TT on BU gets 3-bet by TAG.

[Carroters]

Villain is 21/16/5.6(3-bet) over 110 hands. My ATS is like 53% on this table over 50 hands so I'd defo expect him to 3-bet as a bluff a fair amount here.

Does this look okay given he'll c-bet this flop with his entire range. Or should I just fold flop since I don't kno about his barrelling frequencies here. Like I'm really not sure how often he barrelling air here on the turn.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($56.55)
UTG ($53.35)
MP ($50)
CO ($49.50)
Hero (Button) ($54.05)
SB ($54.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
3 folds, Hero bets $1.75, SB raises $5.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.50) A, 4, 5 (2 players)
SB bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($25.50) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($25.50) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $25.50

[dranger7070]

I think this is fine as played. You obviously can't 4bet here, and folding just seems weak given your image. Calling c-bet is fine, I fold to a barrel. Once he gives up on turn its lolcheckitdown all the way. I expect you to have the best hand a fair amount at SD

[jyms]

I think with the amount of hands we have had pertaining to 3bet pots I should point out that there is a difference in 3 bet stats. The std 3bet stat is based on all positions and in the steals column or the pop up on the steals stat on your hud shows 3bet vs steal att. I have seen guys with a 3et stat of 4.5 and a 3bet vs steal in the BB at about 9-10%.

Just thought I would mention it.

[Parasurama]

he's basically never barrelling air, wp

[bode]

pretty standard. he will cbet close to 100% of his hands on an dryish A high flop like this.

[ATOTHEC101]

super standard.

[bigspenda73]

he's basically never barrelling air, wp

so on the turn we don't have showdown value?

[Parasurama]

I don't get what you're saying

[minSim]

he's basically never barrelling air, wp

so on the turn we don't have showdown value?

We have shit ton against his checking range and little/none against his betting range.

[bikes]

anyone else like betting the turn?

[Carroters]

This is interesting because at the time I really considered betting the turn.

Like he fold out all the random shit we beat anyway and has the bonus of protecting against like 6 outs on the river. More importantly though, if we bet the turn and the river we fold out JJ QQ KK here. I think we'd have to be pretty sure he doesn't check an ace here though and I think there's small suited aces in his 3-bet bluffing range that might play this way too.

[Dragon Slayer]

What if Vil fires like 15ish to pot on River? And how do ya'll feel about a turn bet when checked to? I would prob check it down, but I can see an argument for betting turn.

[Pelion]

I think he could check an A on the turn, but I doubt he ever checks it twice unless its like low Axs. Ive been thinking about the river. I think he very rarely has TP+ here and im wondering if theres any bet we can make that folds KK or even JJ. My feeling is a lot of players would snap a potsize or less bet with KK, but how about an overbet shove? Or have we tipped our hand too much by now?

edit: Actually given our image to him, the fact that its button v blind, and the fact that we have taken a very weak line it would probably be pretty bad. Still throwing it out there for thought though. Im trying to look for spots to experiment with overbets as bluffs or value bets atm and I havnt really got the hang of it yet so any comments are welcome :P.

edit 2: Can someone check my maths and logic here. We would be shoving $43 (ish) to win $25.50 that we would not have won by checking so in order for shoving to be better than checking he would need to fold 2/3 of the hands that beat us (assuming he never calls with a worse hand).

e.g. If the the fraction of his range that beats us is JJ, QQ, KK, then we need him to fold 2/3 of this range. i.e. We need him to fold JJ/QQ every time. Or we need him to fold QQ 4/6 of the time, KK 3/6 of the time and JJ 5/6 of the time. Or whatever.
I apprectiate that this may be a poor spot, but is this thinking correct?

[nutsinho]

you should bet this like 100% of the time on this river and occasionally bet the turn and river. the reason you should bet is because it is like the weakest hand in your perceived range and you have 0 hands that have no sd value in your range.

[mcatdog]

Pelion, why are we shoving? Just bet like 16 dollars.

[elipsesjeff]

you should bet this like 100% of the time on this river and occasionally bet the turn and river. the reason you should bet is because it is like the weakest hand in your perceived range and you have 0 hands that have no sd value in your range.

fuck

[Da GOAT]

+1 fuck

[Pelion]

Pelion, why are we shoving? Just bet like 16 dollars.

Well like I said i dont think its really a good spot. But I think he will often snap call $16 with his underpairs here since we dont look strong at all (and he doesnt) and we have been stealing a lot already. But he might fold a LOT more for a shove.

Im reading nutsinhos post again and again but I dont think Im getting it. Do you mean the fact that he hasnt tried to bluff us or value bet us means he probably thinks he has showdown value in a spot where we obviously have showdown value. So his hand is likely to be stronger than ours (but not super strong) and we dont have much showdown value afterall?

[Micro2Macro]

you should bet this like 100% of the time on this river and occasionally bet the turn and river. the reason you should bet is because it is like the weakest hand in your perceived range and you have 0 hands that have no sd value in your range.

wait so because of this we should be bluffing with TT here because we don't have any pure bluffs (i.e. no SD value at all) in our range? because if we only bet like Ax/sets and just check back all other (pair) hands with sd value then we take a really unbalanced line that almost anyone can exploit by just c/fing?

sorry if I just restated the obvious but I had to read your response a couple times.

[nutsinho]

in addition to some Ax hands, you will also be checking back the turn frequently with hands like 46s/56s/67s/33 that you peeled the flop with. He probably doesnt expect you to totally float the flop with like KQ spades, and if he thought you might, he'd probably expect you to bluff the turn with it. So on the river your range is exclusively value betting hands and 88-JJ. If you bet the river strong here 100% it's going to be very difficult for your opponent to exploit you because people are almost never checking the turn + checking the river with AQ-AK, and against your range JJ-KK does not have enough equity to call. If you dont turn 88-JJ into a bluff you are giving up the entire pot a lot against tight thinking players where you could completely fuck them using game theory.

[Da GOAT]

POTD tho it seems so easy when its pointed out. thx nuts.

[Pelion]

in addition to some Ax hands, you will also be checking back the turn frequently with hands like 46s/56s/67s/33 that you peeled the flop with. He probably doesnt expect you to totally float the flop with like KQ spades, and if he thought you might, he'd probably expect you to bluff the turn with it. So on the river your range is exclusively value betting hands and 88-JJ. If you bet the river strong here 100% it's going to be very difficult for your opponent to exploit you because people are almost never checking the turn + checking the river with AQ-AK, and against your range JJ-KK does not have enough equity to call. If you dont turn 88-JJ into a bluff you are giving up the entire pot a lot against tight thinking players where you could completely fuck them using game theory.

oooh ok i get it. Im not sure how often he puts low SCs or even 22/33 in our range for calling a 3bet here though really. If he views us as a pretty typical 50NL tag, they arent going to be in there all that often I dont think.

[mcatdog]

I just want to say that understanding the logic in nutsinho's post and applying it constantly was probably my biggest step forward in learning to play postflop.

Well like I said i dont think its really a good spot. But I think he will often snap call $16 with his underpairs here since we dont look strong at all (and he doesnt) and we have been stealing a lot already

We don't look like we have a nutted hand but we do look like we have a weak ace, which is stronger than 2nd pair, so I don't see why he would call. I'm sure he won't fold an ace but the point of this bluff is that he doesn't have one very often. It's a big mistake to only bluff when you can represent the nuts. Bluffs representing a thin value bet are often times more effective and should be attempted more often IMO.