Another asshole reg

[BankItDrew]

Villain is Paf8844, 2500 hands on him, 16% VPIP, 12% PFR, 6% 3bet, 34% Agg, vs 3bet: 54% Fold, 33% Call, 13% Raise.

I hated the turn card before I made my bet because a funky straight draw got there along with AQ. I'm also worried about bottom set. I'm ahead of AK and worse two pairs, but how often are they making this play? What about combo draws? Note stacks sizes are a little larger than usual.

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($200)
Hero (BB) ($412.45)
UTG ($200)
UTG+1 ($237.95)
MP1 ($363.30)
MP2 ($145.75)
MP3 ($200)
CO ($264)
Button ($155.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
5 folds, CO bets $6, 2 folds, Hero raises $18, CO calls $14

Flop: ($41) 9, A, J (2 players)
Hero bets $35, CO calls $35

Turn: ($111) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $65, CO raises $209 (All-In), Hero ?????

[pokerfan]

3 bet should be bigger OOP. Honestly, i'd just flat call preflop and outplay this ass hole. As played, i'd probably call and feel unhappy about it. Hmmm, you put so much money and energy in the pot . Really, its hard to fold this in a 3 bet pot vs a 16/12 guy !!!!!

people who think 16/12 is a reason to stack off light are the reason i make monies

What combo draws can he even have with all those clubs, including your Jc, already out? All i really see is AcTc/maybe AcKc if he doesn't 4bet pre, and he can't think 2pair outs are any good on this board so it's not like he has JsTs. He's probably not shoving QJ/A9, so you're left with AJ,AQ,sets, and T8s. Still, you have like 18% equity against that range and up to 33% if you include him bluff shoving TT... so it's fairly close. Life sucks. =[

edit: 2x post

[Miffed22001]

im checking the turn and probably only calling/betting if i make a boat on river

[pokertrainer.se]

I would fold.
Villain seems like a good TAG according to stats. This is not a good opportunity for a crazy bluff, he has reason to believe you have a good hand.
I would put him on something like this:
Crazy bluff (including one pairs in this hand): 10 %
Decent hands you are ahead of (QJ, J9, A9) 10 %
Straight: unlikely
Combo (Ac and Jc is the only one I think might make this play): 1 %
Hands that are ahead: 99, JJ, QQ, AA, AQ: 78 %
Obviously the percentages are very rough, but you get the general idea.
You have few out so my guess is that you need about 3,5/1 to make the call profitable. And you get about 2,5/1 so it seems like a fold to me.

[elipsesjeff]

5 responses and no one has brought up how horrible of a 3bet this is?

[BankItDrew]

5 responses and no one has brought up how horrible of a 3bet this is?

Pretty sure the first sentence of the first response made note of how they had a problem with it.

[elipsesjeff]

k, i must have missed it; although i think people should be making a bigger deal out of it.

TBH I don't think you can fold but if I were to bet/fold I'd rather check and induce.

[oskar]

The size is not the only reason I don't like a 3b. You dominate a lot of his opening range, but you have to fold against a 4b... or at least it will be a tough spot depending on your dynamic... and you fold out most of the hands that AJ crushes.
I c/c turn, bet river because I think it's too optimistic to expect 3 streets of value from AK, AT(?), ??... on that board after the 3b pre.