100NL, good bluffing opportunity?

[pokerfan]

villian is 17/11/5 over 400 hands. His fold to cbet% is 55%.It seems that i have a few nut hands in my flop raising and turn follow-up range? Any thoughts on this play?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($100)
CO ($100)
Hero (Button) ($101)
SB ($101.55)
BB ($204.50)
UTG ($180.60)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($81.55)
MP2 ($128.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 9
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $4, 4 folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 6, 8, 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $7, Hero raises $22, UTG+1 calls $15

Turn: ($53.50) J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $36

[daven]

i don't like it.
Villain's range to bet-call flop is overpairs and flushdraws, right?
so, the flush draws hit. The overpairs are looking stubborn, especially if one of them is a heart.

I'd like to know villain's cbet frequency.
You would take a line like this with a set, secure in the knowledge that he will be calling down a lot for stacks. Balance is overrated vs most full ring players.

[badgers]

Definitely bet, this is fine. I might make it a little less since we're in danger of committing to calling a shove. I think I'd go for $28, yeah you're going to get peeled a bit lighter or shoved on by overpairs with a heart occasionally, but I think it looks more scary as well as being cheaper.

Balance may be over-rated against mediocre players, but betting as a bluff with equity in a spot where we have loads of nut hands is no bad thing at all.

[Miffed22001]

i think i just call the flop - your range smacked this flop so half the deck is scary to villain on turn.

As played sure its a bet but i prefer to play the flop differently

[badgers]

I think you get barreled a lot when you float this flop since you can't really have much... AA is the top of your range when you call flop and I may even raise that on the flop tbh.

[aka_red]

Definitely bet, this is fine. I might make it a little less since we're in danger of committing to calling a shove. I think I'd go for $28, yeah you're going to get peeled a bit lighter or shoved on by overpairs with a heart occasionally, but I think it looks more scary as well as being cheaper.

Balance may be over-rated against mediocre players, but betting as a bluff with equity in a spot where we have loads of nut hands is no bad thing at all.

I think once you raise this flop you should probably be betting this turn. I think villain check shoving AhAx here would be pretty loose without a decent read. I would flat the flop.

[pokerfan]

Definitely bet, this is fine. I might make it a little less since we're in danger of committing to calling a shove. I think I'd go for $28, yeah you're going to get peeled a bit lighter or shoved on by overpairs with a heart occasionally, but I think it looks more scary as well as being cheaper.

Balance may be over-rated against mediocre players, but betting as a bluff with equity in a spot where we have loads of nut hands is no bad thing at all.

I think once you raise this flop you should probably be betting this turn. I think villain check shoving AhAx here would be pretty loose without a decent read. I would flat the flop.

this play works very well against FR thinking decent players. Its probably spewy vs aggressive mediocre bad players.

[Deanglow]

flop raise is fine and this is the best card to keep betting on

[mcatdog]

the whole hand is fine of course, silly nits

[Alexos]

the whole hand is fine of course, silly nits

[Renton]

On the flop, raise is clearly > call (fold is better than call), but your sizing is unnecessarily large, I'd make it about 19.

But honestly, I'd fold the flop if his cbet % isn't terribly high, his range to bet this board is pretty damn strong and I doubt 100nlers are going to be folding hands to your raise that they probably should.

It's a pretty good turn to bet, but checking shows a decent profit on this turn (about 8 dollars pot equity here + some semblance of implied odds, would a bluff make more than that?). Also betting completely wastes whatever value your hand had if he's the type to check shove or c/f this turn. Again, if you believe that bluff equity is way better than pot equity, then go for it, but don't use having an oesd as any justification for betting, its only an argument against it.

It's just kinda important to understand that betting the turn is a bit of an ABCD theorem violation.

[pokerfan]

It's a pretty good turn to bet, but checking shows a decent profit on this turn (about 8 dollars pot equity here + some semblance of implied odds, would a bluff make more than that?). Also betting completely wastes whatever value your hand had if he's the type to check shove or c/f this turn. Again, if you believe that bluff equity is way better than pot equity, then go for it, but don't use having an oesd as any justification for betting, its only an argument against it.

It's just kinda important to understand that betting the turn is a bit of an ABCD theorem violation.

Is betting the turn in this hand also a bit of ABCD theorem violation considering that i'd surely call TAGish opponent's CRAI with huge A range hand equity ?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($21.70)
UTG+1 ($118.15)
MP1 ($43.50)
MP2 ($20)
Hero (MP3) ($100)
CO ($69.35)
Button ($127.10)
SB ($100)
BB ($94.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8, 9
4 folds, Hero bets $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) 8, 7, A (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, 1 fold, BB calls $8

Turn: ($28.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $18, 1 fold

Total pot: $28.50

[bjsaust]

I thought betting turn here would be standard. You're semi-bluff c/r'ing a gutshot with the additional opportunity to bluff at the flush when it hits. If you're not going to do that, isn't the flop c/r bad?

[daven]

i still don't like your line at all, but a lot of good players do, so I need to try and understand.

your bluff needs to work 40% of the time (the times he calls and you hit are more than outweighed by the times he check-raises and you fold - so we can look at this purely from a bluff perspective).

17-11 types tend to have decent positional variation and not to c-bet indiscriminately. So, most of his pre-flop range is 66+/KQ+/AJs+ - there aren't too many scs or other junk.

I guess he cbets a lot of his range here, but definitely not all of it. Someone with this type of stats knows by now when not to c-bet, even at 100nl... I'm trying to figure out which hands he calls the raise with. Obviously his flush draws cos he's gonna be thinking "lol implied". Good chance he's calling JJ+ here too, sometimes this type of player will dump 99/TT cos they include JJ as well as sets and flush draws in your pre-flop calling/flop raising range.

so, by the turn his range is looking like 66/88+/KhQh/AhJh/AhQh/AhKh (less 99 & TT though, so weight against 99/TT - call it 4 combos, not 12). Is he folding 40% of this range?

I see him folding some of this range on the turn, but calling QQ+ with flush draw, QQ+ without flush draw some of the time cos that's why sets are profitable for us, calling or raising his sets, and calling or raising his flushes. Sure, your line looks strong - but you don't have any blockers to nut hands and his range is loaded with them. Hell, you don't even have that many outs against his range. When he calls you are only happy with 6 of your outs.

How does he react to the turn bet?
99/TT - call it 4 not 12 (cos he's folding these on the flop a lot), and he's folding all of them
QQ-AA - 18 combos and say he folds 9 of them (fair? i actually think this may be optimistic)
made flushes - 4 combos, folding none
sets - 9 combos, folding none.

so, he's folding 13/35 = <40%. I don't think this bet is good.

Yeah, I still don't like flop or turn play. probably cos i'm a nit.

AA is the top of your range when you call flop and I may even raise that on the flop tbh.

sets as well, even on this board sometimes. But, yeah, mostly AA is the top - agreed. Although combo draws can call here too, and they have a lot of equity too.

[Micro2Macro]

well we need to be bluffing this board some % of the time vs a guy like this, even if its slightly -ev in a vaccum.

right?

[pokerfan]

i still don't like your line at all, but a lot of good players do, so I need to try and understand.

yeah, I still don't like flop or turn play. probably cos i'm a nit.

AA is the top of your range when you call flop and I may even raise that on the flop tbh.

sets as well, even on this board sometimes. But, yeah, mostly AA is the top - agreed. Although combo draws can call here too, and they have a lot of equity too.

daven, i agree with you that this play is pretty risky vs 100NL mediocre players who cant lay down overpairs. The ace of hearts would be the best turn card for my follow-up bluffing. Do you like my play in the second hand i just posted above?

[BankItDrew]

1) OP - fold to flop cbet%? typo? How often does villain fold to flop cbet raises?
2) daven - I like your analysis. You forgot to add JJ to your equation though, which drops our FE even more.

[ljove]

I don't like it.I will fold it preflop