bottom set vs tight reg

villain is a 13/9/3 reg who i've had some battles with in the past, but nothing too crazy or recent. I think if I 3bet the flop he's only getting it in with better sets or AhKh/76hh/87hh, but i'll lose any other hands he's bluffing or value raising with.
I was thinking of check/shoving the turn but i still think he'll fold his weaker hands and draws because he isn't priced in given we're a little deep.
On the river, I'm a little worried he'll check back AK but I think checking is the only way to make more money when I'm ahead.

thoughts on all streets plz, and interpretation of his betsizing.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($102.20)
MP1 ($52.50)
MP2 ($154.50)
CO ($102)
Button ($58.35)
SB ($111.45)
BB ($77.15)
Hero (UTG) ($138.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, 5
Hero bets $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) A, 9, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, MP2 raises to $16, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($39.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $22, Hero calls $22

River: ($83.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $45, Hero calls $45

Total pot: $173.50 | Rake: $3

[mxiu]

i fold pre but meh

flop i'm a little torn between a flat and a 3b. more inclined to flat vs a 13/9

turn and river make me really believe he has 99 though

[BankItDrew]

i'm never folding pre and if i take this line to the river - i'm never not shoving.

His most likely holdings are Axh leaning strongly towards AJh because of the value on the end. 99 is literally the only hand we are worried about here and it's seldom enough to be trying to get it in as much as possible.

[Miffed22001]

id raise red ones fold black ones preflop etc yada yada. i dont think its a stnd preflop raise, but i dont think folding is stnd either.

Flop raise looks too much like AK to me - which is why id recommend a c/r all in on river
But considering Opp is likely to take a different line with AK that includes pot control (probably not raising flop) then i think this line is standard

In the heat of the moment id c/r all in on river after his bet sizing along the way but to be honest i think thats spewy now i review his likely hand holdings

Btw, if he shows AK here id make a note and play the same but maybe c/r all in on river as an alternative line.

IMO anyone who thinks OMG set stack off - isnt thinking correctly about ranges here and the likelyhood of villain stacking off on big money streets with one pair.

[badgers]

I would 3bet/call the flop. There are a load of draws in his range, he can have A9 some of the time etc. I would expect him to be raising thr flop with all his draws, since it is a flop the you will be cbetting 100% but have to fold a large majority of your range to a raise.

[BankItDrew]

I'd like to add that his bet sizing on the turn and river look like standard value bets... but damn, chalk up the loss to a cooler 100% of the time and chalk up a lost opportunity to leveling yourself.

I would 3bet/call the flop. There are a load of draws in his range, he can have A9 some of the time etc. I would expect him to be raising thr flop with all his draws, since it is a flop the you will be cbetting 100% but have to fold a large majority of your range to a raise.

you think if i 3bet he'll ship his draws? we've no history to make him think i'd be getting it in with anything other than sets, altho he might think he has some FE.

[Fnord]

I like your line against someone who will bet 3 streets with AK.

[badgers]

Perhaps he won't ship all his draws but he will at least shove any AhXh in his range as well as 87, 68, 67hh if he has them. Actually we are considerably behind that range so mehh. Maybe your line is better especially vs someone who will flat aa preflop in this spot.