200NL stack off on drawy flop?

[mixchange]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($205.35)
MP ($270.80)
Button ($198.45)
SB ($232.50)
BB ($109.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $6, MP calls $6, Button calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($21) 5, J, 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $14, MP raises to $38, 1 fold, Hero ??


Villain is 23/18 reg with 6.4% 3b


Wouldn't really expect him to flat in MP with JJ or J7... maybe 57.
Everyone pretty much auto shipping here given this is more likely a FD than 777 or 222? Anyone calling flop to get it in on safe turn (I hate that oop)?





PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($244.55)
BB ($838.25)
UTG ($398)
Hero (MP) ($200)
CO ($356.65)
Button ($219.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, J
1 fold, Hero bets $6, CO calls $6, Button calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($21) J, 7, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $14, 1 fold, Button raises to $46, Hero ?

Total pot: $49 | Rake: $2.35


Villain 19/18 reg 3% 3bet


AJ seems about as good as QQ here, except that this player is tighter preflop which makes his range weighted more towards value... seems harder to get it in here than above, annoying spot considering 3% 3b range is nitty and I wonder if this player is really raising FD's or might flat and see what I do on the turn.

[meeloche]

I call and see a turn in both hands.

[Marshall28]

Shoving the queens is definitely a bad play. QQ and KK are not good to stack off on this flop, AA is okay if you don't have the Ad.

I definitely feel gross in both of these spots. I feel I may be leaking by calling and seeing a turn as often as I do like meeloche said. It's just so hard to play these OOP, I like the AJ better than I like the QQ because you have blockers and more of a possibility to improve (all things considered it's probably not likely you're up against a two pair hand so that line of thought doesn't make a ton of sense anyways). --Well, another thing to consider is AJ has a blocker to the NFD so I guess that's why I feel it's a bit stronger of a hand in that particular spot.

Without history or some kind of information as to how these villains think about the game and how capable they are of making moves light here it really just becomes a guessing game and you get owned OOP too much.

Folding might be the best play.

[Stacks]

Just to add, keep in mind both of these flops are 3-handed. The QQ hand seems like a it should be a fold. The villain who is raising has another villain to act behind him. He's getting 2.5:1 on his call; 3.5:1 if other villain comes along. I think it's less likely for him to be raising his flush draws in this spot, and therefore weight his range more towards value (ie. sets). However, if he knows you are playing this tight in this situation, then raising obviously becomes better due to the tremendous fold equity.

In the AJ hand I think it's closer. You now have a blocker to JJ, so are effectively only behind 7 combos of hands. Plus his semi-bluffing range of nutflush draws no longer have the overcard out, which also decreases his equity a bit.

In the heat of the moment I think I probably either call and play a turn, or 3bet/call them. Which I think looking back at is probably incorrect, and a fold is likely best in both cases, but could likely be persuaded differently.

I think that on average villain's just aren't bluffing/semi-bluffing often enough in these spots, and we should just fold. 3betting seems pretty incorrect because we obviously don't have greater than the needed equity to value 3bet in these spots, as this seems like pretty clear barely ahead/way behind situations. Which OOP are a pain to deal with.

Calling plays pretty bad against his whole range. If we call, how are we looking to play most turns? if it completes flush we obv c/f. However, if it's a blank and we check, what is our plan if villain bets? Isn't it reasonable to assume villain will likely check back the turn and take his free card some % of the time with his flush draw? Yet bet his sets 100% of the time. So by calling we are playing incorrectly against his draws by allowing him to have a free card, and also could also get valuepwned by him on the turn when he bets. I just don't see how we can profitably proceed on the turn by calling flop. Can the people who say call turn enlighten me on what they turn line is on different turn cards?

Folding avoids the very marginal spot, and future really marginal spots. So yeah, without reads/stats to indicate otherwise, I think a fold is correct in both instances.

[Marshall28]

I think that on average villain's just aren't bluffing/semi-bluffing often enough in these spots, and we should just fold.

I thought your post was right on except for this one part here. Trying to use an "average" estimation of what most villains would do here is counter-productive. You end up never thinking through spots and never taking into consideration your opponent's image and the type of player he may be/way he thinks about the game.