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Effective stack is $82 on the flop. If we bet, we obv have to call a shove as we will only need something like 24% equity (given we bet $30). However, this doesn't mean the bet is +EV. We have little fold equity against his range, as we expect him to shove AK preflop, and have a range of something like TT+ here. And we simply don't have the needed equity to valuebet against his felting range. C/f seems like the only viable option. And I agree $20.50 is a bit too large of a 3bet. I think $16-$17 is fine here.
I think his range is going to be weighted more towards KK-AA than TT-QQ/AK. This could be wrong, but given how large the pot size is going to be on the flop, if he intends to continue with TT-QQ, especially AK, he should just shove preflop, as they are more vulnerable postflop, and to call preflop to fold on a fair amount of flops just seems gross. Say calling JJ, then seeing a Q/K/A flop, and not being able to call profitably because your pot committed if you do, as well as shoving being gross because you are always crushed when called is uber gay. Especially when the SPR is less than 2.
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