How long do bad runs go for????

[Fedora]

So I was a break even player at $10nl. I posted my 10k hand review, took all the great advice, and i started winning.
I swear I didn't change anything, and during the last 3 days, played around 3000 hands, i've been getting the coldest run of cards ever. I'm down about 4 buyins during the 3 days.

I thought it might be something wrong with my game again, so I went through checking my history. And when I replayed the big hands, I wouldn't play them any other way, i made all +EV decisions.

I know people are probably gonna say that I've had way worse runs, but is this normal? A 4 buyin swing at $10nl?

If you're making +EV plays and losing, you win. It sounds weird but it's true. I don't really get pissed anymore when I get sucked out on. I just make a note and laugh because I know I'll get it back and more at some point. Until you can get to this point, meaning not tilting and making bad decisions to increase the longevity of the downswing, you can always tighten up a little bit in the meantime to get your confidence and mindset back up.

A 4 BI downswing is standard. I lose that in a session only to make 7 BI by the time I log off ending +3 BI for the day.

My worst downswing at 10nl was ~13 buyins. I was tilting and playing absolutely awful.

[Warpe]

I've had 4 buy-in swings in 5 minutes

[Stacks]

I used to be saddened after -4 buyin downswings. That is until you realize that it is going to happen over and over and over again, no matter how good you are. Losing 4 buyins is going to hapen in a matter of a single session at times (unless you put a stoploss). Yes, it's super standard. But that doesn't mean that you did nothing wrong. If you didn't play the hand perfectly, then you made a mistake, and therefore didn't win/lose the max/min. So you still need to improve upon that.

[surviva316]

How long do bad runs go for {a million question marks}

til you stop suckin', ldo

[spoonitnow]

I've had 4 buy-in swings in 5 minutes

This

[LawDude]

The reality is-- and this is hard for a poker player to accept-- that it is entirely possible for a good player's "bad run" to go on for any duration. It isn't likely, but it is possible. Just as it is possible to roll an unloaded die and for it to come up 6 some obscene number of times in a row. You just have to keep playing sound poker, no matter how bad the variance.

BUT, the flip side of this is that statistically, the longer a bad run goes on, the less likely it is actually due to variance. So during ANY bad run, you should be marking and saving notable hand histories (for internet players) or making a mental note of hands where you lost significant money (for live players) and replaying those hands in your mind and asking yourself if there were things you could have done differently. Maybe it is still variance, but you need to satisfy yourself of that fact or plug any leaks you discover.

[Fedora]

Thanks guys, I did go through my hand histories and I used poker stove, and I Was always either heavily favorted or slightly the underdog, like over pair against straight and flush draw.
So I kept on playing, played around 2500 hands today.
My swings are coming back, my bad run kept on going until I was down about 8 buyins today, but then I started hitting sets, hitting my AKs, and I ended up swinging to just down 2 and a half buyins. ( Actually almost broke even because I unlocked another $20 bonus)

[BankItDrew]

I've had 4 buy-in swings in 5 minutes

This

+2

I have monthly 10BI downswings and I don't consider them downswings, I just consider them "that time of the month" and just a long breakeven stretch

[Sam62]

500 Hands today and had a 2BI downswing and pulled it out to finish up $0.30. I consider that a good night since I dug myself out

[salempc]

I have recently lost a whole lot of money due to tilting.

I went down to play 6-max 2NL 1 table. It's slow but I'm winning back.

^
Good god make a deposit for the love of mike.

[JustinSKS]

Nutty, I built my bankroll from 1 dollar. I am playing 5nl with 205 dollars behind me.

[Keith]

Nutty, I built my bankroll from 1 dollar. I am playing 5nl with 205 dollars behind me.

Not sure "built" is exactly the correct term here when the majority of it came from one tournament that you werent rolled for. I fully accept you built the rest of the bankroll but you were gambling and got lucky , many others have gambled and bust in similar circumstances.

[Donkafelts]

Started with $0 currently 5nl 195 behind

[Dizza]

Started with $1 jumped to $450 in 1 day and lost everything in 1hand bluffing with 7-2

Started with $1 jumped to $450 in 1 day and lost everything in 1hand bluffing with 7-2

SICK STORY BRAH and lol @ this thread. Why post without looking for anything about a question thats probably asked every other week?

[TonyB73]

I've had 4 buy-in swings in 5 minutes

This

+2

+3

[Sl4y3r]

Im with Iopq, -4BI isnt a downswing... this varience is super standard. Justdont dont let it tilt you and youll be back in no time! Also like stacks said theres always something we could've done better regardless of the result. Goodluck Fedora

[Carl Trooper]

some for days others months and years

it sucks

[TonyB73]

Started with $1 jumped to $450 in 1 day and lost everything in 1hand bluffing with 7-2

Thats what I call quality BR mgt.

[JustinSKS]

Question about the 7-2bluff. WERE THEY SOOTED?

[Outlaw]

Define what +ev means to you in cash games.. sounds like a SNG/MTT term to me.

In other words, make sure you are getting the fundamentals right in cash games. Build big pots with a lot of equity, pot control marginal hands, raise/reraise until all in with your strongest hands etc etc etc

Downswings have little to do with a cold run of cards and more to do with little mistakes you are making along the way that really add up.

Keep plugging away and learn to make less mistakes= less variance.

Define what +ev means to you in cash games..

positive expected value
as in you expect to make money