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Poker ForumShort-Handed NL Hold'em

100NL KJ river decision

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  1. #1

    Default 100NL KJ river decision

    Villian was unknown but has been tight for 3 orbits

    I think his bet sizing somewhat serves as a tell.

    Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
    The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

    MP: $254.35
    CO: $104.90
    Hero (BTN): $100.00
    SB: $251.50
    BB: $59.00
    UTG: $100.00

    Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with K J
    2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

    Flop: ($8.50) 5 K T (2 players)
    CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

    Turn: ($18.50) J (2 players)
    CO bets $15, Hero calls $15

    River: ($48.50) 3 (2 players)
    CO bets $45, Hero ??
  2. #2
    If you think he'll play AA/AK/KQ this way, you should call, but I think that is being a bit optimistic. Like you mentioned, I doubt he pots his 1 pair hands on the river, so he's polarized to sets, straights and bluffs. I doubt I could find a fold while playing, but I think it is correct. I fold or 3bet pre-flop as well.
  3. #3
    against the most pessimistic range I can think of

    Board: Kd Th 5s Js 3c
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 31.818% 27.27% 04.55% 12 2.00 { KsJh }
    Hand 1: 68.182% 63.64% 04.55% 28 2.00 { KK, JJ-TT, 55, AQs, KJs-KTs, Q9s, JTs, AQo, KJo-KTo, JTo }
  4. #4
    I'm likely never folding this vs an unknown. As spenda pointed out, it's a pretty close situation. If I think I'm in a close situation, I generally lean towards calling early on to get reads on villain... though I have stationy tendencies.
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  5. #5
    I'd folded pre flop, I'd raised after the flop, now I call
  6. #6
    Clear 3bet preflop.

    Clear raise on turn.

    Clear call on river.
  7. #7
    I hate 3 betting this IP preflop.
  8. #8
    bode's Avatar
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    i agree with spenda/griff that its really close and probably call.

    marshall 3betting KJo here seems really bad. why wouldn't we want to play a pot IP with a mediocre hand like this? 3betting wins us 5bb usually, but we are shutting out the vast majority of his range if we 3bet. i feel like playing a pot in position will have a greater expectation, especially vs an unknown.
    eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
  9. #9
    am I misunderstanding the definition of 3 bet? I thought 3 bet meant if you reraised the raise to $3.50 being the 3rd person to bet.
  10. #10
    bode's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by uscheese
    am I misunderstanding the definition of 3 bet? I thought 3 bet meant if you reraised the raise to $3.50 being the 3rd person to bet.
    yes, if hero would have raised pre it would be a 3bet
    eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
  11. #11
    I'd call the river.

    I'm interested that the turn is a clear raise though marshall?

    If you raise the turn do you call a river shove on a spade/A/9 river vs. an unknown?
    Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..

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