Hero (MP3) ($137.10)
CO ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, K
3 folds, MP2 bets $3, Hero raises $12, 3 folds, BB calls $11, MP2 calls $9

Flop: ($36.50) A, 4, J (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $22.50, 1 fold, MP2 raises $62.50,Hero ?

[ATOTHEC101]

fold, all you beat that he does this with is something like qj cc, you have a blocker to k10cc or kq cc so his most likely holdings are aj,jj,44 a4s. He does this occasionally with aq but not enough to warrant shoving.

Are you only 3bing him for value? That's what it seems like judging by your 3b size. So obviously you think he's going to be calling with lots of crap hands OOP.

You need 36% equity to shove

fold, all you beat that he does this with is something like qj cc, you have a blocker to k10cc or kq cc so his most likely holdings are aj,jj,44 a4s. He does this occasionally with aq but not enough to warrant shoving.

Board: Ac 4c Jh

Hand 0: 55.047% { JJ, 44, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 44.953% { AhKc }

seems like if that's his range we have enough to equity to shove it in
we can only fold if he does this much more rarely with AQ than with AK,AJ

[pokerfan]

Are you only 3bing him for value? That's what it seems like judging by your 3b size. So obviously you think he's going to be calling with lots of crap hands OOP.

You need 36% equity to shove

fold, all you beat that he does this with is something like qj cc, you have a blocker to k10cc or kq cc so his most likely holdings are aj,jj,44 a4s. He does this occasionally with aq but not enough to warrant shoving.

Board: Ac 4c Jh

Hand 0: 55.047% { JJ, 44, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 44.953% { AhKc }

seems like if that's his range we have enough to equity to shove it in
we can only fold if he does this much more rarely with AQ than with AK,AJ

i 3 bet a little smaller IP (Hmmm, i didnt pay attention to our effective stacks) . Yeah, These donks'd call lots of crap OOP indeed. He is fucking a donk, right? If we include some flush combo draws in his range, then we need to shove over this right on the flop.
27,720 games 0.016 secs 1,732,500 games/sec

Board: Ac 4c Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.149% 43.69% 10.45% 12112 2898.00 { JJ, 44, AJs+, QcJc, QcTc, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 45.851% 35.40% 10.45% 9812 2898.00 { AhKc }
fucking hard to fold this,really.

seems like as long as you can put him on AQ sometimes it's a bad fold

[pokerfan]

seems like as long as you can put him on AQ sometimes it's a bad fold

I dont have the habit of folding a good hand vs a donk.

[mxiu]

35/17? i expect him to show up with worse more than half the time easily. any A, any 2 clubs etc.

[pokerfan]

fold, all you beat that he does this with is something like qj cc, you have a blocker to k10cc or kq cc so his most likely holdings are aj,jj,44 a4s.

Sad, this is QcTc Vs TPTK indeed. My hand reading was good even though i still lost in the end when another damn K came out on the river.
If you give these donks too much credit, you will lose lots of big profits eventually.

[Muzzard]

fold, all you beat that he does this with is something like qj cc, you have a blocker to k10cc or kq cc so his most likely holdings are aj,jj,44 a4s.

Sad, this is QcTc Vs TPTK indeed. My hand reading was good even though i still lost in the end when another damn K came out on the river.
If you give these donks too much credit, you will lose lots of big profits eventually.

QTcc although has good equity vs your range anyway is pretty much the bottom of his value raising range. The only hand made hand he can legitimately raise here that you beat is like AQ, the rest of his flop raising range is QJcc, QTcc, JTcc, A4, AJ,44, JJ

Although they are pretty bad preflop, the aggression factor is only 1.7 which would lead me to think that he's going to call with worse often and call with his non-combo club draws too. The rest of his flop raising range is nutty made hands and massive draws.

He's not going apeshit with worse than AQ or Ax that gives him two pair imo

IK guess what I'm trying to say is that your burning g-bucks shoviong this flop vs his whole flop raising range

[pokerfan]

Although they are pretty bad preflop, the aggression factor is only 1.7 which would lead me to think that he's going to call with worse often and call with his non-combo club draws too. The rest of his flop raising range is nutty made hands and massive draws.

So you are saying that you would prefer to fold AK and avoid these tough gambling spots vs these players ? I also don't take AF very seriously unless I have a large sample size of hands( here only 90 hands). Hmmm, 35/17/1.7 donk still c/r with combo draws.

Muzzard, 1.7 aggression factor playing 35% of your hands is completely different than 1.7 aggression factor playing 14% of your hands

[Muzzard]

meh, I probably not that good at explaining stuff I just agree more with AtotheC, than everyone else. IMO he has one of 3 strong draws or he has one of 12 combos that have us semi crushed and 6 combos that have us totally crushed.

or he has some absolutely random donk shit like 10% of the time

[Muzzard]

or he has some absolutely random donk shit like 10% of the time

I disagree. Two people can have different opinions based upon different assumptions.

or he has some absolutely random donk shit like 10% of the time

I disagree. Two people can have different opinions based upon different assumptions.

you must agree that he has something completely random and unexpected SOME of the time, right?

I would say at least 5% he has like total air