Concerning FE on turn and rivers

[Sir Pawnalot]

This hand is played bad, and that is not the point either. But go ahead and berate if that gives you a good time.

The interesting thing about this hand is a concept which I have not thought about much in the past; "Reverse Fold Equity Effect". In essence its about the dynamics between general and specific Fold Equity. This is a concept which can only be applied against people who have good understanding of poker, and Fold Equity in particular. The concept is closely related to "readjustments", but on a more specific level.

To the point; Since my general Fold Equity is so low in this hand, it becomes high because of "Reverse Fold Equity Effect". I.E Villain cant possibly think I am bluffing.

UTG (Very loose passive pre ((close to 50%)), floats a lot on flop ((close to 60%)), aggressive turn player.

Hero: Tag, and Lag and maniac. Doesnt think villain is capable of much adjustment.

UTG:
Call 1 , Call 3,5

Hero SB:
Raise to 4

Flop:

Hero: Bet 8
UTG: Call 8

Turn:

Hero: Bet 22, All-in 64.5
UTG: raise to 44, Fold

Hero wins 154.5

I posted results because I know I played the hand terrible, but I wanted to hear what you think about this concept I mentioned above? Can we reverse FE when villain has a good understanding of the situation and FE in particular?

yeah it works also when someone PSBs the river with little money left over and you're pretty sure
shove it in and he'll fold his bluff despite getting like 8 to 1 because he "knows" he doesn't have a chance of winning

[Sir Pawnalot]

Raising rivers are something we do too rarely.

Raising rivers are something we do too rarely.

that's why it's really good to make large river laydowns... because villains won't be raising rivers without the nuts or close to it

[bspahn]

it's easier to see hands with

http://weaktight.com/hand/

[Sir Pawnalot]

Yeah, but it takes shorter time to just type it. And I think the hand is easy to read, but the text troubles even myself!

[bspahn]

its about the ease of reading it as a viewer..

[Sir Pawnalot]

IOPQ posted some words of true wisdom yesterday about big river laydowns after reraises.

The fact that virtually no-one is capable of big reraise bluffs, or big check/raise bluffs on the river, implies that good/decent players will give tremendous respect to these two river raises.

Thinking about my development as a poker player, it seems like I have progressed one street at the time. But the river is probably the street where my skills are the worst, and the same can be said about our fellow villains.

I am BB, and this is the first hand. The fact that it is the first hand makes the play pretty bad IMO, but I love to experiment with EV- moves in order to improve. Without daring into the unknown we will never be able to accurately estimate our Fold Equity. Basically, this session was "training" my river skills.

Dealt to hero, BB;

UTG, (100.47): Raised to 3.
SB, (108.17): Calls 2.5
BB, (100): Calls 2

Flop; 9 USD

SB, checks, folds
Hero, bets 8
UTG, calls 8

Turn; 25 USD


Hero, checks, calls 8
UTG, bets 8

River; 41 USD


Hero, checks, all-in 81
UTG, bets 21, folds

Hero wins pot 140 USD.

I want to leave out my reasoning here, amd I realize I need some darn good FE to make the play EV MAX, maybe around 60 %. But at the same time I feel we have even more FE than that.

What you feel about this river play, if we assume villain is solid and sensible, which I didnt know?

WTF is with donking middle pair? I think villain with AJ/AT raises you just because

I'd continue on the turn because we have a bajillion outs, we are overestimating our implied odds and underestimating our fold equity by checking here

I don't think I like the way the hand played out, we're repping KQ/66

[Sir Pawnalot]

IMO we are repping 66 exclusively. The story I told totally elimates AA, KK, QQ, AK and even with KQ this is a strange line.

The donk lead has nothing to do with me having middle pair. I could have had 23 for that matter. I wanted to tell a story which screamed a set of 66 and convince villain.

The turn is also very non-standard, but I was training my river skills and changed my game do that I would play many rivers.

I am more interested in the river play in this example. How often does he call; AA, AK, AQ, AJ, JJ, TT?

I am pretty sure he doesnt have KK, QQ, KQ because I think he often will try lines which get it all in by the river.

well your hand is actually good enough to call a flop bet which is why I have to ask why are you necessarily leading with it and why is that better than c/c

I think he would call a shove here with AK/AA and he ended up having something like TT/AJ that he ended up bluffing with
it almost seems like calling here is a better play than shoving because he wouldn't bet AQ, and he's unlikely to have KJs exactly because there's only 2 combos left

[Sir Pawnalot]

For me the weak river bet doesnt really scream strength, but it looks like he is trying to extract some value and I dont think its a bluff very often, and I believe we have little E if we call.

If he calls a shove with AA, AK I would never make this shove. But imagine you have AA, AK in villains spot? Would you call? I guess I would have folded. I have almost never experienced someone check-raising the river as a bluff.

I should have posted Hero as having AK/AA, and villain being me and see what the response would have been then.

I am not defending the play- I dont like it myself. I am just exploring some new territory.

it's really tough actually because the way you played the turn is not consistent with a flopped set

[Sir Pawnalot]

Agree.

My standard play is often a c/r on the turn here. But as I said, I changed my game so that I could play more rivers and experiment with them.

I agree that the representation of 66 was done poorly because of turn play. The river all-in shove was instant. Its probably imossible to put me on any sensible range here. If I was villain I would have been completely dumbfounded.

[Sir Pawnalot]

Another hand which deals with FE on river.

HU 100NL

Only played 20ish hands and villain is terrible player, but he is more on the weak side of bad- not crazy.

Hero (117.15) ; raised to 3


Villain (60.38) ; calls 2

Flop; 6 USD


Villain; Bets 3
Hero; Calls 3

Turn; 12USD

Villain; Bets 4.5
Hero; Calls 4.5

River; 21 USD


Villain; Bets 3
Hero; Raised to 18

This bluff is much more believable because I have a wider value range here; AQ, KQ, KJ, QJ ,(QT sometimes)

My bluffing range is probably only AK, AJ here in villains mind.

[Sir Pawnalot]

Yo folks!

Villain is tricky, LAGGY
6 max 100 NL
HERO;

UTG, Calls 1, Calls 4, Calls 4
MP, (169)Calls 1, Raises to 8
BTN, (98) (HERO); Raises to 5, Calls 4

Flop;

UTG: Checks, folds
MP: Bets 19
Hero: Calls 19

Turn;

Villain; Checks, folds
Hero: Bets 42

I dont believe villains line at all, and I feel he is only trying to gain initiative after he sees me "punishing" the blinds.

Edit: I often have the best hand here, but by betting I can also fold out better hands. Villain will often have some Equity when being behind and I dont mind a fold.

[Sir Pawnalot]

Anyone?

[griffey24]

Do you really think you bluffed him here in first hand?

What better hands than yours do you think he's raise folding on this turn for like 20ish more?

[Sir Pawnalot]

Hand 1 was just an example of a spot where we have very low general Fold Equity, and therefore villain must believe we are almost never bluffing.

This was a training session and I was working on FE witout any regards for my own Equity. Replace each hand with 24o if you want.

Better hands which might fold on hand 1; 99, TT, KT

But no, it wasnt really a bluff since I had a good feeling he was putting a play on me.

is it me or would he have won all of these hands if he just called?

[Sir Pawnalot]

Problem with calling is that we give away equity when we are in front and villain has outs. Maximizing INFO, E, FE and EV is the summary of my game.

Also, I think it is a lot of future EV in making people lay down decent/good hands. It is mildly tilt inducing. And since I very often switch from maniac to super NIT, I get extra value when my Equity is sky high.