100NL LP v Blind - TP on drawy board

[Stacks]

Villian is 13/10/3.6, with a 30% ATS, and a 75% cbet.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG DTDTVDAVE ($128.00)
UTG+1 Wake09 ($100.00)
CO dspholladay ($112.00)
BTN sarah45 ($101.00)
SB steel144 ($100.00)
BB Hero ($271.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, sarah45 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players)
Hero ($267)?

[gametight]

bet

[BankItDrew]

4 options:

1- check fold - haha
2 - check call - board is too wet and our hand is very vulnerable
3 - check raise - not horrible by any means, probably +EV. The only concern is being oop on the turn on a wet board with a mediocre hand
4 - bet - for all the reasons gametight mention. Including: most of the time villain probably folds, we are protecting our hand, we are getting value from weaker hands, easiest way to go about this hand.

[Stacks]

My take on the 4 options.

C/F - Obv don't like it.

C/R - I'm not totally against this, but I don't think I can get it in on the flop profitably. If I c/r, and villain 3bets, I don't think I'm ahead of his range. If villain flats, I could very well have build a large pot OOP on a not so great board, that is pretty likely to get worse, with an inferior hand to his range.

C/C - From a theory perspective, taking into account ABCD theorem, it seems if I'm checking, then it's a call. Since we are ahead of villain's betting range; however can't raise for value. However, the thing about this, is where I feel either I don't fully understand ABCD theorem, or it kind of breaks down. There are quite a few turn cards I'm not liking to see (not loads since I have the Kc). If I check/call, I have a weakish range, and competent villains can see this, which leads to me (1) getting valuebet thinnish, and (2) being bluffed often. Which is obviously not a good thing.

Bet - I chose to bet here. However, I'm not very versed in leading tbh. I much prefer to c/c, c/r, etc when OOP. I don't lead a very balanced range, and feel generally retarded when I lead 'marginal' hands and face raises, and don't know how to react. Which is the case here. I knew I preferred to donk here, but I knew I didn't know how to react to a raise. It feels bad to bet/fold here, but at the same time, I feel like I'm probably not going to get it in good all that often.

So anyways.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG DTDTVDAVE ($128.00)
UTG+1 Wake09 ($100.00)
CO dspholladay ($112.00)
BTN sarah45 ($101.00)
SB steel144 ($100.00)
BB Hero ($271.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, sarah45 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, sarah45 raises to $22, $16 to Hero ($261)?


Do we just shove here?

[BankItDrew]

no no no no no
you're kidding right?
Now we snap fold.

[Stacks]

K, well I did donk/fold here. But it seems kind of bad. I can't really put my finger on why, but idk. I'd like to hear some more thoughts on this hand, as this is really a situation I'm always soooo lost in.

[BankItDrew]

I think it all comes does to how often you bet fold on flops and how often your villain raises flop donk bets.

Add that to your hand strength and your villains range, and you'll have your answer.

[Da GOAT]

c/c flop, lead turn

if u lead flop i call raise very often.

[BankItDrew]

c/c flop, lead turn

if u lead flop i call raise very often.

O RLY?
My non-showdown winnings graph is stagnant. I'm interested in reading your reasoning.

Yeah I'd say bet/fold without too much thought. He won't raise with air because he has to know there are a ton of hands you can continue with, his range of made hands owns you and his draws are mostly of the combo variety. You aren't smoked, because people raise donk bets fairly light, but you're oop and wtf are you gonna do but fold? Shoving is semi-ok but I don't thiiiiink it's +EV, and calling will insanely suck.

[badgers]

leading seems bad since without info. The way in which regs react to donk bets differs massively and it may be that he's raising all draws and some air when which would make bet/fold bad. Although our c/c range is likely to be very weak in terms of made hands on this board I think it is still profitable - we crush a lot of his range and he may just give up after a cbet with hands like 22-66, he will most likely pot control with worse Tx etc. so we get to SD often enough.

Also I think if he is going to be barreling a lot we can have some fun when a club comes especially since we have the 2nd nut redraw. I think we can also rep Jx as well if an eight comes. Finally, I also believe he will barrel a K with 100% of his range.

[Deanglow]

you can't play this profitably out of position and you are just proving it with how you want to play the flop

[gametight]

you can't play this profitably out of position and you are just proving it with how you want to play the flop

this too

[Stacks]

you can't play this profitably out of position and you are just proving it with how you want to play the flop

this too

I agree. However, it's not very often we get into this spot. A lot of times I can c/c with a hand, donk as a bluff/value, or c/r bluff with overs, etc against villains wide button range.

4 - bet - for all the reasons gametight mention

[Micro2Macro]

it's not like he's going to raise you with air on this board after you lead (unless you have some sort of dynamic, he thinks you donk air, donk/fold a high % etc), I wouldn't t feel bad about folding.

[Da GOAT]

c/c flop, lead turn

if u lead flop i call raise very often.

O RLY?
My non-showdown winnings graph is stagnant. I'm interested in reading your reasoning.

which part?

[BankItDrew]

You're stalling.

[Da GOAT]

well in a nutshell c/c flop, lead turn gets value from hands he will check back on turn but will call a bet.

donking and calling a raise should probably be standard vs a relative unknown. probably especially a call vs a nit who will likely spaz since they are nits when u give them spots they dont know anything about. He raising range on flop is huge imo, contains all his pure air and monsters, it also has some marginals in there but not all. so KT is ahead of alot on flop so call and reevaluate.

[pokertrainer.se]

I say bet the size of the pot or close to it since it is a wet board. We are likely to have the best hand right now.
Probably fold to a big raise.
If we c/c we have no idea where we stand, and a lot of cards will be scary.

donk/fold is like the worst line to take
I think standard would be like c/c flop, c/eval turn

[wakeup]

if we donk the flop, what should a solid donking range look like?
if we only donk 'marginal' hands as OP said we can easily get taken off our hand

we dont have that much of a monster range to divide up to strengthen our c/r and our b/3b range with

agree c/c vs a aggro opponent is difficult because he can apply pressure on a tonne of turns

[Deanglow]

guys guys guys...

Why would anyone c/c and lead turn with a strong hand? No one, because it is ridiculous.

Bet/folding isn't terrible but c/c down 2 or 3 streets, even though our hand is faceup, is best imo.

if we donk the flop, what should a solid donking range look like?
if we only donk 'marginal' hands as OP said we can easily get taken off our hand

we dont have that much of a monster range to divide up to strengthen our c/r and our b/3b range with

agree c/c vs a aggro opponent is difficult because he can apply pressure on a tonne of turns

WTF are you talking about, all the sets and 2pair hands are in our range along with maaaaybe a made straight if we defend lightly, plus it's easy to have a strong draw on this board and all of those hands will want to donk/3bet.

[wakeup]

so u rarely c/r this board but mainly lead it with ur strong/medium hands?

[wufwugy]

Dean knows what he's talking about

And Kc helps a flop c/c line

[Benzooka]

I would like to stress Deans point of introducing yourself to a difficult scenario by calling oop with KTo. I don't like it against 30% ATS with a healthy Cbet range.

However, in this spot, I feel like our two most profitable courses of action from him are 1)fold and 2)show down for cheap. His preflop stats say a lack of creativity and excess nittiness to me - the kind of player who plays his cards purely for face value. I don't predict he fires more than one barrel, with nothing or thin value. c/c this street, and expect him to check it down with less than you. After two bricks, evaluate a river c/c.